Milwaukee Bucks 108 @ 105 Phoenix Suns

March 21, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

MIL PHX Total
Predicted 101 113 214
Actual 108 105 213
Diff -7 +8 +1
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jamaree Bouyea Pred: 4/2/2 | Actual: 4/2/2
Khaman Maluach Pred: 3/2/0 | Actual: 2/2/0
Isaiah Livers Pred: 1/2/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Taurean Prince Pred: 6/2/1 | Actual: 8/2/1
Rasheer Fleming Pred: 6/3/0 | Actual: 8/2/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Devin Booker Pred: 38pts | Actual: 14pts (off by 23)

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ousmane Dieng SG 32:52 11 2 2 1 0 2 1 5-11 45.5 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Taurean Prince SF 21:45 8 2 1 0 0 1 1 3-8 37.5 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ryan Rollins PG 33:09 26 10 7 3 0 3 1 10-19 52.6 3-7 42.9 3-6 50.0 6.0
Kyle Kuzma PF 23:50 20 2 1 0 1 2 0 7-12 58.3 3-8 37.5 3-4 75.0 7.0
Myles Turner C 20:31 7 3 0 1 2 2 5 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 2-3 66.7 -7.0
Thanasis Antetokounmpo DNP - Coach's Decision
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
AJ Green 17:26 8 5 2 0 0 1 3 3-6 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Pete Nance 27:01 5 5 3 0 1 0 3 2-3 66.7 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis DNP - Inactive
Jericho Sims 24:41 5 11 3 0 0 1 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 5.0
Cam Thomas 15:37 7 1 1 1 0 3 1 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 -6.0
Gary Trent Jr. 23:05 11 1 0 0 0 0 1 4-10 40.0 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 13.0

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Devin Booker SG 35:13 14 4 7 2 1 3 3 4-17 23.5 2-5 40.0 4-5 80.0 3.0
Jalen Green SF 35:38 24 3 2 0 0 2 1 9-17 52.9 3-6 50.0 3-7 42.9 -14.0
Collin Gillespie PG 33:00 18 4 6 0 0 1 2 6-13 46.2 4-11 36.4 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Jordan Goodwin PF 27:03 11 7 4 1 0 1 2 4-9 44.4 2-6 33.3 1-2 50.0 -3.0
Oso Ighodaro C 31:34 12 5 3 1 0 2 3 6-8 75.0 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -11.0
Grayson Allen DNP - Inactive
Jamaree Bouyea 8:41 4 2 2 0 0 0 1 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Koby Brea DNP - Coach's Decision
Dillon Brooks DNP - Inactive
Amir Coffey DNP - Inactive
Ryan Dunn 23:22 12 8 3 1 1 1 2 5-9 55.6 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Rasheer Fleming 19:11 8 2 0 1 1 0 5 3-6 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Isaiah Livers 9:49 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Khaman Maluach 16:24 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 7.0
Royce O'Neale DNP - Inactive
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: MIL @ PHX
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** MIL 100 - PHX 113 (PHX by 13, total 213) **Confidence:** 95% **MIL** 21-30 (#12) | Net: -4.0 | Off: 111.2 | Def: 115.3 | Rest: 1d rest **PHX** 31-22 (#7) | Net: 2.2 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 110.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.3 **Injuries:** MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Day-To-Day), Kevin Porter Jr. (Day-To-Day) (impact: -6.5 pts) PHX: Grayson Allen (Day-To-Day), Dillon Brooks (Out), Amir Coffey (Out), Royce O'Neale (Day-To-Day), Mark Williams (Out) (impact: -8.2 pts) **Key Players:** MIL: Ryan Rollins 17.5p/3.7r/7.5a | Myles Turner 14.2p/6.9r/1.9a | Kyle Kuzma 14.1p/4.2r/2.9a PHX: Devin Booker 37.5p/4.6r/6.6a | Jalen Green 25.6p/4.7r/3.9a | Grayson Allen 15.9p/2.4r/4.6a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 219.5 (moderate, EV $0.293/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 219.5 (moderate, EV $0.287/dollar) MONEYLINE PHX -590 (moderate, EV $0.111/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred