MEM @ MIL - NBA Local

Grade: C Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

	MEM	MIL	Total
Predicted	108	112	219
Actual	115	131	246
Diff	-7	-19	-27

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Alex Antetokounmpo Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 2/0/1

Thanasis Antetokounmpo Pred: 1/2/1 | Actual: 2/0/0

Taylor Hendricks Pred: 9/6/1 | Actual: 11/4/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Kyle Kuzma Pred: 17pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 13)

Memphis Grizzlies

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Rayan Rupert	SF	39:01	33	10	10	4	1	4	3	9-19	47.4	2-6	33.3	13-16	81.2	-8.0
Walter Clayton Jr.	PG	25:26	20	3	4	0	0	3	0	6-11	54.5	4-6	66.7	4-4	100.0	-15.0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	PF	14:18	13	3	2	0	0	1	2	5-10	50.0	1-5	20.0	2-3	66.7	-7.0
Taylor Hendricks	C	12:29	11	4	0	4	0	0	2	3-4	75.0	3-4	75.0	2-2	100.0	-4.0
Santi Aldama	DNP - Inactive
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke	DNP - Inactive
Cedric Coward	DNP - Coach's Decision
Zach Edey	DNP - Inactive
GG Jackson	DNP - Coach's Decision
Ty Jerome	DNP - Inactive
Jahmai Mashack	DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant	DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Javon Small	DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Wells	DNP - Inactive

Milwaukee Bucks

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
AJ Green	SG	26:32	6	1	1	0	1	4	2	2-7	28.6	2-7	28.6	0-0	0.0	0.0
Ousmane Dieng	SF	31:18	17	9	6	0	0	2	0	6-15	40.0	1-4	25.0	4-7	57.1	8.0
Ryan Rollins	PG	32:26	24	4	3	1	0	2	1	10-16	62.5	4-7	57.1	0-0	0.0	0.0
Kyle Kuzma	PF	22:21	4	4	6	1	2	4	2	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-4.0
Myles Turner	C	21:52	19	11	0	2	2	0	3	6-13	46.2	1-4	25.0	6-7	85.7	-3.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo	DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo		0:57	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-2.0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo		1:53	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-2	0.0	0.0
Gary Harris	DNP - Coach's Decision
Andre Jackson Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Pete Nance		23:20	5	4	4	0	0	1	3	2-4	50.0	0-1	0.0	1-2	50.0	23.0
Kevin Porter Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis	DNP - Inactive
Taurean Prince		23:46	19	3	3	1	0	3	2	7-8	87.5	5-5	100.0	0-0	0.0	20.0
Jericho Sims		26:08	12	4	3	0	0	2	5	6-7	85.7	0-0	0.0	0-2	0.0	19.0
Gary Trent Jr.	DNP - Inactive

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General Post-Game Review: MEM @ MIL

Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM

**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least.
**Result:** MEM 115 - MIL 131 (Winner: MIL ✓)
**Prediction:** MEM 108 - MIL 112
Score error: 7/19 | Total: pred 219, actual 246 (+27)

**Standout Players:**
  Kyle Kuzma (MIL): 4p actual vs 17.4p pred (+13.4)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — LOST
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — LOST
  ✓ MONEYLINE MIL -230 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE MIL -245 — WON
  ✗ SPREAD MEM 6.5 — LOST

General Slate Analysis: MEM @ MIL

Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM

**Prediction:** MEM 108 - MIL 112 (MIL by 4, total 219)
**Confidence:** 85%

**MEM** 24-48 (#12) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 114.0 | Rest: 1d rest
**MIL** 29-43 (#11) | Net: -6.0 | Off: 110.4 | Def: 116.4 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 102.0

**Injuries:**
  MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Walter Clayton Jr. (Day-To-Day), Cedric Coward (Day-To-Day), Zach Edey (Out), GG Jackson (Day-To-Day), Ty Jerome (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Javon Small (Out), Cam Spencer (Out), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -9.6 pts)
  MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out), Bobby Portis (Out), Ryan Rollins (Day-To-Day), Gary Trent Jr. (Out) (impact: -9.2 pts)

**Key Players:**
  MEM: Cedric Coward 18.4p/5.3r/2.9a | Olivier-Maxence Prosper 17.7p/5.5r/1.4a | GG Jackson 15.8p/5.5r/1.8a
  MIL: Ryan Rollins 21.4p/4.7r/6.6a | Kyle Kuzma 17.4p/5.7r/2.8a | AJ Green 14.8p/3.6r/2.8a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 227.5 (strong, EV $0.385/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 227.5 (strong, EV $0.349/dollar)
  MONEYLINE MIL -230 (strong, EV $0.215/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Memphis Grizzlies 115 @ 131 Milwaukee Bucks