Los Angeles Lakers 137 @ 130 Indiana Pacers

March 25, 2026 | Gainbridge Fieldhouse | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

LAL IND Total
Predicted 119 111 230
Actual 137 130 267
Diff -18 -19 -37
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Luke Kennard Pred: 8/2/2 | Actual: 8/2/2
Jake LaRavia Pred: 7/3/1 | Actual: 6/5/1
Bronny James Pred: 2/0/1 | Actual: 4/1/1
Aaron Nesmith Pred: 12/3/1 | Actual: 14/3/1
Jarace Walker Pred: 13/7/3 | Actual: 15/6/4
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jaxson Hayes Pred: 7pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 13)

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Austin Reaves SG 37:58 25 1 8 2 0 2 3 7-16 43.8 2-7 28.6 9-9 100.0 14.0
Jake LaRavia SF 28:37 6 5 1 4 1 3 3 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Luka Dončić PG 37:30 43 6 7 1 0 5 5 15-30 50.0 4-11 36.4 9-10 90.0 6.0
LeBron James PF 34:28 23 9 9 1 0 1 1 9-17 52.9 0-1 0.0 5-5 100.0 24.0
Jaxson Hayes C 36:15 21 10 1 2 2 0 1 9-11 81.8 0-0 0.0 3-6 50.0 2.0
Deandre Ayton DNP - Inactive
Kobe Bufkin DNP - Coach's Decision
Rui Hachimura DNP - Inactive
Bronny James 13:22 4 1 1 2 1 0 3 2-4 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Luke Kennard 27:59 8 2 2 0 0 1 3 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Maxi Kleber 11:23 2 4 1 2 0 1 2 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 4.0
Dalton Knecht DNP - Coach's Decision
Chris Mañon DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr. DNP - Inactive
Adou Thiero DNP - Inactive
Drew Timme DNP - Coach's Decision
Jarred Vanderbilt 12:27 5 1 0 1 0 0 1 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0

Indiana Pacers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Aaron Nesmith SG 32:07 14 3 1 1 0 3 5 6-13 46.2 2-8 25.0 0-2 0.0 11.0
Jarace Walker SF 29:33 15 6 4 0 0 3 3 5-9 55.6 4-8 50.0 1-2 50.0 -9.0
Andrew Nembhard PG 33:34 14 2 19 0 0 2 4 3-9 33.3 2-6 33.3 6-6 100.0 4.0
Pascal Siakam PF 29:48 20 8 1 1 0 4 6 7-15 46.7 1-2 50.0 5-7 71.4 -20.0
Jay Huff C 31:35 18 6 1 0 1 1 1 7-10 70.0 2-5 40.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Kobe Brown 8:25 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Johnny Furphy DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Haliburton DNP - Inactive
Quenton Jackson 7:07 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Kam Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
T.J. McConnell 14:26 17 2 3 1 1 0 0 8-10 80.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 -11.0
Taelon Peter DNP - Inactive
Micah Potter 16:03 4 2 0 0 0 0 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -12.0
Ben Sheppard 17:29 13 2 2 1 0 0 3 4-6 66.7 4-5 80.0 1-1 100.0 5.0
Ethan Thompson DNP - Inactive
Obi Toppin 19:51 15 3 2 3 0 3 0 7-10 70.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ivica Zubac DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: LAL @ IND
Mar 25, 2026 at 06:18 AM
**Prediction:** LAL 119 - IND 108 (LAL by 11, total 227) **Confidence:** 94% **LAL** 32-20 (#5) | Net: 0.1 | Off: 115.1 | Def: 114.9 | Rest: 1d rest **IND** 13-40 (#15) | Net: -7.6 | Off: 106.9 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** LAL: Rui Hachimura (Day-To-Day), Marcus Smart (Day-To-Day), Nick Smith Jr. (Day-To-Day), Adou Thiero (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.0 pts) IND: Johnny Furphy (Day-To-Day), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), Andrew Nembhard (Day-To-Day), Aaron Nesmith (Day-To-Day), Pascal Siakam (Day-To-Day), Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -4.4 pts) **Key Players:** LAL: Luka Dončić 39.6p/7.0r/6.7a | Austin Reaves 21.0p/3.3r/5.8a | LeBron James 15.2p/5.3r/4.9a IND: Pascal Siakam 22.4p/4.8r/2.9a | Andrew Nembhard 15.5p/1.9r/6.4a | Jarace Walker 13.8p/7.0r/3.6a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (strong, EV $0.489/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (strong, EV $0.458/dollar) MONEYLINE LAL -520 (moderate, EV $0.124/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred