**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** IND 36 - ORL 35 (Winner: IND ✗) **Prediction:** IND 110 - ORL 119 Score error: 74/84 | Total: pred 230, actual 71 (-159) **Standout Players:** Andrew Nembhard (IND): 8p actual vs 19.9p pred (+11.9) Aaron Nesmith (IND): 0p actual vs 17.1p pred (+17.1) Desmond Bane (ORL): 3p actual vs 25.4p pred (+22.4) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — WON ✗ MONEYLINE ORL -800 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE ORL -850 — LOST

**Prediction:** IND 105 - ORL 117 (ORL by 12, total 222) **Confidence:** 95% **IND** 13-40 (#15) | Net: -7.6 | Off: 106.9 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 1d rest **ORL** 28-24 (#7) | Net: 0.0 | Off: 111.5 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.8 **Injuries:** IND: Johnny Furphy (Day-To-Day), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), Andrew Nembhard (Day-To-Day), Aaron Nesmith (Day-To-Day), Pascal Siakam (Day-To-Day), Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -4.4 pts) ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out), Franz Wagner (Out) (impact: -8.9 pts) **Key Players:** IND: Pascal Siakam 21.8p/5.3r/2.8a | Andrew Nembhard 17.1p/2.0r/7.2a | Aaron Nesmith 14.7p/3.3r/1.7a ORL: Paolo Banchero 29.1p/10.3r/6.2a | Desmond Bane 25.4p/5.3r/4.9a | Wendell Carter Jr. 17.0p/9.6r/2.8a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.489/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.489/dollar) MONEYLINE ORL -800 (slight, EV $0.065/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred