Portland Trail Blazers 112 @ 128 Denver Nuggets

March 22, 2026 | Ball Arena | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

POR DEN Total
Predicted 113 123 236
Actual 112 128 240
Diff +1 -5 -4
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Toumani Camara Pred: 15/4/3 | Actual: 16/5/2
Scoot Henderson Pred: 13/2/4 | Actual: 13/3/2
Sidy Cissoko Pred: 5/2/2 | Actual: 7/2/1
Matisse Thybulle Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 3/3/1
Christian Braun Pred: 14/5/4 | Actual: 15/6/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Robert Williams III Pred: 6pts | Actual: 16pts (off by 10)
Nikola Jokić Pred: 32pts | Actual: 22pts (off by 10)

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jrue Holiday SG 28:56 9 3 3 1 0 1 1 3-12 25.0 2-10 20.0 1-1 100.0 -5.0
Toumani Camara SF 30:14 16 5 2 0 0 1 2 5-8 62.5 4-6 66.7 2-2 100.0 -20.0
Deni Avdija PG 32:55 23 6 14 0 0 3 3 7-17 41.2 2-7 28.6 7-8 87.5 -24.0
Sidy Cissoko PF 19:16 7 2 1 0 0 0 3 3-8 37.5 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 -8.0
Donovan Clingan C 25:21 18 13 1 0 0 2 1 7-13 53.8 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Jerami Grant DNP - Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen DNP - Inactive
Scoot Henderson 27:08 13 3 2 0 0 1 5 5-14 35.7 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -8.0
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love DNP - Inactive
Kris Murray 17:46 2 2 4 1 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 25:11 3 3 1 3 0 1 1 1-6 16.7 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Blake Wesley 10:33 2 2 2 0 0 1 0 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Robert Williams III 18:54 16 5 1 0 0 0 0 8-10 80.0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 -8.0

Denver Nuggets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Christian Braun SG 29:02 15 6 2 0 0 1 2 5-7 71.4 1-3 33.3 4-4 100.0 12.0
Cameron Johnson SF 27:42 19 2 3 2 0 0 1 7-10 70.0 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 19.0
Jamal Murray PG 30:45 22 2 7 1 0 2 4 9-18 50.0 4-9 44.4 0-0 0.0 12.0
Aaron Gordon PF 28:27 12 3 4 0 0 0 2 4-7 57.1 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 15.0
Nikola Jokić C 35:06 22 14 14 2 1 5 3 10-18 55.6 2-8 25.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Bruce Brown 25:52 13 3 3 0 1 0 1 5-8 62.5 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21:59 6 4 1 0 0 0 1 1-5 20.0 1-5 20.0 3-3 100.0 2.0
DaRon Holmes II 1:57 0 1 0 0 0 3 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Spencer Jones 11:23 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Tyus Jones 1:57 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Curtis Jones DNP - Inactive
Zeke Nnaji 1:57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jalen Pickett 1:57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Julian Strawther 1:57 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jonas Valančiūnas DNP - Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson 19:56 14 6 3 0 0 0 3 6-13 46.2 1-5 20.0 1-2 50.0 2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: POR @ DEN
Mar 22, 2026 at 07:34 PM
**Grade: S** — Nailed it. **Result:** POR 112 - DEN 128 (Winner: DEN ✓) **Prediction:** POR 113 - DEN 123 Score error: 1/5 | Total: pred 236, actual 240 (+4) **Standout Players:** Nikola Jokić (DEN): 22p actual vs 32.0p pred (+10.0) Robert Williams III (POR): 16p actual vs 5.7p pred (-10.3)
General Slate Analysis: POR @ DEN
Mar 21, 2026 at 12:32 PM
**Prediction:** POR 112 - DEN 122 (DEN by 11, total 234) **Confidence:** 94% **POR** 26-28 (#9) | Net: -1.8 | Off: 110.6 | Def: 112.4 | Rest: 1d rest **DEN** 34-20 (#3) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 119.0 | Def: 115.1 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.3 **Injuries:** POR: Vít Krejčí (Out), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -6.7 pts) DEN: Peyton Watson (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** POR: Deni Avdija 28.7p/8.3r/8.2a | Jerami Grant 19.4p/4.4r/1.8a | Jrue Holiday 17.4p/4.1r/8.4a DEN: Nikola Jokić 32.3p/15.5r/10.7a | Jamal Murray 26.0p/5.3r/7.2a | Tim Hardaway Jr. 15.5p/2.4r/2.1a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred