New Orleans Pelicans 106 @ 118 Portland Trail Blazers

April 02, 2026 | Moda Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

NOP POR Total
Predicted 112 117 230
Actual 106 118 224
Diff +6 -1 +6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Herbert Jones Pred: 10/3/3 | Actual: 9/4/3
Yves Missi Pred: 6/7/1 | Actual: 6/7/0
Scoot Henderson Pred: 14/2/4 | Actual: 14/1/3
Deni Avdija Pred: 28/8/7 | Actual: 26/8/7
Robert Williams III Pred: 8/8/1 | Actual: 6/9/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Zion Williamson Pred: 28pts | Actual: 15pts (off by 12)

New Orleans Pelicans

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Trey Murphy III SG 36:23 19 8 2 1 0 1 2 7-17 41.2 1-6 16.7 4-4 100.0 -17.0
Saddiq Bey SF 34:43 15 6 1 1 0 1 2 6-14 42.9 3-5 60.0 0-2 0.0 -22.0
Dejounte Murray PG 28:02 9 8 5 2 0 5 1 4-10 40.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 -24.0
Zion Williamson PF 29:24 15 1 3 0 1 2 4 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 7-8 87.5 -11.0
Herbert Jones C 25:53 9 4 3 0 0 4 3 3-9 33.3 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 -9.0
Trey Alexander DNP - Coach's Decision
Hunter Dickinson DNP - Inactive
Jeremiah Fears 25:59 21 2 1 2 2 2 3 7-10 70.0 3-4 75.0 4-5 80.0 12.0
Jordan Hawkins DNP - Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković DNP - Inactive
Bryce McGowens DNP - Inactive
Yves Missi 19:41 6 7 0 0 1 1 0 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Micah Peavy 12:12 0 2 3 1 0 0 2 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 12.0
Jordan Poole DNP - Coach's Decision
Derik Queen 27:41 12 6 7 2 1 3 4 4-10 40.0 0-1 0.0 4-4 100.0 2.0

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 37:21 27 5 9 1 0 4 0 10-22 45.5 7-15 46.7 0-0 0.0 14.0
Deni Avdija SF 37:14 26 8 7 2 1 3 4 7-20 35.0 2-7 28.6 10-13 76.9 10.0
Scoot Henderson PG 20:28 14 1 3 1 0 0 2 6-12 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Toumani Camara PF 39:22 23 4 1 3 0 1 2 8-15 53.3 6-12 50.0 1-1 100.0 22.0
Donovan Clingan C 22:11 4 9 2 1 0 1 5 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Sidy Cissoko 9:19 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jerami Grant DNP - Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen DNP - Inactive
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love DNP - Inactive
Kris Murray 20:09 3 3 1 1 3 2 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 3.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Matisse Thybulle 30:51 13 5 2 2 0 1 1 4-9 44.4 3-8 37.5 2-2 100.0 21.0
Blake Wesley DNP - Coach's Decision
Robert Williams III 23:04 6 9 1 0 3 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: NOP @ POR
Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** NOP 106 - POR 118 (Winner: POR ✓) **Prediction:** NOP 112 - POR 117 Score error: 6/1 | Total: pred 230, actual 224 (-6) **Standout Players:** Zion Williamson (NOP): 15p actual vs 27.8p pred (+12.8) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE POR -250 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE POR -250 — WON
General Slate Analysis: NOP @ POR
Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM
**Prediction:** NOP 113 - POR 119 (POR by 6, total 231) **Confidence:** 86% **NOP** 25-49 (#11) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 111.6 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 3d rest **POR** 37-37 (#9) | Net: -1.1 | Off: 110.5 | Def: 111.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.5 **Injuries:** NOP: Hunter Dickinson (Day-To-Day), Bryce McGowens (Day-To-Day), Trey Murphy III (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.7 pts) POR: Jerami Grant (Out), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -8.2 pts) **Key Players:** NOP: Zion Williamson 25.1p/6.6r/2.7a | Saddiq Bey 18.7p/5.0r/3.2a | Trey Murphy III 17.4p/5.2r/3.1a POR: Deni Avdija 28.3p/7.8r/7.2a | Jrue Holiday 18.4p/3.6r/6.4a | Toumani Camara 16.5p/5.9r/2.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE POR -250 (moderate, EV $0.207/dollar) MONEYLINE POR -250 (moderate, EV $0.207/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred