Prediction Analytics ENSEMBLE Engine

Based on 1236 completed games with stored predictions

Winner Accuracy

70.4%

870 / 1236 correct

Avg Score Error

9.5

points per team (absolute)

Grade Distribution

S: 109 A: 279 B: 210 C: 272 D: 35 F: 331

Grade Distribution

Score Bias Tracker

Positive = over-predicting, negative = under-predicting

Metric	Avg Bias	Avg Abs Error	Direction
Away Team Score	-2.7	9.3	Under-predicting
Home Team Score	-2.1	9.6	Under-predicting
Total	-4.8	15.0	Under-predicting totals

Engine Insight: The SCORE_ADJUSTMENT constant (currently -3.0/team) may need tuning. Totals are off by -4.8 pts on average.

Home Court Advantage

Engine Constant

+2.5

Actual Mean HCA

+1.7

Insight: Actual HCA (+1.7) differs from engine constant (+2.5) by 0.8 pts. Consider decreasing HOME_COURT_ADVANTAGE.

Accuracy by Pace

Projected pace from matchup analysis

🐢

Low (≤98)

0 games

No data

🏃

Medium

567 games

67.7% winners

9.2 pts error

🔥

High (≥102)

669 games

72.6% winners

9.7 pts error

Injury Impact on Accuracy

"Significant" = either team's injury impact < -3 points (star or multiple starters out)

No Significant Injuries

117 games

Winner accuracy: 72.6%

Avg score error: 9.9 pts

Significant Injuries

1119 games

Winner accuracy: 70.2%

Avg score error: 9.4 pts

Player Prediction Accuracy

18408 player predictions compared

Stat	Avg Error	Avg Bias	Direction
Points	4.4	+0.7	Over
Rebounds	1.9	+0.3	Neutral
Assists	1.3	+0.2	Neutral
Steals	0.7	-
Blocks	0.5	-
Turnovers	0.9	-

Accuracy by Position

G: 8953 predictions

F: 6813 predictions

C: 2642 predictions

Top 10 Most Accurate Predictions

Player	Pred	Actual	Err
Hunter Dickinson NOP · 2025-10-22	2/0/0	2/0/0	0.0
Stanley Umude SAS · 2026-02-01	0/0/0	0/0/0	0.0
Tari Eason HOU · 2025-12-29	13/8/1	13/8/1	0.0
Max Shulga BOS · 2026-02-04	0/0/0	0/0/0	0.0
Max Shulga BOS · 2026-03-29	0/0/0	0/0/0	0.0
Hunter Dickinson NOP · 2026-04-10	2/0/0	2/0/0	0.2
Dalano Banton LAC · 2026-02-08	2/0/0	2/0/0	0.2
Tristan Enaruna CLE · 2026-02-04	2/3/1	2/3/1	0.2
Jaxson Hayes LAL · 2026-02-07	6/4/1	6/4/1	0.3
Dalton Knecht LAL · 2026-01-30	4/1/0	4/1/0	0.3

Top 10 Biggest Misses

Player	Pred	Actual	Err
Ousmane Dieng MIL · 2026-04-01	6/3/3	36/7/10	40.8
Oscar Tshiebwe UTA · 2026-04-12	4/5/1	29/17/3	38.7
Cody Williams UTA · 2026-03-15	7/3/1	34/7/7	37.7
Jalen Johnson ATL · 2026-02-24	25/11/9	5/3/0	37.5
Alperen Sengun HOU · 2026-01-03	20/12/6	0/1/0	37.2
Jamal Murray DEN · 2026-02-25	24/5/11	2/0/1	36.4
Luka Dončić LAL · 2026-03-19	30/8/9	60/7/3	36.3
Cooper Flagg DAL · 2026-01-14	31/8/5	6/1/1	36.2
Jahmai Mashack MEM · 2026-04-10	4/1/1	13/15/14	35.4
Donovan Clingan POR · 2026-03-23	19/16/3	0/3/0	34.7

Accuracy Over Time (5-game rolling average)