Philadelphia 76ers 109 @ 119 Miami Heat

March 30, 2026 | Kaseya Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

PHI MIA Total
Predicted 117 121 238
Actual 109 119 228
Diff +8 +2 +10
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Davion Mitchell Pred: 7/2/6 | Actual: 9/4/5
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
VJ Edgecombe Pred: 26pts | Actual: 13pts (off by 13)

Philadelphia 76ers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
VJ Edgecombe SG 29:54 13 1 5 2 0 1 4 5-8 62.5 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -33.0
Paul George SF 34:44 19 4 2 1 0 1 2 7-18 38.9 4-11 36.4 1-1 100.0 -22.0
Tyrese Maxey PG 43:55 23 7 9 0 2 2 5 7-20 35.0 2-9 22.2 7-7 100.0 1.0
Dominick Barlow PF 19:44 4 4 0 0 1 0 1 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Joel Embiid C 34:06 26 7 3 0 1 3 4 10-25 40.0 2-6 33.3 4-5 80.0 -18.0
MarJon Beauchamp DNP - Coach's Decision
Adem Bona 14:27 2 3 0 0 1 0 4 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Johni Broome DNP - Inactive
Andre Drummond DNP - Coach's Decision
Justin Edwards 0:36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Quentin Grimes 31:36 11 5 4 0 0 1 1 4-8 50.0 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 12.0
Kyle Lowry DNP - Coach's Decision
Kelly Oubre Jr. 30:56 11 11 3 0 0 1 1 5-14 35.7 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Jabari Walker DNP - Coach's Decision
Trendon Watford DNP - Coach's Decision

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tyler Herro SG 41:54 30 4 3 1 2 3 2 12-24 50.0 3-10 30.0 3-5 60.0 18.0
Pelle Larsson SF 36:26 20 10 3 1 0 0 2 8-13 61.5 0-4 0.0 4-6 66.7 18.0
Davion Mitchell PG 30:00 9 4 5 0 0 3 3 4-9 44.4 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Andrew Wiggins PF 35:40 14 8 0 3 2 2 1 6-13 46.2 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 5.0
Bam Adebayo C 41:57 23 16 6 1 0 2 2 5-11 45.5 1-4 25.0 12-13 92.3 27.0
Simone Fontecchio 6:05 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Myron Gardner DNP - Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Coach's Decision
Kasparas Jakučionis DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31:41 14 6 5 0 0 0 1 5-13 38.5 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 11.0
Keshad Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović DNP - Coach's Decision
Norman Powell DNP - Inactive
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith 3:04 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -5.0
Kel'el Ware 13:11 5 6 2 0 0 1 2 2-7 28.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: PHI @ MIA
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:25 AM
**Grade: A** β€” Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** PHI 109 - MIA 119 (Winner: MIA βœ“) **Prediction:** PHI 117 - MIA 121 Score error: 8/2 | Total: pred 238, actual 228 (-10) **Standout Players:** VJ Edgecombe (PHI): 13p actual vs 26.1p pred (+13.1) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ MONEYLINE MIA 116 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE MIA 114 β€” WON βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 246.5 β€” WON βœ“ TOTAL UNDER 246.5 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD MIA 2.0 β€” WON βœ“ SPREAD MIA 2.5 β€” WON
General Slate Analysis: PHI @ MIA
Mar 30, 2026 at 06:58 AM
**Prediction:** PHI 117 - MIA 121 (MIA by 4, total 238) **Confidence:** 81% **PHI** 40-33 (#7) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 112.4 | Def: 112.8 | Rest: 1d rest **MIA** 39-34 (#10) | Net: 2.7 | Off: 113.0 | Def: 110.3 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 104.2 **Injuries:** PHI: Johni Broome (Out), Joel Embiid (Available), Paul George (Out), Quentin Grimes (Available), Tyrese Maxey (Out), Kelly Oubre Jr. (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts) MIA: Terry Rozier (Out), Jahmir Young (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.3 pts) **Key Players:** PHI: Joel Embiid 35.4p/9.8r/4.7a | VJ Edgecombe 26.1p/8.3r/6.0a | Quentin Grimes 19.6p/3.9r/4.2a MIA: Tyler Herro 20.4p/3.3r/4.3a | Bam Adebayo 18.2p/11.9r/2.5a | Norman Powell 17.6p/2.9r/2.0a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE MIA 116 (strong, EV $0.758/dollar) MONEYLINE MIA 114 (strong, EV $0.742/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 246.5 (strong, EV $0.349/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred