Portland Trail Blazers 108 @ 104 Minnesota Timberwolves

March 20, 2026 | Target Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

POR MIN Total
Predicted 111 122 233
Actual 108 104 212
Diff +3 +18 +21
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Matisse Thybulle Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 5/3/0
Jaden McDaniels Pred: 18/5/3 | Actual: 16/6/3

Portland Trail Blazers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Deni Avdija SG 36:10 25 8 5 0 0 4 3 7-18 38.9 2-5 40.0 9-11 81.8 -1.0
Toumani Camara SF 34:00 6 3 0 1 0 2 3 2-7 28.6 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Jrue Holiday PG 31:54 12 2 12 0 0 0 2 5-17 29.4 1-6 16.7 1-1 100.0 14.0
Jerami Grant PF 31:53 26 5 1 3 1 4 3 10-16 62.5 4-9 44.4 2-2 100.0 9.0
Donovan Clingan C 31:08 21 12 4 1 3 1 4 9-13 69.2 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Sidy Cissoko 1:39 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Yang Hansen DNP - Inactive
Scoot Henderson 24:20 11 3 2 3 0 3 3 4-10 40.0 0-3 0.0 3-4 75.0 -2.0
Vít Krejčí DNP - Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Love DNP - Inactive
Kris Murray 15:45 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Shaedon Sharpe DNP - Coach's Decision
Matisse Thybulle 16:16 5 3 0 0 1 0 2 1-5 20.0 1-5 20.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Blake Wesley DNP - Coach's Decision
Robert Williams III 16:52 2 12 0 0 0 3 1 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ayo Dosunmu SG 38:21 17 10 8 0 0 2 4 6-15 40.0 3-6 50.0 2-2 100.0 11.0
Jaden McDaniels SF 40:02 16 6 3 5 1 1 3 6-11 54.5 0-1 0.0 4-6 66.7 -11.0
Donte DiVincenzo PG 35:08 13 4 2 1 2 4 4 5-16 31.2 3-12 25.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Julius Randle PF 36:44 19 5 4 1 0 4 2 6-16 37.5 0-1 0.0 7-9 77.8 0.0
Rudy Gobert C 38:24 18 15 1 2 1 0 0 7-14 50.0 0-0 0.0 4-6 66.7 5.0
Kyle Anderson 18:02 4 2 2 0 1 0 2 1-6 16.7 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 7.0
Joan Beringer DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Clark DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Inactive
Bones Hyland 22:11 17 0 0 2 0 2 3 5-11 45.5 3-7 42.9 4-4 100.0 -5.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Julian Phillips DNP - Coach's Decision
Naz Reid DNP - Inactive
Terrence Shannon Jr. 11:07 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: POR @ MIN
Mar 21, 2026 at 08:56 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** POR 108 - MIN 104 (Winner: POR ✗) **Prediction:** POR 111 - MIN 122 Score error: 3/18 | Total: pred 233, actual 212 (-21) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE MIN -130 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE MIN -130 — LOST ✗ SPREAD MIN -1.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD MIN -1.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: POR @ MIN
Mar 20, 2026 at 04:32 PM
**Prediction:** POR 111 - MIN 122 (MIN by 11, total 233) **Confidence:** 94% **POR** 26-28 (#9) | Net: -1.8 | Off: 110.6 | Def: 112.4 | Rest: 1d rest **MIN** 33-22 (#6) | Net: 4.4 | Off: 115.4 | Def: 111.0 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.8 **Injuries:** POR: Vít Krejčí (Day-To-Day), Damian Lillard (Out), Shaedon Sharpe (Out) (impact: -6.3 pts) MIN: Anthony Edwards (Out), Naz Reid (Day-To-Day) (impact: -6.5 pts) **Key Players:** POR: Deni Avdija 21.5p/7.0r/5.8a | Jerami Grant 19.1p/4.0r/2.1a | Jrue Holiday 16.9p/4.7r/6.6a MIN: Julius Randle 25.0p/7.7r/4.7a | Jaden McDaniels 17.7p/4.6r/3.2a | Ayo Dosunmu 16.9p/3.9r/3.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE MIN -130 (strong, EV $0.667/dollar) MONEYLINE MIN -130 (strong, EV $0.667/dollar) SPREAD MIN -1.5 (strong, EV $0.474/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred