Milwaukee Bucks 99 @ 130 Portland Trail Blazers

March 25, 2026 | Moda Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

MIL POR Total
Predicted 115 122 237
Actual 99 130 229
Diff +16 -8 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Kris Murray Pred: 5/4/1 | Actual: 5/3/2
Robert Williams III Pred: 6/8/1 | Actual: 6/6/0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 1/3/2
Blake Wesley Pred: 4/1/2 | Actual: 7/1/1
Pete Nance Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 6/4/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Ryan Rollins Pred: 16pts | Actual: 36pts (off by 19)
Caleb Love Pred: 13pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 12)
Scoot Henderson Pred: 12pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 10)

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
AJ Green SG 33:33 5 4 5 1 0 1 2 2-8 25.0 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -30.0
Ousmane Dieng SF 32:48 16 4 4 0 1 4 3 7-17 41.2 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -28.0
Ryan Rollins PG 31:02 36 4 4 2 0 5 4 13-26 50.0 6-12 50.0 4-4 100.0 -6.0
Pete Nance PF 31:18 6 4 2 0 1 1 4 2-6 33.3 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 -19.0
Jericho Sims C 28:54 12 6 2 2 0 1 5 5-5 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -21.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 8:16 1 3 2 1 0 2 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -11.0
Alex Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. 21:29 8 3 1 4 0 2 2 2-5 40.0 1-3 33.3 3-6 50.0 -10.0
Kyle Kuzma DNP - Inactive
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis DNP - Inactive
Taurean Prince 29:12 13 6 2 1 0 0 1 4-11 36.4 3-8 37.5 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Gary Trent Jr. 18:58 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0-7 0.0 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -21.0
Myles Turner DNP - Coach's Decision

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 25:53 13 5 8 1 0 3 1 4-7 57.1 4-5 80.0 1-1 100.0 28.0
Toumani Camara SF 24:12 10 3 1 2 1 2 1 3-6 50.0 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
Deni Avdija PG 24:55 18 4 7 0 1 4 0 4-8 50.0 1-5 20.0 9-11 81.8 6.0
Jerami Grant PF 24:13 18 2 0 0 1 3 1 7-16 43.8 4-10 40.0 0-0 0.0 20.0
Donovan Clingan C 25:13 14 15 3 4 2 2 2 6-8 75.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 26.0
Sidy Cissoko 15:28 2 4 3 0 1 2 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Yang Hansen DNP - Inactive
Scoot Henderson 24:22 23 3 4 1 0 0 1 6-13 46.2 3-7 42.9 8-8 100.0 18.0
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love 8:24 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Kris Murray 21:28 5 3 2 0 0 1 0 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 22.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 23:04 14 8 0 3 1 2 2 5-7 71.4 3-5 60.0 1-1 100.0 23.0
Blake Wesley 9:19 7 1 1 0 2 0 0 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 1.0
Robert Williams III 13:28 6 6 0 0 2 1 2 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: MIL @ POR
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** MIL 109 - POR 118 (POR by 10, total 227) **Confidence:** 94% **MIL** 21-30 (#12) | Net: -4.0 | Off: 111.2 | Def: 115.3 | Rest: 1d rest **POR** 26-28 (#9) | Net: -1.8 | Off: 110.6 | Def: 112.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.2 **Injuries:** MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Out), Kyle Kuzma (Day-To-Day), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out), Bobby Portis (Day-To-Day) (impact: -8.3 pts) POR: Jerami Grant (Day-To-Day), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out), Robert Williams III (Day-To-Day) (impact: -7.0 pts) **Key Players:** MIL: Ryan Rollins 19.4p/5.2r/7.5a | Bobby Portis 18.0p/7.2r/1.8a | Cam Thomas 13.5p/1.5r/2.9a POR: Deni Avdija 25.9p/7.1r/6.6a | Jerami Grant 20.4p/3.6r/2.2a | Donovan Clingan 15.3p/13.2r/2.4a **Value Bets:** SPREAD MIL 12.5 (slight, EV $0.107/dollar) MONEYLINE POR -590 (moderate, EV $0.096/dollar) SPREAD MIL 12.5 (slight, EV $0.088/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred