Cleveland Cavaliers 122 @ 113 Utah Jazz

March 30, 2026 | Delta Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

CLE UTA Total
Predicted 130 111 241
Actual 122 113 235
Diff +8 -2 +6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Oscar Tshiebwe Pred: 8/7/1 | Actual: 7/7/1
John Konchar Pred: 7/5/2 | Actual: 6/4/2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 4/3/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
James Harden Pred: 28pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 15)
Evan Mobley Pred: 21pts | Actual: 34pts (off by 13)
Cody Williams Pred: 14pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 11)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 35:45 34 2 5 1 0 2 1 10-18 55.6 3-8 37.5 11-12 91.7 11.0
Sam Merrill SF 28:09 9 4 3 1 0 0 2 4-14 28.6 0-8 0.0 1-1 100.0 13.0
James Harden PG 38:39 13 6 14 1 1 1 1 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 4-6 66.7 7.0
Keon Ellis PF 31:52 13 2 1 2 1 2 3 6-10 60.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 10.0
Evan Mobley C 29:39 34 17 3 1 3 2 5 15-21 71.4 0-0 0.0 4-5 80.0 21.0
Jarrett Allen DNP - Inactive
Thomas Bryant 18:21 2 7 0 1 0 3 1 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr. 15:15 2 2 3 0 1 0 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Tyrese Proctor 11:46 8 2 1 1 0 1 2 3-6 50.0 1-3 33.3 1-1 100.0 1.0
Dennis Schröder 21:13 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Max Strus DNP - Inactive
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 9:21 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Dean Wade DNP - Inactive

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brice Sensabaugh SG 26:06 18 4 5 1 1 2 4 6-12 50.0 3-5 60.0 3-5 60.0 -14.0
Ace Bailey SF 35:00 19 2 5 0 0 1 3 8-15 53.3 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Cody Williams PF 36:35 26 6 4 2 0 2 3 11-22 50.0 0-2 0.0 4-6 66.7 -2.0
Kyle Filipowski C 24:01 20 10 5 3 1 2 3 7-12 58.3 4-7 57.1 2-2 100.0 0.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Elijah Harkless DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 29:57 6 4 2 0 0 0 2 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk DNP - Coach's Decision
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive
Oscar Tshiebwe 19:09 7 7 1 0 0 0 1 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -7.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CLE @ UTA
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** CLE 122 - UTA 113 (Winner: CLE ✓) **Prediction:** CLE 130 - UTA 111 Score error: 8/2 | Total: pred 241, actual 235 (-6) **Standout Players:** James Harden (CLE): 13p actual vs 28.4p pred (+15.4) Evan Mobley (CLE): 34p actual vs 21.0p pred (-13.0) Cody Williams (UTA): 26p actual vs 14.1p pred (-11.9)
General Slate Analysis: CLE @ UTA
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** CLE 130 - UTA 111 (CLE by 19, total 241) **Confidence:** 96% **CLE** 45-28 (#4) | Net: 3.9 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 111.9 | Rest: 2d rest **UTA** 21-52 (#14) | Net: -7.4 | Off: 111.3 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 103.4 **Injuries:** CLE: Jarrett Allen (Day-To-Day), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Tyrese Proctor (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Out) (impact: -3.6 pts) UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Out), Jusuf Nurkić (Out), Cody Williams (Available) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** CLE: Donovan Mitchell 32.1p/4.6r/5.0a | James Harden 28.4p/4.9r/11.2a | Evan Mobley 21.0p/11.1r/4.6a UTA: Brice Sensabaugh 17.9p/3.1r/2.0a | Ace Bailey 14.8p/5.6r/2.6a | Cody Williams 14.1p/3.1r/3.1a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred