Indiana Pacers 145 @ 126 Chicago Bulls

April 01, 2026 | United Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

IND CHI Total
Predicted 118 125 243
Actual 145 126 271
Diff -27 -1 -28
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Collin Sexton Pred: 18/2/4 | Actual: 18/3/4
Mac McClung Pred: 6/1/0 | Actual: 8/2/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Ethan Thompson Pred: 7pts | Actual: 24pts (off by 17)
Guerschon Yabusele Pred: 6pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 14)

Indiana Pacers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ethan Thompson SG 30:45 24 2 5 2 1 0 4 8-15 53.3 5-8 62.5 3-4 75.0 22.0
Kobe Brown SF 28:03 17 8 6 0 0 2 2 8-10 80.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 18.0
Quenton Jackson PG 16:55 8 3 6 1 0 1 2 3-6 50.0 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 24.0
Pascal Siakam PF 21:33 25 4 5 0 0 0 0 11-16 68.8 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 22.0
Jay Huff C 16:50 17 3 3 0 0 2 2 6-8 75.0 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 23.0
Johnny Furphy DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Haliburton DNP - Inactive
Kam Jones 25:16 9 1 7 2 0 2 2 4-8 50.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
T.J. McConnell DNP - Coach's Decision
Andrew Nembhard DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Nesmith DNP - Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter 27:28 10 3 0 3 0 1 5 4-11 36.4 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Micah Potter 16:50 8 4 4 1 0 1 1 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 0.0
Ben Sheppard 21:34 13 2 5 2 1 2 1 6-11 54.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Obi Toppin 10:48 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 3-6 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jarace Walker DNP - Coach's Decision
Ivica Zubac DNP - Inactive

Chicago Bulls

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Collin Sexton SG 26:13 18 3 4 1 1 1 2 8-14 57.1 1-5 20.0 1-1 100.0 -13.0
Isaac Okoro SF 26:14 14 1 2 1 0 0 2 4-5 80.0 3-4 75.0 3-4 75.0 -10.0
Tre Jones PG 25:14 15 2 1 0 0 3 0 7-11 63.6 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -21.0
Matas Buzelis PF 28:51 17 9 6 2 0 4 1 5-11 45.5 3-7 42.9 4-4 100.0 -18.0
Guerschon Yabusele C 25:07 20 6 1 0 0 1 0 6-12 50.0 2-7 28.6 6-8 75.0 -15.0
Zach Collins DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham 28:59 15 2 3 0 0 2 1 6-14 42.9 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 -7.0
Noa Essengue DNP - Inactive
Josh Giddey DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura 15:32 0 3 3 2 0 1 0 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Mac McClung 10:59 8 2 0 0 1 1 1 3-6 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Leonard Miller 22:21 11 6 0 0 1 1 2 4-9 44.4 1-3 33.3 2-4 50.0 -12.0
Lachlan Olbrich 17:16 8 8 1 0 1 3 2 4-8 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Nick Richards DNP - Inactive
Anfernee Simons DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Smith DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams 13:14 0 4 1 0 0 3 3 0-4 0.0 0-4 0.0 0-2 0.0 -12.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: IND @ CHI
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** IND 145 - CHI 126 (Winner: IND ✗) **Prediction:** IND 118 - CHI 125 Score error: 27/1 | Total: pred 243, actual 271 (+28) **Standout Players:** Guerschon Yabusele (CHI): 20p actual vs 6.0p pred (-14.0) Ethan Thompson (IND): 24p actual vs 6.9p pred (-17.1) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 246.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 247.5 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHI -192 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE CHI -198 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: IND @ CHI
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** IND 115 - CHI 120 (CHI by 5, total 235) **Confidence:** 82% **IND** 16-57 (#15) | Net: -8.5 | Off: 108.1 | Def: 116.6 | Rest: 2d rest **CHI** 29-43 (#12) | Net: -4.3 | Off: 111.1 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.7 **Injuries:** IND: Johnny Furphy (Out), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), T.J. McConnell (Out), Andrew Nembhard (Out), Aaron Nesmith (Out), Pascal Siakam (Day-To-Day), Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day), Jarace Walker (Out), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -7.1 pts) CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Nick Richards (Out), Anfernee Simons (Out), Jalen Smith (Out) (impact: -5.4 pts) **Key Players:** IND: Pascal Siakam 28.2p/7.5r/3.9a | Obi Toppin 13.9p/4.4r/2.6a | Micah Potter 11.9p/5.3r/1.4a CHI: Collin Sexton 20.8p/1.9r/4.1a | Matas Buzelis 20.5p/8.3r/1.9a | Josh Giddey 18.5p/8.8r/11.7a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 246.5 (strong, EV $0.523/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 247.5 (strong, EV $0.464/dollar) MONEYLINE CHI -192 (strong, EV $0.252/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred