Miami Heat 120 @ 103 Cleveland Cavaliers

March 25, 2026 | Rocket Arena | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

MIA CLE Total
Predicted 120 127 247
Actual 120 103 223
Diff 0 +24 +24
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Thomas Bryant Pred: 5/4/0 | Actual: 4/5/0
Kasparas Jakučionis Pred: 4/2/2 | Actual: 2/1/2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 6/4/0
Norman Powell Pred: 21/3/3 | Actual: 19/4/2
Andrew Wiggins Pred: 15/5/3 | Actual: 12/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Evan Mobley Pred: 20pts | Actual: 8pts (off by 12)
Keon Ellis Pred: 5pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 11)

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tyler Herro SG 30:14 18 2 4 3 0 2 1 6-11 54.5 4-8 50.0 2-2 100.0 21.0
Norman Powell SF 33:59 19 4 2 2 0 1 2 7-12 58.3 3-7 42.9 2-2 100.0 -6.0
Davion Mitchell PG 31:53 11 2 3 1 1 2 2 4-6 66.7 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
Andrew Wiggins PF 23:36 12 3 2 2 0 0 5 5-9 55.6 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Bam Adebayo C 33:09 17 10 7 2 0 1 1 6-19 31.6 1-9 11.1 4-5 80.0 -1.0
Simone Fontecchio DNP - Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner DNP - Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Inactive
Kasparas Jakučionis 13:38 2 1 2 0 0 0 2 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 12.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 19:22 14 2 5 0 0 1 1 6-12 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 6.0
Keshad Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović DNP - Coach's Decision
Pelle Larsson 34:04 14 5 2 1 1 5 1 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 7-7 100.0 14.0
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Kel'el Ware 20:02 13 11 4 0 1 0 2 5-5 100.0 3-3 100.0 0-1 0.0 32.0
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 33:12 28 6 4 0 0 3 6 12-22 54.5 4-9 44.4 0-0 0.0 -21.0
Sam Merrill SF 28:42 18 2 4 0 0 3 1 6-13 46.2 4-10 40.0 2-2 100.0 -22.0
James Harden PG 42:30 18 9 7 0 1 5 1 4-10 40.0 3-9 33.3 7-7 100.0 -6.0
Keon Ellis PF 36:52 17 2 1 2 0 0 2 5-12 41.7 1-7 14.3 6-6 100.0 -13.0
Evan Mobley C 30:36 8 5 4 0 0 2 2 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 2-5 40.0 -5.0
Jarrett Allen DNP - Inactive
Thomas Bryant 16:03 4 5 0 0 0 1 2 2-7 28.6 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Coach's Decision
Larry Nance Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Proctor 6:25 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Dennis Schröder 27:43 4 6 6 0 0 0 2 1-5 20.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Max Strus DNP - Inactive
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 17:54 6 4 0 0 0 0 4 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: MIA @ CLE
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** MIA 116 - CLE 125 (CLE by 10, total 241) **Confidence:** 94% **MIA** 28-27 (#8) | Net: 2.1 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest **CLE** 33-21 (#4) | Net: 3.5 | Off: 115.0 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 105.2 **Injuries:** MIA: Terry Rozier (Out), Jahmir Young (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.3 pts) CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Larry Nance Jr. (Day-To-Day), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Day-To-Day) (impact: -3.6 pts) **Key Players:** MIA: Norman Powell 21.6p/2.6r/2.8a | Bam Adebayo 20.6p/10.6r/2.3a | Tyler Herro 20.2p/4.9r/4.1a CLE: Donovan Mitchell 29.8p/4.9r/6.8a | James Harden 24.6p/4.6r/7.8a | Evan Mobley 20.2p/11.4r/3.6a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE CLE -158 (strong, EV $0.532/dollar) MONEYLINE CLE -162 (strong, EV $0.517/dollar) SPREAD CLE -3.5 (moderate, EV $0.357/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred