Orlando Magic 131 @ 136 Cleveland Cavaliers

March 24, 2026 | Rocket Arena | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

ORL CLE Total
Predicted 97 116 212
Actual 131 136 267
Diff -34 -20 -55
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jett Howard Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 5/1/2
Thomas Bryant Pred: 8/4/0 | Actual: 9/6/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jamal Cain Pred: 4pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 12)
Paolo Banchero Pred: 26pts | Actual: 36pts (off by 10)

Orlando Magic

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tristan da Silva SG 35:58 18 6 3 0 0 1 0 5-11 45.5 3-7 42.9 5-5 100.0 5.0
Jamal Cain SF 31:41 17 6 3 0 0 0 1 5-11 45.5 1-3 33.3 6-6 100.0 8.0
Desmond Bane PG 36:24 17 7 3 2 0 2 4 5-13 38.5 1-3 33.3 6-6 100.0 -5.0
Paolo Banchero PF 39:58 36 6 5 1 1 5 4 10-19 52.6 3-7 42.9 13-15 86.7 -3.0
Wendell Carter Jr. C 29:12 15 5 2 1 1 0 6 4-7 57.1 2-5 40.0 5-6 83.3 -3.0
Goga Bitadze 13:34 4 2 3 1 0 0 3 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Anthony Black DNP - Inactive
Jevon Carter 27:28 15 4 4 1 0 0 0 6-12 50.0 3-9 33.3 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Colin Castleton DNP - Coach's Decision
Jett Howard 16:06 5 1 2 0 0 0 2 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Jonathan Isaac DNP - Inactive
Noah Penda 4:37 0 0 2 0 0 1 3 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jase Richardson DNP - Coach's Decision
Jalen Suggs DNP - Inactive
Franz Wagner DNP - Inactive
Moritz Wagner 4:59 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donovan Mitchell SG 34:43 42 2 3 0 0 2 4 14-22 63.6 3-7 42.9 11-11 100.0 2.0
Sam Merrill SF 32:56 19 4 1 2 0 0 2 6-11 54.5 2-6 33.3 5-6 83.3 4.0
James Harden PG 37:10 26 3 7 1 1 2 4 8-16 50.0 4-6 66.7 6-7 85.7 -2.0
Dean Wade PF 20:41 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Evan Mobley C 32:30 19 9 6 0 1 3 4 8-8 100.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 -4.0
Jarrett Allen DNP - Inactive
Thomas Bryant 13:13 9 6 1 2 0 1 2 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 13.0
Keon Ellis 19:57 2 3 0 1 1 0 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Tristan Enaruna DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr. DNP - Inactive
Craig Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Proctor DNP - Coach's Decision
Dennis Schröder 15:55 6 1 2 0 0 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Max Strus 26:41 11 3 3 1 0 0 3 4-10 40.0 3-8 37.5 0-0 0.0 13.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 6:12 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 3.0
Jaylon Tyson DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: ORL @ CLE
Mar 23, 2026 at 08:14 PM
**Prediction:** ORL 97 - CLE 116 (CLE by 19, total 212) **Confidence:** 96% **ORL** 28-24 (#7) | Net: 0.0 | Off: 111.5 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: B2B **CLE** 33-21 (#4) | Net: 3.5 | Off: 115.0 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 103.2 **Injuries:** ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out), Franz Wagner (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts) CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Tyrese Proctor (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Out) (impact: -5.0 pts) **Key Players:** ORL: Paolo Banchero 26.0p/8.2r/4.9a | Desmond Bane 22.2p/4.1r/3.9a | Wendell Carter Jr. 12.9p/8.4r/2.2a CLE: Donovan Mitchell 34.1p/4.9r/7.2a | James Harden 30.3p/5.7r/9.6a | Evan Mobley 22.3p/12.4r/3.1a **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred