Portland Trail Blazers 114 @ 104 Los Angeles Clippers

March 31, 2026 | Intuit Dome | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

POR LAC Total
Predicted 110 116 227
Actual 114 104 218
Diff -4 +12 +9
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Matisse Thybulle Pred: 6/2/1 | Actual: 5/2/1
Robert Williams III Pred: 5/8/1 | Actual: 6/7/1
TyTy Washington Jr. Pred: 2/0/2 | Actual: 0/0/1
Cam Christie Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Bennedict Mathurin Pred: 22pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 18)
Jrue Holiday Pred: 17pts | Actual: 30pts (off by 13)
Caleb Love Pred: 12pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 10)

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 31:49 30 6 2 2 0 3 2 10-21 47.6 7-15 46.7 3-3 100.0 6.0
Deni Avdija SF 34:07 28 11 8 0 0 2 2 8-15 53.3 1-4 25.0 11-12 91.7 8.0
Scoot Henderson PG 28:49 15 3 2 0 0 4 3 5-14 35.7 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Toumani Camara PF 32:35 17 7 0 2 1 1 3 7-16 43.8 3-9 33.3 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Donovan Clingan C 28:54 4 4 1 1 1 2 3 2-5 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Sidy Cissoko 8:30 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Jerami Grant DNP - Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen DNP - Coach's Decision
VĂ­t KrejÄŤĂ­ DNP - Inactive
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love 1:06 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Kris Murray 31:08 7 7 6 0 0 0 0 3-9 33.3 0-4 0.0 1-1 100.0 19.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Matisse Thybulle 23:55 5 2 1 3 1 1 2 2-5 40.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Blake Wesley 1:06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Robert Williams III 18:00 6 7 1 0 1 1 1 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 22.0

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 23:21 1 3 2 0 3 0 3 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 3.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 35:30 23 8 3 1 1 3 0 7-15 46.7 0-5 0.0 9-10 90.0 -6.0
Darius Garland PG 37:15 20 2 4 2 1 5 4 7-17 41.2 3-8 37.5 3-3 100.0 -7.0
John Collins PF 31:13 17 6 1 2 0 0 3 7-8 87.5 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Brook Lopez C 35:46 18 7 2 0 3 1 3 7-16 43.8 2-8 25.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Nicolas Batum 5:36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie 1:22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Kris Dunn 19:56 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -12.0
Isaiah Jackson DNP - Inactive
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 22:23 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 2-7 28.6 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -18.0
Jordan Miller 24:54 16 2 3 1 0 0 0 6-8 75.0 2-3 66.7 2-4 50.0 3.0
Kobe Sanders 1:22 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
TyTy Washington Jr. 1:22 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: POR @ LAC
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** POR 114 - LAC 104 (Winner: POR ✗) **Prediction:** POR 110 - LAC 116 Score error: 4/12 | Total: pred 227, actual 218 (-9) **Standout Players:** Jrue Holiday (POR): 30p actual vs 16.9p pred (-13.1) Bennedict Mathurin (LAC): 4p actual vs 22.2p pred (+18.2) Caleb Love (POR): 2p actual vs 12.3p pred (+10.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE LAC -225 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE LAC -225 — LOST ✗ SPREAD LAC -5.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD LAC -5.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: POR @ LAC
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** POR 107 - LAC 119 (LAC by 12, total 227) **Confidence:** 95% **POR** 37-37 (#9) | Net: -1.1 | Off: 110.5 | Def: 111.6 | Rest: 1d rest **LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.4 **Injuries:** POR: Jerami Grant (Out), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -8.2 pts) LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Isaiah Jackson (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out) (impact: -1.7 pts) **Key Players:** POR: Deni Avdija 24.5p/8.2r/7.5a | Jrue Holiday 18.5p/4.3r/6.6a | Toumani Camara 14.1p/4.9r/2.2a LAC: Kawhi Leonard 30.2p/7.9r/4.1a | Bennedict Mathurin 22.1p/5.6r/2.7a | Darius Garland 19.1p/2.2r/7.4a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE LAC -225 (strong, EV $0.368/dollar) MONEYLINE LAC -225 (strong, EV $0.368/dollar) SPREAD LAC -5.5 (moderate, EV $0.305/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred