Dallas Mavericks 100 @ 93 Portland Trail Blazers

March 27, 2026 | Moda Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

DAL POR Total
Predicted 113 121 234
Actual 100 93 193
Diff +13 +28 +41
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jerami Grant Pred: 20/4/2 | Actual: 19/4/0
AJ Johnson Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Marvin Bagley III Pred: 10pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 16)
Donovan Clingan Pred: 18pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 12)
P.J. Washington Pred: 16pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 11)

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 25:20 5 3 2 1 2 2 2 1-8 12.5 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Cooper Flagg SF 37:31 24 3 2 4 0 3 0 9-17 52.9 0-1 0.0 6-6 100.0 3.0
Naji Marshall PG 32:55 19 3 3 5 0 1 3 7-14 50.0 0-2 0.0 5-7 71.4 7.0
P.J. Washington PF 27:19 5 5 0 0 0 1 1 2-6 33.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Dwight Powell C 20:45 4 5 3 1 0 3 3 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 1.0
Marvin Bagley III 27:15 26 9 3 1 1 1 5 11-14 78.6 3-5 60.0 1-4 25.0 6.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Daniel Gafford DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson 9:59 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Khris Middleton DNP - Coach's Decision
Ryan Nembhard 11:58 0 3 2 0 0 2 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Klay Thompson 18:03 7 2 3 0 1 1 1 2-10 20.0 2-8 25.0 1-1 100.0 12.0
Brandon Williams 20:02 10 1 5 0 1 2 5 2-6 33.3 0-1 0.0 6-8 75.0 7.0

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 35:04 23 4 3 1 0 4 0 8-19 42.1 3-9 33.3 4-4 100.0 5.0
Jerami Grant SF 29:02 19 4 0 1 2 1 2 4-8 50.0 2-4 50.0 9-12 75.0 -4.0
Deni Avdija PG 37:47 20 9 6 1 2 5 2 8-15 53.3 0-3 0.0 4-9 44.4 -8.0
Toumani Camara PF 38:39 8 5 3 1 1 1 5 3-9 33.3 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Donovan Clingan C 31:32 6 17 0 0 1 5 4 2-9 22.2 0-1 0.0 2-4 50.0 -4.0
Sidy Cissoko 7:35 0 2 0 0 0 1 3 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Yang Hansen DNP - Inactive
Scoot Henderson 22:03 9 2 3 3 0 3 2 3-11 27.3 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -12.0
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Kris Murray 11:52 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 15:35 4 0 1 1 0 2 0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 0.0
Blake Wesley DNP - Coach's Decision
Robert Williams III 10:50 4 5 0 0 1 0 2 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DAL @ POR
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** DAL 100 - POR 93 (Winner: DAL ✗) **Prediction:** DAL 113 - POR 121 Score error: 13/28 | Total: pred 234, actual 193 (-41) **Standout Players:** Marvin Bagley III (DAL): 26p actual vs 9.6p pred (-16.4) P.J. Washington (DAL): 5p actual vs 16.4p pred (+11.4) Donovan Clingan (POR): 6p actual vs 18.0p pred (+12.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 241.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 240.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DAL 10.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD DAL 10.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: DAL @ POR
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** DAL 113 - POR 121 (POR by 8, total 234) **Confidence:** 87% **DAL** 23-50 (#13) | Net: -5.0 | Off: 108.5 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: 1d rest **POR** 37-37 (#9) | Net: -1.1 | Off: 110.5 | Def: 111.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 104.2 **Injuries:** DAL: Daniel Gafford (Out), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out), Brandon Williams (Available) (impact: -1.4 pts) POR: Jerami Grant (Available), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out), Robert Williams III (Available) (impact: -6.7 pts) **Key Players:** DAL: Cooper Flagg 19.8p/7.4r/6.1a | Naji Marshall 16.4p/5.9r/3.9a | P.J. Washington 16.4p/7.8r/1.4a POR: Deni Avdija 29.1p/8.4r/8.3a | Jerami Grant 19.7p/3.7r/1.8a | Donovan Clingan 18.0p/14.9r/2.2a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 241.5 (moderate, EV $0.312/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 240.5 (moderate, EV $0.293/dollar) SPREAD DAL 10.5 (slight, EV $0.098/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred