Indiana Pacers 108 @ 117 Cleveland Cavaliers

April 05, 2026 | Rocket Arena | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

IND CLE Total
Predicted 109 124 233
Actual 108 117 225
Diff +1 +7 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Larry Nance Jr. Pred: 4/3/1 | Actual: 6/3/1
Taelon Peter Pred: 6/2/1 | Actual: 8/1/1
Ethan Thompson Pred: 8/2/2 | Actual: 5/1/1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin Pred: 6/3/1 | Actual: 3/4/0
Kam Jones Pred: 5/2/4 | Actual: 2/0/5
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Max Strus Pred: 19pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 15)

Indiana Pacers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ethan Thompson SG 29:37 5 1 1 0 0 0 3 1-12 8.3 0-6 0.0 3-4 75.0 1.0
Quenton Jackson SF 28:53 15 5 4 2 0 3 1 5-14 35.7 1-4 25.0 4-5 80.0 3.0
Kobe Brown PG 39:48 11 7 5 1 0 1 1 3-10 30.0 3-7 42.9 2-2 100.0 -16.0
Micah Potter C 30:23 21 12 4 0 0 1 1 6-10 60.0 3-5 60.0 6-8 75.0 -8.0
Johnny Furphy DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Haliburton DNP - Inactive
Jay Huff 17:37 6 3 2 1 1 1 2 3-6 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Kam Jones 19:07 2 0 5 0 0 0 1 1-7 14.3 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
T.J. McConnell DNP - Inactive
Andrew Nembhard DNP - Inactive
Aaron Nesmith DNP - Inactive
Taelon Peter 18:23 8 1 1 0 0 0 2 3-6 50.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Ben Sheppard DNP - Coach's Decision
Pascal Siakam DNP - Inactive
Obi Toppin 23:28 21 8 4 1 0 1 2 4-10 40.0 3-7 42.9 10-10 100.0 0.0
Jarace Walker DNP - Coach's Decision
Ivica Zubac DNP - Inactive

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 32:51 38 6 6 1 0 3 3 16-27 59.3 2-7 28.6 4-5 80.0 8.0
Max Strus SF 30:56 4 7 5 0 0 0 3 1-10 10.0 1-9 11.1 1-2 50.0 -8.0
James Harden PG 34:17 28 4 7 3 1 2 3 8-17 47.1 5-11 45.5 7-8 87.5 12.0
Keon Ellis PF 33:19 13 5 0 1 0 0 2 5-9 55.6 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 8.0
Thomas Bryant C 26:14 14 10 2 0 1 0 2 6-9 66.7 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Jarrett Allen DNP - Inactive
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Coach's Decision
Sam Merrill DNP - Inactive
Evan Mobley DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr. 21:46 6 3 1 3 1 2 1 2-6 33.3 1-3 33.3 1-2 50.0 5.0
Craig Porter Jr. 22:34 5 4 1 0 2 0 1 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Tyrese Proctor 4:49 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Dennis Schröder 20:01 6 2 3 0 0 1 1 2-6 33.3 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 12.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 13:13 3 4 0 0 1 1 3 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: IND @ CLE
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** IND 108 - CLE 117 (Winner: CLE ✓) **Prediction:** IND 109 - CLE 124 Score error: 1/7 | Total: pred 233, actual 225 (-8) **Standout Players:** Max Strus (CLE): 4p actual vs 19.0p pred (+15.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: IND @ CLE
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** IND 109 - CLE 124 (CLE by 16, total 233) **Confidence:** 96% **IND** 16-57 (#15) | Net: -8.5 | Off: 108.1 | Def: 116.6 | Rest: 1d rest **CLE** 45-28 (#4) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 111.9 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 102.7 **Injuries:** IND: Johnny Furphy (Out), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), T.J. McConnell (Out), Andrew Nembhard (Out), Aaron Nesmith (Out), Ben Sheppard (Day-To-Day), Pascal Siakam (Out), Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day), Jarace Walker (Out), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Sam Merrill (Out), Emanuel Miller (Day-To-Day), Evan Mobley (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Out), Dean Wade (Out) (impact: -6.7 pts) **Key Players:** IND: Jay Huff 14.0p/5.7r/2.0a | Micah Potter 12.8p/5.1r/1.2a | Obi Toppin 12.3p/4.7r/2.4a CLE: Donovan Mitchell 32.3p/5.7r/6.9a | James Harden 27.2p/5.3r/10.8a | Max Strus 19.0p/6.4r/2.4a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (moderate, EV $0.228/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (moderate, EV $0.228/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred