CLE @ GSW - NBA Local

Grade: S Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

	CLE	GSW	Total
Predicted	120	112	232
Actual	118	111	229
Diff	+2	+1	+3

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Dennis Schröder Pred: 12/3/5 | Actual: 12/2/6

LJ Cryer Pred: 10/1/2 | Actual: 12/1/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Sam Merrill Pred: 15pts | Actual: 3pts (off by 12)

Gui Santos Pred: 13pts | Actual: 25pts (off by 12)

Max Strus Pred: 14pts | Actual: 24pts (off by 10)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Donovan Mitchell	SG	34:23	25	6	3	2	1	5	2	7-14	50.0	4-7	57.1	7-7	100.0	1.0
Max Strus	SF	27:53	24	5	2	0	0	2	3	9-14	64.3	6-10	60.0	0-0	0.0	17.0
James Harden	PG	36:44	19	2	5	0	0	4	1	7-11	63.6	3-6	50.0	2-2	100.0	1.0
Evan Mobley	PF	32:20	12	10	5	1	0	0	0	6-11	54.5	0-2	0.0	0-2	0.0	3.0
Jarrett Allen	C	23:51	16	13	0	1	0	0	0	5-10	50.0	0-0	0.0	6-12	50.0	12.0
Thomas Bryant		14:08	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50.0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	3.0
Keon Ellis		22:09	4	3	2	1	0	0	2	2-7	28.6	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Tristan Enaruna	DNP - Inactive
Sam Merrill		28:13	3	2	5	1	0	2	1	1-6	16.7	1-6	16.7	0-0	0.0	12.0
Larry Nance Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Tyrese Proctor	DNP - Coach's Decision
Dennis Schröder		20:17	12	2	6	1	0	2	3	4-7	57.1	1-2	50.0	3-3	100.0	-8.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylon Tyson	DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade	DNP - Inactive

Golden State Warriors

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
De'Anthony Melton	SG	25:49	5	6	3	3	0	2	2	2-12	16.7	1-5	20.0	0-0	0.0	-15.0
Gui Santos	SF	31:10	25	4	4	2	0	3	5	9-14	64.3	2-6	33.3	5-6	83.3	5.0
Brandin Podziemski	PG	35:12	25	4	4	2	0	1	2	9-15	60.0	2-5	40.0	5-6	83.3	-11.0
Draymond Green	PF	35:11	8	9	9	1	3	2	4	3-11	27.3	2-8	25.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Kristaps Porziņģis	C	27:56	16	7	1	0	1	2	5	6-13	46.2	0-5	0.0	4-4	100.0	-16.0
Jimmy Butler III	DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer		24:44	12	1	0	0	0	0	1	3-9	33.3	3-7	42.9	3-4	75.0	-1.0
Stephen Curry	DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry	DNP - Coach's Decision
Al Horford	DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons	DNP - Coach's Decision
Moses Moody	DNP - Inactive
Gary Payton II		27:28	8	12	2	2	1	1	0	4-9	44.4	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	8.0
Quinten Post	DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Richard		16:50	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	0-3	0.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Pat Spencer		15:37	12	1	2	0	0	1	0	5-8	62.5	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	-3.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: CLE @ GSW

Apr 03, 2026 at 07:43 AM

**Grade: S** — Nailed it.
**Result:** CLE 118 - GSW 111 (Winner: CLE ✓)
**Prediction:** CLE 120 - GSW 112
Score error: 2/1 | Total: pred 232, actual 229 (-3)

**Standout Players:**
  Max Strus (CLE): 24p actual vs 13.5p pred (-10.5)
  Sam Merrill (CLE): 3p actual vs 15.2p pred (+12.2)
  Gui Santos (GSW): 25p actual vs 13.0p pred (-12.0)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -460 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -470 — WON

General Slate Analysis: CLE @ GSW

Apr 02, 2026 at 07:47 AM

**Prediction:** CLE 120 - GSW 109 (CLE by 11, total 229)
**Confidence:** 94%

**CLE** 45-28 (#4) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 111.9 | Rest: 1d rest
**GSW** 35-38 (#10) | Net: 0.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: B2B
Projected pace: 102.2

**Injuries:**
  CLE: Sam Merrill (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Day-To-Day), Dean Wade (Out) (impact: -3.9 pts)
  GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Al Horford (Day-To-Day), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Day-To-Day), Will Richard (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  CLE: Donovan Mitchell 30.2p/4.0r/5.2a | James Harden 23.3p/4.5r/7.8a | Evan Mobley 18.4p/10.9r/2.9a
  GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 18.5p/6.1r/2.9a | Brandin Podziemski 16.9p/5.3r/4.2a | Gui Santos 13.9p/4.3r/3.2a

**Value Bets:**
  MONEYLINE CLE -460 (moderate, EV $0.146/dollar)
  MONEYLINE CLE -470 (moderate, EV $0.141/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Cleveland Cavaliers 118 @ 111 Golden State Warriors