Portland Trail Blazers 101 @ 112 San Antonio Spurs

April 08, 2026 | Frost Bank Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

POR SAS Total
Predicted 106 119 224
Actual 101 112 213
Diff +5 +7 +11
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Harrison Barnes Pred: 10/3/1 | Actual: 9/2/2
Robert Williams III Pred: 6/7/1 | Actual: 4/7/1
Jordan McLaughlin Pred: 2/0/1 | Actual: 2/2/0
Blake Wesley Pred: 4/1/2 | Actual: 2/2/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Carter Bryant Pred: 2pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 14)
Julian Champagnie Pred: 14pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 12)

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 31:29 13 10 6 0 0 3 3 6-17 35.3 1-7 14.3 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Deni Avdija SF 37:32 29 6 6 0 0 6 3 13-21 61.9 1-3 33.3 2-4 50.0 7.0
Scoot Henderson PG 38:03 20 3 2 3 1 1 0 7-20 35.0 3-9 33.3 3-4 75.0 -7.0
Toumani Camara PF 39:57 18 4 6 3 1 2 2 7-12 58.3 4-8 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Donovan Clingan C 28:16 11 11 5 1 3 0 2 4-7 57.1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Sidy Cissoko 8:55 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jerami Grant DNP - Inactive
Yang Hansen DNP - Coach's Decision
Jayson Kent DNP - Inactive
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Inactive
Caleb Love 2:12 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Kris Murray 12:21 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 24:06 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0-5 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Blake Wesley 4:20 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Robert Williams III 12:47 4 7 1 0 0 2 0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -11.0
Chris Youngblood DNP - Coach's Decision

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Dylan Harper SG 32:38 13 6 4 2 2 4 2 6-14 42.9 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Devin Vassell SF 30:59 14 8 1 2 0 1 2 5-13 38.5 2-7 28.6 2-3 66.7 0.0
De'Aaron Fox PG 34:33 25 5 7 3 0 4 3 10-20 50.0 3-6 50.0 2-3 66.7 -3.0
Julian Champagnie PF 26:50 2 4 3 0 2 0 1 1-6 16.7 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Luke Kornet C 26:01 10 5 6 2 1 0 0 5-6 83.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Harrison Barnes 26:47 9 2 2 1 0 3 2 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 5-6 83.3 13.0
Bismack Biyombo DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant 24:42 17 5 4 1 0 1 3 6-9 66.7 5-6 83.3 0-0 0.0 6.0
Stephon Castle DNP - Inactive
Harrison Ingram DNP - Coach's Decision
Keldon Johnson 28:55 20 8 1 2 1 2 1 8-15 53.3 0-3 0.0 4-5 80.0 13.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Jordan McLaughlin 8:35 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 9.0
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk DNP - Coach's Decision
Mason Plumlee DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III DNP - Coach's Decision
Victor Wembanyama DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: POR @ SAS
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:18 AM
**Prediction:** POR 106 - SAS 119 (SAS by 13, total 224) **Confidence:** 95% **POR** 40-39 (#9) | Net: -0.5 | Off: 110.6 | Def: 111.1 | Rest: 1d rest **SAS** 60-19 (#2) | Net: 8.1 | Off: 116.5 | Def: 108.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.3 **Injuries:** POR: Jerami Grant (Out), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -8.0 pts) SAS: Stephon Castle (Day-To-Day), David Jones Garcia (Out), Emanuel Miller (Out), Victor Wembanyama (Day-To-Day) (impact: -2.1 pts) **Key Players:** POR: Deni Avdija 30.9p/9.5r/8.3a | Toumani Camara 19.3p/7.0r/1.7a | Jrue Holiday 16.1p/3.8r/5.6a SAS: Victor Wembanyama 24.0p/12.4r/2.8a | De'Aaron Fox 20.0p/4.2r/6.0a | Devin Vassell 16.1p/5.2r/2.4a **Value Bets:** SPREAD SAS -3.5 (strong, EV $0.533/dollar) MONEYLINE SAS -166 (strong, EV $0.524/dollar) MONEYLINE SAS -168 (strong, EV $0.517/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on