Prediction Analytics ENSEMBLE Engine

Based on 7 completed games with stored predictions

Winner Accuracy
57.1%
4 / 7 correct
Avg Score Error
14.6
points per team (absolute)
Grade Distribution
B
C
F
S: 0 A: 0 B: 2 C: 2 D: 0 F: 3
Grade Distribution
Score Bias Tracker

Positive = over-predicting, negative = under-predicting

Metric Avg Bias Avg Abs Error Direction
Away Team Score +5.7 15.7 Over-predicting
Home Team Score +8.9 13.4 Over-predicting
Total +14.6 26.3 Over-predicting totals
Engine Insight: The SCORE_ADJUSTMENT constant (currently -3.0/team) may need tuning. Totals are off by +14.6 pts on average.
Home Court Advantage
Engine Constant
+2.5
Actual Mean HCA
+1.3
Insight: Actual HCA (+1.3) differs from engine constant (+2.5) by 1.2 pts. Consider decreasing HOME_COURT_ADVANTAGE.
Accuracy by Pace

Projected pace from matchup analysis

🐢
Low (≤98)
0 games
No data
🏃
Medium
3 games
66.7% winners
10.0 pts error
🔥
High (≥102)
4 games
50.0% winners
18.0 pts error
Injury Impact on Accuracy

"Significant" = either team's injury impact < -3 points (star or multiple starters out)

No Significant Injuries
7 games
Winner accuracy: 57.1%
Avg score error: 14.6 pts
Significant Injuries
0 games
Player Prediction Accuracy

110 player predictions compared

Stat Avg Error Avg Bias Direction
Points 4.1 +0.1 Neutral
Rebounds 2.1 +0.8 Over
Assists 1.2 +0.2 Neutral
Steals 0.8 -
Blocks 0.6 -
Turnovers 1.0 -
Accuracy by Position
G: 56 predictions
F: 35 predictions
C: 19 predictions
Top 10 Most Accurate Predictions
Player Pred Actual Err
Grayson Allen
PHX · 2026-04-27
 12/2/3 12/3/3 0.9
Jamal Cain
ORL · 2026-05-03
 5/4/1 5/4/1 1.0
Daniss Jenkins
DET · 2026-05-01
 6/2/3 7/1/3 1.3
Bismack Biyombo
SAS · 2026-05-22
 1/1/0 0/0/0 1.6
Javonte Green
DET · 2026-04-29
 5/3/1 5/2/1 1.8
Royce O'Neale
PHX · 2026-04-27
 8/5/2 8/7/2 1.9
Moritz Wagner
ORL · 2026-05-03
 4/3/1 5/2/0 2.2
Julian Champagnie
SAS · 2026-05-22
 9/6/2 10/5/2 2.2
Duncan Robinson
DET · 2026-04-29
 11/3/2 12/3/1 2.5
Carter Bryant
SAS · 2026-05-22
 4/3/1 3/1/1 2.6
Top 10 Biggest Misses
Player Pred Actual Err
Cade Cunningham
DET · 2026-04-29
 24/6/10 45/4/5 27.9
Jared McCain
OKC · 2026-05-22
 8/2/1 24/4/1 18.6
Ajay Mitchell
OKC · 2026-05-22
 14/3/5 2/5/1 18.1
Nikola Jokic
DEN · 2026-04-27
 20/10/7 27/12/16 17.9
Spencer Jones
DEN · 2026-04-27
 4/4/1 20/3/1 17.1
Chet Holmgren
OKC · 2026-04-27
 14/8/1 24/12/3 16.0
Collin Gillespie
PHX · 2026-04-27
 8/4/4 20/2/2 15.5
Kevin Huerter
DET · 2026-04-27
 13/3/0 0/1/0 15.1
Isaiah Hartenstein
OKC · 2026-04-27
 8/8/2 18/12/3 14.9
Isaiah Stewart
DET · 2026-05-01
 9/5/1 0/0/0 14.6
Accuracy Over Time (5-game rolling average)