Cleveland Cavaliers 113 @ 127 Los Angeles Lakers

March 31, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

CLE LAL Total
Predicted 119 120 239
Actual 113 127 240
Diff +6 -7 -1
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Larry Nance Jr. Pred: 2/3/1 | Actual: 2/4/1
Keon Ellis Pred: 8/2/1 | Actual: 7/2/0
LeBron James Pred: 16/6/7 | Actual: 14/5/6
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Donovan Mitchell Pred: 30pts | Actual: 10pts (off by 20)
Evan Mobley Pred: 18pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 12)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 24:10 10 3 6 0 0 2 1 4-10 40.0 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 -24.0
Max Strus SF 23:15 11 3 1 0 0 0 4 4-8 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 -10.0
James Harden PG 27:41 17 0 3 0 0 3 1 6-13 46.2 2-5 40.0 3-5 60.0 -19.0
Evan Mobley PF 21:31 6 4 4 0 0 1 2 2-4 50.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -18.0
Jarrett Allen C 18:39 18 4 2 1 0 1 2 9-11 81.8 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -7.0
Thomas Bryant 24:39 14 6 0 0 1 0 1 5-7 71.4 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 5.0
Keon Ellis 19:21 7 2 0 1 0 1 1 2-6 33.3 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Inactive
Sam Merrill DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr. 12:00 2 4 1 2 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 13.0
Craig Porter Jr. 15:32 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0-3 0.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Tyrese Proctor 12:00 10 2 4 0 0 0 1 3-5 60.0 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 13.0
Dennis Schröder 18:52 9 3 3 1 1 3 2 3-7 42.9 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -14.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 22:20 9 3 1 0 0 1 4 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade DNP - Inactive

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Austin Reaves SG 36:45 19 6 4 2 1 5 3 6-16 37.5 2-9 22.2 5-5 100.0 4.0
LeBron James SF 30:38 14 5 6 1 1 3 2 4-8 50.0 1-3 33.3 5-6 83.3 4.0
Luka Dončić PG 33:57 42 5 12 2 0 0 4 13-26 50.0 6-13 46.2 10-10 100.0 21.0
Jake LaRavia PF 38:06 14 7 0 1 0 1 2 5-5 100.0 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 23.0
Deandre Ayton C 28:04 18 9 1 1 1 0 1 8-13 61.5 0-0 0.0 2-3 66.7 10.0
Kobe Bufkin 1:21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Rui Hachimura 18:51 14 1 0 0 1 0 1 6-8 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 10.0
Jaxson Hayes 18:35 4 3 1 2 0 0 0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Bronny James 6:53 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Luke Kennard 22:47 2 1 2 0 0 1 3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Maxi Kleber DNP - Coach's Decision
Dalton Knecht 1:21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Chris Mañon DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr. DNP - Inactive
Adou Thiero 1:21 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Drew Timme 1:21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Jarred Vanderbilt DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CLE @ LAL
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: A** — Winner right, total was close. **Result:** CLE 113 - LAL 127 (Winner: LAL ✓) **Prediction:** CLE 119 - LAL 120 Score error: 6/7 | Total: pred 239, actual 240 (+1) **Standout Players:** Donovan Mitchell (CLE): 10p actual vs 30.1p pred (+20.1) Evan Mobley (CLE): 6p actual vs 18.0p pred (+12.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE LAL -120 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAL -125 — WON ✗ TOTAL UNDER 237.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 237.5 — LOST ✓ SPREAD LAL -1.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD LAL -2.0 — WON
General Slate Analysis: CLE @ LAL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** CLE 115 - LAL 119 (LAL by 4, total 233) **Confidence:** 82% **CLE** 45-28 (#4) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 111.9 | Rest: B2B **LAL** 47-26 (#3) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 114.3 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 101.4 **Injuries:** CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Max Strus (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Out), Dean Wade (Out) (impact: -6.1 pts) LAL: Marcus Smart (Out), Adou Thiero (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) **Key Players:** CLE: Donovan Mitchell 29.2p/4.3r/5.5a | James Harden 23.4p/5.2r/10.6a | Evan Mobley 17.9p/10.3r/3.2a LAL: Luka Dončić 33.3p/5.6r/6.3a | Austin Reaves 22.5p/3.9r/6.0a | LeBron James 14.8p/5.5r/6.2a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE LAL -120 (strong, EV $0.498/dollar) MONEYLINE LAL -125 (strong, EV $0.471/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 237.5 (slight, EV $0.169/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred