Milwaukee Bucks 113 @ 119 Houston Rockets

April 01, 2026 | Toyota Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

MIL HOU Total
Predicted 105 120 225
Actual 113 119 232
Diff -8 +1 -7
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Clint Capela Pred: 3/5/0 | Actual: 2/5/0
Amen Thompson Pred: 18/7/6 | Actual: 18/8/6
Aaron Holiday Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 3/1/0
Alex Antetokounmpo Pred: 3/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Ousmane Dieng Pred: 6pts | Actual: 36pts (off by 29)
Pete Nance Pred: 6pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 17)
Reed Sheppard Pred: 15pts | Actual: 27pts (off by 11)

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Gary Trent Jr. SG 7:28 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Ousmane Dieng SF 44:41 36 7 10 1 0 5 1 15-31 48.4 1-7 14.3 5-5 100.0 -11.0
AJ Green PG 46:29 15 8 2 0 0 2 3 5-15 33.3 5-13 38.5 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Pete Nance PF 39:51 23 3 0 0 1 2 1 9-13 69.2 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jericho Sims C 35:43 6 20 2 0 0 1 4 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 4-6 66.7 -7.0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo 4:07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. 23:25 8 5 3 0 0 2 2 3-8 37.5 2-3 66.7 0-2 0.0 2.0
Kyle Kuzma DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis DNP - Coach's Decision
Taurean Prince DNP - Inactive
Ryan Rollins DNP - Inactive
Myles Turner DNP - Coach's Decision

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 39:53 18 8 6 2 0 0 1 5-10 50.0 0-0 0.0 8-8 100.0 12.0
Kevin Durant SF 39:18 19 5 9 0 1 2 2 7-16 43.8 2-6 33.3 3-4 75.0 6.0
Reed Sheppard PG 37:09 27 4 6 2 0 0 0 9-15 60.0 9-14 64.3 0-0 0.0 17.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 33:04 12 7 4 0 2 2 2 5-15 33.3 2-8 25.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Alperen Sengun C 29:28 25 9 4 2 1 0 5 9-13 69.2 2-2 100.0 5-6 83.3 6.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 7:33 2 5 0 1 0 2 1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Inactive
JD Davison DNP - Coach's Decision
Tari Eason 23:56 5 2 0 0 0 0 2 1-8 12.5 1-7 14.3 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 13:26 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 12:57 8 1 1 0 0 1 0 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 4.0
Jae'Sean Tate 3:14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MIL @ HOU
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** MIL 113 - HOU 119 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** MIL 105 - HOU 120 Score error: 8/1 | Total: pred 225, actual 232 (+7) **Standout Players:** Kevin Durant (HOU): 19p actual vs 29.7p pred (+10.7) Gary Trent Jr. (MIL): 0p actual vs 11.2p pred (+11.2) Ousmane Dieng (MIL): 36p actual vs 6.4p pred (-29.6) Pete Nance (MIL): 23p actual vs 5.9p pred (-17.1) Reed Sheppard (HOU): 27p actual vs 15.1p pred (-11.9) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ SPREAD HOU -17.0 — LOST ✗ SPREAD HOU -17.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 218.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: MIL @ HOU
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** MIL 96 - HOU 119 (HOU by 23, total 215) **Confidence:** 97% **MIL** 29-43 (#11) | Net: -6.0 | Off: 110.4 | Def: 116.4 | Rest: B2B **HOU** 43-29 (#6) | Net: 3.8 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 99.5 **Injuries:** MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Out), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out), Bobby Portis (Out) (impact: -9.0 pts) HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) **Key Players:** MIL: Ryan Rollins 20.4p/4.0r/6.3a | Kyle Kuzma 13.6p/3.7r/2.4a | Gary Trent Jr. 12.6p/1.5r/1.5a HOU: Kevin Durant 28.3p/4.6r/6.2a | Alperen Sengun 20.9p/9.8r/5.8a | Amen Thompson 16.5p/6.4r/5.4a **Value Bets:** SPREAD HOU -17.0 (moderate, EV $0.310/dollar) SPREAD HOU -17.5 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 218.5 (slight, EV $0.122/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred