Boston Celtics 147 @ 129 Miami Heat

April 01, 2026 | Kaseya Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

BOS MIA Total
Predicted 116 112 228
Actual 147 129 276
Diff -31 -17 -48
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Max Shulga Pred: 0/0/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Andrew Wiggins Pred: 12/4/2 | Actual: 13/4/2
Simone Fontecchio Pred: 6/3/1 | Actual: 5/2/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Davion Mitchell Pred: 6pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 15)
Bam Adebayo Pred: 15pts | Actual: 29pts (off by 14)
Sam Hauser Pred: 9pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 13)

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jaylen Brown SG 37:20 43 3 7 0 0 1 3 17-29 58.6 4-10 40.0 5-7 71.4 9.0
Sam Hauser SF 28:40 23 3 0 1 1 0 1 9-11 81.8 5-7 71.4 0-1 0.0 23.0
Derrick White PG 34:25 6 5 4 0 1 3 1 3-4 75.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Jayson Tatum PF 37:14 25 18 11 2 0 2 2 9-21 42.9 4-13 30.8 3-4 75.0 7.0
Neemias Queta C 33:05 16 11 3 0 3 0 3 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 6-8 75.0 28.0
Charles Bassey DNP - Coach's Decision
Luka Garza 14:47 12 2 0 0 1 0 2 5-10 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Hugo González 0:07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Ron Harper Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Payton Pritchard 31:09 14 3 4 0 1 0 2 5-9 55.6 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 20.0
Baylor Scheierman 17:48 8 2 4 1 0 1 3 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 14.0
Max Shulga 0:07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
John Tonje DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Vučević DNP - Inactive
Jordan Walsh 5:14 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Amari Williams DNP - Coach's Decision

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tyler Herro SG 40:20 18 3 7 0 1 3 5 5-15 33.3 4-10 40.0 4-4 100.0 -11.0
Pelle Larsson SF 37:51 18 3 6 3 0 1 2 7-13 53.8 2-4 50.0 2-4 50.0 7.0
Davion Mitchell PG 40:23 21 2 7 0 0 0 2 8-15 53.3 5-10 50.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Andrew Wiggins PF 32:07 13 4 2 0 2 0 2 4-7 57.1 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 -17.0
Bam Adebayo C 37:51 29 10 2 2 0 3 2 10-21 47.6 5-10 50.0 4-8 50.0 -23.0
Simone Fontecchio 4:57 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Myron Gardner DNP - Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Coach's Decision
Kasparas JakuÄŤionis DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29:46 17 10 2 0 1 2 1 7-16 43.8 2-5 40.0 1-1 100.0 -23.0
Keshad Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović DNP - Coach's Decision
Norman Powell DNP - Inactive
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith 3:53 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -18.0
Kel'el Ware 12:52 8 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: BOS @ MIA
Apr 02, 2026 at 06:27 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** BOS 147 - MIA 129 (Winner: BOS ✓) **Prediction:** BOS 116 - MIA 112 Score error: 31/17 | Total: pred 228, actual 276 (+48) **Standout Players:** Jaylen Brown (BOS): 43p actual vs 32.4p pred (-10.6) Bam Adebayo (MIA): 29p actual vs 14.9p pred (-14.1) Derrick White (BOS): 6p actual vs 17.5p pred (+11.5) Davion Mitchell (MIA): 21p actual vs 5.8p pred (-15.2) Sam Hauser (BOS): 23p actual vs 9.3p pred (-13.7) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -205 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -210 — WON ✗ TOTAL UNDER 229.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 227.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: BOS @ MIA
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:22 AM
**Prediction:** BOS 115 - MIA 108 (BOS by 7, total 223) **Confidence:** 92% **BOS** 48-24 (#2) | Net: 7.3 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.8 | Rest: 1d rest **MIA** 39-34 (#10) | Net: 2.7 | Off: 113.0 | Def: 110.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.1 **Injuries:** BOS: Ron Harper Jr. (Day-To-Day), Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) MIA: Norman Powell (Out), Terry Rozier (Out), Andrew Wiggins (Day-To-Day) (impact: -6.6 pts) **Key Players:** BOS: Jaylen Brown 34.6p/7.6r/5.9a | Jayson Tatum 23.7p/9.6r/4.9a | Payton Pritchard 19.8p/3.6r/4.7a MIA: Tyler Herro 17.0p/3.0r/3.2a | Bam Adebayo 16.7p/11.0r/3.3a | Jaime Jaquez Jr. 11.7p/4.3r/4.2a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE BOS -205 (strong, EV $0.364/dollar) MONEYLINE BOS -210 (strong, EV $0.354/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 229.5 (moderate, EV $0.239/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred