Milwaukee Bucks 96 @ 129 Los Angeles Clippers

March 23, 2026 | Intuit Dome | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

MIL LAC Total
Predicted 100 115 215
Actual 96 129 225
Diff +4 -14 -10
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Kawhi Leonard Pred: 29/6/3 | Actual: 28/5/3
TyTy Washington Jr. Pred: 2/0/1 | Actual: 2/1/3
Nicolas Batum Pred: 4/3/1 | Actual: 3/4/0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/2/2
Jordan Miller Pred: 13/4/3 | Actual: 10/4/4
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Brook Lopez Pred: 7pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 11)
Kobe Sanders Pred: 7pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 11)
Gary Trent Jr. Pred: 9pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 11)

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ousmane Dieng SG 26:55 7 5 7 0 0 4 1 3-8 37.5 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -37.0
Jericho Sims SF 19:21 4 3 1 1 0 3 2 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Ryan Rollins PG 27:04 13 4 7 2 0 5 0 6-16 37.5 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -37.0
Taurean Prince PF 19:32 5 6 0 0 0 2 3 2-7 28.6 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Myles Turner C 20:14 7 0 0 1 1 2 3 2-7 28.6 1-5 20.0 2-3 66.7 -22.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 7:34 0 2 2 0 0 1 2 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
AJ Green 20:56 15 1 2 0 0 2 0 4-5 80.0 4-5 80.0 3-4 75.0 4.0
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. 16:11 3 4 6 1 0 2 2 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Kyle Kuzma DNP - Inactive
Pete Nance 31:25 11 6 2 0 1 0 2 5-12 41.7 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis 19:43 11 6 1 1 0 0 1 5-12 41.7 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 -24.0
Cam Thomas DNP - Inactive
Gary Trent Jr. 31:05 20 1 1 0 0 1 1 7-13 53.8 6-10 60.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Derrick Jones Jr. SG 23:06 7 5 1 0 1 0 1 3-5 60.0 0-2 0.0 1-1 100.0 28.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 24:47 28 5 3 3 1 2 1 8-18 44.4 3-10 30.0 9-9 100.0 32.0
Darius Garland PG 18:08 15 2 6 1 0 3 1 5-7 71.4 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 25.0
Nicolas Batum PF 21:23 3 4 0 2 0 1 1 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 28.0
Brook Lopez C 21:47 19 3 3 1 2 1 4 7-9 77.8 5-6 83.3 0-0 0.0 28.0
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović 7:34 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Cam Christie 15:46 8 1 1 2 0 0 0 3-4 75.0 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 -9.0
John Collins DNP - Inactive
Kris Dunn 21:00 7 1 3 2 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 27.0
Isaiah Jackson 17:23 6 4 1 1 1 1 2 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 17.0
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin DNP - Inactive
Jordan Miller 21:23 10 4 4 0 0 2 1 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 18.0
Kobe Sanders 25:31 19 3 4 1 1 2 4 8-10 80.0 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
TyTy Washington Jr. 13:22 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: MIL @ LAC
Mar 23, 2026 at 12:04 AM
**Prediction:** MIL 99 - LAC 115 (LAC by 16, total 214) **Confidence:** 96% **MIL** 21-30 (#12) | Net: -4.0 | Off: 111.2 | Def: 115.3 | Rest: 1d rest **LAC** 25-27 (#10) | Net: -0.4 | Off: 113.4 | Def: 113.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 99.2 **Injuries:** MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Day-To-Day), Kyle Kuzma (Day-To-Day), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out) (impact: -8.1 pts) LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), John Collins (Day-To-Day), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out), Kawhi Leonard (Day-To-Day), Bennedict Mathurin (Out) (impact: -4.5 pts) **Key Players:** MIL: Ryan Rollins 22.3p/4.9r/7.2a | Bobby Portis 17.6p/8.1r/1.9a | Cam Thomas 12.9p/1.3r/2.3a LAC: Kawhi Leonard 29.1p/5.7r/3.1a | Darius Garland 25.6p/2.3r/8.8a | John Collins 13.0p/5.7r/1.0a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 223.5 (strong, EV $0.440/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 223.5 (strong, EV $0.420/dollar) SPREAD LAC -13.0 (slight, EV $0.126/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred