**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** SAS 47 - MIA 34 (Winner: SAS ✓) **Prediction:** SAS 121 - MIA 117 Score error: 74/83 | Total: pred 239, actual 81 (-158) **Standout Players:** Bam Adebayo (MIA): 10p actual vs 28.5p pred (+18.5) Devin Vassell (SAS): 3p actual vs 16.7p pred (+13.7) Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): 0p actual vs 10.3p pred (+10.3) Victor Wembanyama (SAS): 12p actual vs 26.5p pred (+14.5) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -198 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE SAS -218 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAS -5.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAS -5.0 — WON

**Prediction:** SAS 124 - MIA 113 (SAS by 11, total 238) **Confidence:** 94% **SAS** 36-16 (#2) | Net: 5.3 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.2 | Rest: 1d rest **MIA** 28-27 (#8) | Net: 2.1 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 104.7 **Injuries:** SAS: Stephon Castle (Day-To-Day), David Jones Garcia (Out), Devin Vassell (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.3 pts) MIA: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Day-To-Day), Norman Powell (Day-To-Day), Terry Rozier (Out), Andrew Wiggins (Out), Jahmir Young (Day-To-Day) (impact: -4.2 pts) **Key Players:** SAS: Victor Wembanyama 26.8p/14.2r/3.9a | De'Aaron Fox 20.4p/4.1r/6.5a | Stephon Castle 17.3p/5.2r/7.9a MIA: Bam Adebayo 29.6p/11.7r/2.4a | Tyler Herro 20.2p/5.3r/4.2a | Norman Powell 14.2p/2.5r/1.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE SAS -198 (strong, EV $0.419/dollar) MONEYLINE SAS -218 (strong, EV $0.376/dollar) SPREAD SAS -5.5 (moderate, EV $0.298/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred