Los Angeles Clippers 114 @ 113 Indiana Pacers

March 27, 2026 | Gainbridge Fieldhouse | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

LAC IND Total
Predicted 122 111 233
Actual 114 113 227
Diff +8 -2 +6
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Quenton Jackson Pred: 9/2/3 | Actual: 7/2/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Aaron Nesmith Pred: 10pts | Actual: 26pts (off by 15)
Pascal Siakam Pred: 24pts | Actual: 11pts (off by 13)
Obi Toppin Pred: 8pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 11)

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 25:47 4 3 3 1 1 1 4 2-7 28.6 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 34:32 28 8 4 3 0 0 2 13-26 50.0 1-6 16.7 1-2 50.0 17.0
Darius Garland PG 34:32 30 0 5 0 0 4 1 10-19 52.6 6-11 54.5 4-4 100.0 2.0
John Collins PF 19:52 5 6 1 2 0 0 2 2-6 33.3 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Brook Lopez C 33:14 16 9 4 0 2 1 3 6-11 54.5 3-6 50.0 1-1 100.0 10.0
Nicolas Batum 14:29 3 5 0 2 0 0 0 1-5 20.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie DNP - Coach's Decision
Kris Dunn 20:37 2 3 1 2 0 0 1 1-6 16.7 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Isaiah Jackson 14:27 4 4 0 0 0 2 3 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -6.0
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 29:15 17 7 1 1 0 2 1 2-8 25.0 1-3 33.3 12-15 80.0 2.0
Jordan Miller 13:14 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 1-3 33.3 -2.0
Kobe Sanders DNP - Coach's Decision
TyTy Washington Jr. DNP - Inactive

Indiana Pacers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Aaron Nesmith SG 35:24 26 7 2 1 0 5 5 10-14 71.4 4-5 80.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Jarace Walker SF 4:23 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Andrew Nembhard PG 32:14 13 1 10 1 1 2 5 4-13 30.8 2-7 28.6 3-3 100.0 8.0
Pascal Siakam PF 32:44 11 6 3 1 0 5 3 4-16 25.0 0-3 0.0 3-4 75.0 -6.0
Jay Huff C 20:18 3 3 4 0 1 2 1 1-4 25.0 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 -6.0
Kobe Brown 26:49 11 4 3 2 1 1 1 4-8 50.0 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 5.0
Johnny Furphy DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Haliburton DNP - Inactive
Quenton Jackson 13:08 7 2 3 0 0 2 1 3-5 60.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Kam Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
T.J. McConnell 13:27 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Taelon Peter DNP - Coach's Decision
Micah Potter 15:55 13 7 0 0 1 1 2 5-8 62.5 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 6.0
Ben Sheppard 18:33 2 3 0 0 0 1 3 1-3 33.3 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Ethan Thompson DNP - Coach's Decision
Obi Toppin 22:54 20 8 4 0 0 1 3 8-11 72.7 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ivica Zubac DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAC @ IND
Mar 28, 2026 at 07:38 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** LAC 114 - IND 113 (Winner: LAC ✓) **Prediction:** LAC 122 - IND 111 Score error: 8/2 | Total: pred 233, actual 227 (-6) **Standout Players:** Pascal Siakam (IND): 11p actual vs 24.0p pred (+13.0) Obi Toppin (IND): 20p actual vs 8.1p pred (-11.9) Aaron Nesmith (IND): 26p actual vs 10.2p pred (-15.8) Jarace Walker (IND): 5p actual vs 15.0p pred (+10.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -395 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -400 — WON
General Slate Analysis: LAC @ IND
Mar 27, 2026 at 05:33 PM
**Prediction:** LAC 122 - IND 111 (LAC by 11, total 233) **Confidence:** 94% **LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 1d rest **IND** 16-57 (#15) | Net: -8.5 | Off: 108.1 | Def: 116.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.8 **Injuries:** LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), John Collins (Day-To-Day), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out), Bennedict Mathurin (Out) (impact: -3.9 pts) IND: Johnny Furphy (Out), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -3.7 pts) **Key Players:** LAC: Kawhi Leonard 33.1p/7.6r/2.9a | Darius Garland 25.9p/2.6r/8.9a | Derrick Jones Jr. 12.5p/4.1r/1.6a IND: Pascal Siakam 24.0p/5.8r/2.8a | Jarace Walker 15.0p/5.6r/3.3a | Andrew Nembhard 14.3p/2.8r/7.6a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (moderate, EV $0.239/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (moderate, EV $0.217/dollar) MONEYLINE LAC -395 (moderate, EV $0.183/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred