Washington Wizards 136 @ 152 Miami Heat

April 04, 2026 | Kaseya Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

WAS MIA Total
Predicted 112 131 243
Actual 136 152 288
Diff -24 -21 -45
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Davion Mitchell Pred: 10/3/6 | Actual: 12/4/6
Anthony Gill Pred: 9/4/2 | Actual: 6/5/3
Bub Carrington Pred: 14/3/6 | Actual: 11/2/5
Dru Smith Pred: 4/2/3 | Actual: 6/0/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Pred: 13pts | Actual: 32pts (off by 18)
Will Riley Pred: 17pts | Actual: 31pts (off by 13)
Kel'el Ware Pred: 12pts | Actual: 24pts (off by 12)

Washington Wizards

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tre Johnson SG 25:13 11 3 4 0 0 2 4 5-13 38.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Bilal Coulibaly SF 25:05 12 3 2 2 3 0 1 5-13 38.5 0-2 0.0 2-4 50.0 -20.0
Bub Carrington PG 26:55 11 2 5 2 0 2 2 4-13 30.8 3-8 37.5 0-1 0.0 -25.0
Anthony Gill PF 21:55 6 5 3 0 0 0 3 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -23.0
Will Riley C 36:54 31 5 0 5 0 0 1 12-17 70.6 2-4 50.0 5-6 83.3 -3.0
Justin Champagnie 20:32 12 10 2 1 0 0 2 4-9 44.4 1-2 50.0 3-3 100.0 -12.0
Sharife Cooper 25:01 20 2 7 0 0 3 2 6-10 60.0 3-5 60.0 5-6 83.3 6.0
Anthony Davis DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George DNP - Inactive
Jaden Hardy 24:44 19 2 2 1 1 2 3 7-15 46.7 5-10 50.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
D'Angelo Russell DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr DNP - Inactive
Tristan Vukcevic DNP - Coach's Decision
Jamir Watkins 18:50 14 3 1 1 1 0 6 5-8 62.5 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 13.0
Cam Whitmore DNP - Inactive
Trae Young DNP - Inactive

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Simone Fontecchio SG 18:59 8 1 4 1 0 1 3 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 12.0
Andrew Wiggins SF 26:14 21 2 3 1 1 1 3 7-11 63.6 4-5 80.0 3-4 75.0 24.0
Davion Mitchell PG 25:33 12 4 6 0 0 1 1 5-9 55.6 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Pelle Larsson PF 23:45 16 7 4 0 1 3 1 6-10 60.0 0-2 0.0 4-6 66.7 27.0
Bam Adebayo C 24:11 14 9 7 1 0 2 1 3-6 50.0 2-4 50.0 6-7 85.7 25.0
Myron Gardner DNP - Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro DNP - Coach's Decision
Kasparas Jakučionis 27:48 14 3 9 0 2 3 3 4-9 44.4 2-5 40.0 4-6 66.7 -2.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32:02 32 3 4 1 0 2 0 12-18 66.7 1-2 50.0 7-7 100.0 1.0
Keshad Johnson 0:36 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Nikola Jović 12:56 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 2-6 33.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Norman Powell DNP - Inactive
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith 12:05 6 0 1 2 0 0 0 2-5 40.0 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 -15.0
Kel'el Ware 35:49 24 19 2 0 7 1 4 10-15 66.7 3-6 50.0 1-2 50.0 7.0
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: WAS @ MIA
Apr 04, 2026 at 10:41 AM
**Prediction:** WAS 112 - MIA 131 (MIA by 19, total 243) **Confidence:** 96% **WAS** 17-55 (#13) | Net: -10.7 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 119.0 | Rest: 2d rest **MIA** 39-34 (#10) | Net: 2.7 | Off: 113.0 | Def: 110.3 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 105.0 **Injuries:** WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), D'Angelo Russell (Day-To-Day), Alex Sarr (Out), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Day-To-Day) (impact: -8.8 pts) MIA: Norman Powell (Day-To-Day), Terry Rozier (Out) (impact: -1.7 pts) **Key Players:** WAS: Trae Young 17.5p/2.3r/6.4a | Will Riley 17.2p/4.0r/2.5a | Bilal Coulibaly 14.5p/5.2r/3.0a MIA: Bam Adebayo 25.9p/12.1r/3.4a | Tyler Herro 18.3p/2.9r/3.6a | Norman Powell 15.1p/2.4r/1.7a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred