Brooklyn Nets 99 @ 134 Portland Trail Blazers

March 23, 2026 | Moda Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

BKN POR Total
Predicted 103 113 216
Actual 99 134 233
Diff +4 -21 -17
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Sidy Cissoko Pred: 4/2/2 | Actual: 3/1/1
Matisse Thybulle Pred: 6/2/1 | Actual: 7/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Donovan Clingan Pred: 19pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 19)
Deni Avdija Pred: 25pts | Actual: 8pts (off by 17)
Scoot Henderson Pred: 16pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 16)

Brooklyn Nets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jalen Wilson SG 6:21 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Ziaire Williams SF 7:11 4 1 0 0 0 1 2 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Nolan Traore PG 7:11 0 3 4 1 1 1 0 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Josh Minott PF 7:11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Nic Claxton C 6:21 8 1 0 0 1 0 1 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 0.0
Ochai Agbaji DNP - Coach's Decision
Noah Clowney DNP - Inactive
Egor DĂ«min DNP - Inactive
Tyson Etienne 4:49 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Chaney Johnson 5:39 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
E.J. Liddell 4:49 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Terance Mann DNP - Inactive
Michael Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Drake Powell DNP - Inactive
Ben Saraf 5:39 6 1 1 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Day'Ron Sharpe DNP - Inactive
Danny Wolf DNP - Coach's Decision

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 6:19 4 0 2 0 0 4 0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Sidy Cissoko SF 9:34 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Deni Avdija PG 10:35 8 4 1 1 0 0 1 4-8 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 10.0
Toumani Camara PF 8:05 7 1 1 0 0 0 1 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 1-2 50.0 -5.0
Donovan Clingan C 7:11 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Jerami Grant DNP - Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen DNP - Coach's Decision
Scoot Henderson 7:10 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
VĂ­t KrejÄŤĂ­ DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Inactive
Caleb Love DNP - Inactive
Kris Murray 7:10 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 8.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 3:55 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 2-4 50.0 10.0
Blake Wesley DNP - Coach's Decision
Robert Williams III DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: BKN @ POR
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** BKN 93 - POR 112 (POR by 19, total 206) **Confidence:** 96% **BKN** 15-37 (#13) | Net: -7.3 | Off: 107.7 | Def: 115.0 | Rest: B2B **POR** 26-28 (#9) | Net: -1.8 | Off: 110.6 | Def: 112.4 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** BKN: Nic Claxton (Day-To-Day), Noah Clowney (Out), Egor Dëmin (Out), Michael Porter Jr. (Out), Day'Ron Sharpe (Out), Danny Wolf (Day-To-Day) (impact: -9.2 pts) POR: Jerami Grant (Day-To-Day), Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -6.9 pts) **Key Players:** BKN: Ben Saraf 11.5p/1.6r/4.6a | Nic Claxton 11.3p/8.9r/2.2a | Ziaire Williams 10.7p/2.3r/1.0a POR: Deni Avdija 21.9p/7.2r/6.4a | Donovan Clingan 18.0p/14.0r/2.3a | Scoot Henderson 14.5p/2.1r/3.9a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 219.5 (strong, EV $0.476/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 219.5 (strong, EV $0.458/dollar) SPREAD POR -14.5 (moderate, EV $0.223/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred