Miami Heat 128 @ 149 Cleveland Cavaliers

March 27, 2026 | Rocket Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

MIA CLE Total
Predicted 118 122 240
Actual 128 149 277
Diff -10 -27 -37
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Pelle Larsson Pred: 12/3/3 | Actual: 10/3/5
Keon Ellis Pred: 9/2/1 | Actual: 10/0/2
Simone Fontecchio Pred: 10/3/1 | Actual: 12/2/0
Keshad Johnson Pred: 4/2/0 | Actual: 1/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Donovan Mitchell Pred: 34pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 27)
Max Strus Pred: 9pts | Actual: 29pts (off by 20)
James Harden Pred: 28pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 10)

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tyler Herro SG 31:22 11 3 5 0 0 1 3 4-13 30.8 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 -23.0
Norman Powell SF 25:27 15 3 2 0 1 0 3 5-10 50.0 2-5 40.0 3-3 100.0 -12.0
Davion Mitchell PG 24:02 2 4 4 0 0 4 2 1-6 16.7 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Andrew Wiggins PF 19:58 12 1 0 0 1 0 2 3-5 60.0 3-3 100.0 3-4 75.0 -15.0
Bam Adebayo C 30:41 14 16 3 1 1 2 0 3-14 21.4 1-8 12.5 7-8 87.5 -18.0
Simone Fontecchio 9:54 12 2 0 1 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 -6.0
Myron Gardner 6:48 3 0 1 1 0 0 3 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 1.0
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Inactive
Kasparas Jakučionis 19:28 14 3 1 0 0 0 3 3-6 50.0 2-5 40.0 6-6 100.0 7.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 21:14 20 2 3 0 1 3 4 9-13 69.2 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 -7.0
Keshad Johnson 4:39 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 6.0
Nikola Jović DNP - Coach's Decision
Pelle Larsson 25:44 10 3 5 1 0 3 1 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 6-6 100.0 -10.0
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Kel'el Ware 20:43 14 8 1 1 0 0 1 5-10 50.0 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 -6.0
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 30:38 6 4 6 4 0 2 2 1-10 10.0 0-3 0.0 4-4 100.0 14.0
Sam Merrill SF 26:44 10 3 4 0 0 0 2 3-9 33.3 2-7 28.6 2-2 100.0 25.0
James Harden PG 29:30 17 5 14 2 0 1 3 4-11 36.4 2-6 33.3 7-7 100.0 25.0
Evan Mobley PF 29:14 23 10 3 1 0 0 2 10-15 66.7 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 15.0
Jarrett Allen C 18:15 18 10 0 0 1 0 1 8-10 80.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 18.0
Thomas Bryant 14:01 11 4 0 0 0 2 2 5-10 50.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Keon Ellis 24:30 10 0 2 1 0 0 5 4-5 80.0 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 9.0
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr. 4:11 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 1-2 50.0 -7.0
Craig Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Proctor 5:41 6 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 4-4 100.0 -3.0
Dennis Schröder 19:55 8 0 5 1 0 0 1 3-7 42.9 0-1 0.0 2-3 66.7 3.0
Max Strus 22:49 29 8 1 0 0 1 2 10-14 71.4 8-11 72.7 1-2 50.0 22.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 5:41 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MIA @ CLE
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** MIA 128 - CLE 149 (Winner: CLE ✓) **Prediction:** MIA 118 - CLE 122 Score error: 10/27 | Total: pred 240, actual 277 (+37) **Standout Players:** James Harden (CLE): 17p actual vs 27.7p pred (+10.7) Donovan Mitchell (CLE): 6p actual vs 33.8p pred (+27.8) Max Strus (CLE): 29p actual vs 8.8p pred (-20.2) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -210 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -218 — WON
General Slate Analysis: MIA @ CLE
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** MIA 118 - CLE 122 (CLE by 4, total 240) **Confidence:** 90% **MIA** 39-34 (#10) | Net: 2.7 | Off: 113.0 | Def: 110.3 | Rest: 1d rest **CLE** 45-28 (#4) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 111.9 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 104.2 **Injuries:** MIA: Terry Rozier (Out), Jahmir Young (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.3 pts) CLE: Jarrett Allen (Day-To-Day), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Tyrese Proctor (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Out) (impact: -3.6 pts) **Key Players:** MIA: Norman Powell 22.0p/2.9r/2.6a | Tyler Herro 20.0p/3.8r/4.1a | Bam Adebayo 19.5p/10.8r/3.3a CLE: Donovan Mitchell 33.8p/5.8r/6.5a | James Harden 27.7p/6.0r/8.8a | Evan Mobley 19.2p/11.0r/3.9a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE CLE -210 (strong, EV $0.321/dollar) MONEYLINE CLE -218 (strong, EV $0.306/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred