San Antonio Spurs 127 @ 95 Milwaukee Bucks

March 28, 2026 | Fiserv Forum | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

SAS MIL Total
Predicted 125 102 226
Actual 127 95 222
Diff -2 +7 +4
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jordan McLaughlin Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 2/0/0
AJ Green Pred: 8/2/2 | Actual: 7/3/3
Devin Vassell Pred: 15/4/3 | Actual: 16/4/1
Kelly Olynyk Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 1/2/2
Pete Nance Pred: 5/3/1 | Actual: 5/5/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Gary Trent Jr. Pred: 7pts | Actual: 18pts (off by 11)

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Stephon Castle SG 29:20 22 10 10 0 0 3 2 9-13 69.2 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 19.0
Devin Vassell SF 24:09 16 4 1 3 1 0 3 6-11 54.5 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 4.0
De'Aaron Fox PG 20:32 12 2 6 1 0 1 0 6-9 66.7 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 22.0
Julian Champagnie PF 22:52 11 4 0 2 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 17.0
Victor Wembanyama C 30:41 23 15 6 2 1 3 1 7-21 33.3 0-3 0.0 9-10 90.0 14.0
Harrison Barnes 18:24 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 30.0
Bismack Biyombo DNP - Coach's Decision
Carter Bryant 10:55 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Dylan Harper 21:08 14 1 2 1 0 2 0 6-8 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 19.0
Harrison Ingram DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson 23:18 16 0 5 1 0 0 0 6-8 75.0 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 26.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet 21:24 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 19.0
Jordan McLaughlin 5:20 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk 5:20 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -3.0
Lindy Waters III 6:37 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-3 0.0 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 -3.0

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Gary Trent Jr. SG 26:08 18 1 2 2 0 2 2 8-11 72.7 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Ousmane Dieng SF 35:43 12 6 5 4 0 4 1 5-14 35.7 1-4 25.0 1-1 100.0 -16.0
Ryan Rollins PG 25:23 12 1 4 1 1 5 1 5-15 33.3 0-7 0.0 2-2 100.0 -18.0
Pete Nance PF 30:11 5 5 3 0 0 0 3 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Myles Turner C 27:48 15 6 1 1 2 0 4 5-12 41.7 4-9 44.4 1-2 50.0 -28.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Thanasis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
AJ Green 26:37 7 3 3 0 2 0 1 2-6 33.3 2-6 33.3 1-1 100.0 -18.0
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. 13:37 11 1 0 0 0 2 0 4-9 44.4 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Kyle Kuzma DNP - Inactive
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis DNP - Coach's Decision
Taurean Prince 25:36 5 3 2 0 0 2 3 2-8 25.0 1-6 16.7 0-0 0.0 -29.0
Jericho Sims 21:44 10 10 2 0 0 2 1 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: SAS @ MIL
Mar 29, 2026 at 08:30 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** SAS 127 - MIL 95 (Winner: SAS ✓) **Prediction:** SAS 125 - MIL 102 Score error: 2/7 | Total: pred 226, actual 222 (-4) **Standout Players:** Gary Trent Jr. (MIL): 18p actual vs 6.8p pred (-11.2) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ SPREAD SAS -18.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAS -18.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: SAS @ MIL
Mar 28, 2026 at 08:07 AM
**Prediction:** SAS 125 - MIL 102 (SAS by 23, total 226) **Confidence:** 97% **SAS** 55-18 (#2) | Net: 7.6 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.5 | Rest: 2d rest **MIL** 29-43 (#11) | Net: -6.0 | Off: 110.4 | Def: 116.4 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 101.1 **Injuries:** SAS: David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Day-To-Day), Kyle Kuzma (Day-To-Day), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out) (impact: -8.1 pts) **Key Players:** SAS: Victor Wembanyama 23.2p/11.3r/2.2a | De'Aaron Fox 19.0p/3.6r/5.5a | Stephon Castle 17.3p/3.6r/9.6a MIL: Bobby Portis 17.0p/8.2r/2.3a | Ryan Rollins 16.5p/5.8r/7.0a | Cam Thomas 13.8p/1.5r/2.1a **Value Bets:** SPREAD SAS -18.5 (moderate, EV $0.202/dollar) SPREAD SAS -18.5 (moderate, EV $0.202/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred