Indiana Pacers 119 @ 134 San Antonio Spurs

March 21, 2026 | Frost Bank Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

IND SAS Total
Predicted 102 124 226
Actual 119 134 253
Diff -17 -10 -27
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Ben Sheppard Pred: 8/3/2 | Actual: 9/3/1
Julian Champagnie Pred: 11/6/1 | Actual: 10/7/2
Lindy Waters III Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 6/1/2
Bismack Biyombo Pred: 1/1/0 | Actual: 4/1/0
Harrison Barnes Pred: 9/4/2 | Actual: 12/4/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Keldon Johnson Pred: 14pts | Actual: 24pts (off by 10)
De'Aaron Fox Pred: 24pts | Actual: 14pts (off by 10)

Indiana Pacers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Quenton Jackson SG 15:31 6 4 2 0 0 1 0 2-5 40.0 1-2 50.0 1-1 100.0 1.0
Jarace Walker SF 34:30 21 4 4 1 0 1 0 8-10 80.0 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Andrew Nembhard PG 27:46 25 1 7 1 0 1 2 8-13 61.5 2-4 50.0 7-9 77.8 -16.0
Aaron Nesmith PF 24:49 5 2 0 0 0 0 5 2-7 28.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Pascal Siakam C 29:29 14 2 5 1 0 1 0 6-14 42.9 0-2 0.0 2-3 66.7 -21.0
Kobe Brown 13:18 9 0 1 0 0 0 1 3-5 60.0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Johnny Furphy DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Haliburton DNP - Inactive
Jay Huff 18:18 6 2 4 0 1 1 3 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Kam Jones DNP - Coach's Decision
T.J. McConnell 16:39 4 2 8 1 0 0 1 2-8 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Taelon Peter DNP - Inactive
Micah Potter 19:31 9 2 2 1 1 0 0 3-5 60.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 3.0
Ben Sheppard 21:10 9 3 1 0 0 0 2 3-4 75.0 1-1 100.0 2-3 66.7 2.0
Ethan Thompson DNP - Inactive
Obi Toppin 18:59 11 4 4 0 0 4 0 5-10 50.0 0-5 0.0 1-1 100.0 -10.0
Ivica Zubac DNP - Inactive

San Antonio Spurs

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Dylan Harper SG 28:01 24 4 3 0 0 0 4 9-13 69.2 1-4 25.0 5-5 100.0 21.0
Julian Champagnie SF 26:54 10 7 2 1 0 1 4 4-10 40.0 0-5 0.0 2-2 100.0 17.0
De'Aaron Fox PG 26:06 14 3 7 1 0 3 1 6-16 37.5 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Harrison Barnes PF 22:34 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 21.0
Victor Wembanyama C 26:08 20 8 6 1 5 2 2 8-18 44.4 1-4 25.0 3-3 100.0 14.0
Bismack Biyombo 4:08 4 1 0 0 0 1 2 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Carter Bryant 20:59 5 9 1 0 0 2 1 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Stephon Castle DNP - Inactive
Harrison Ingram DNP - Inactive
Keldon Johnson 25:17 24 4 4 0 0 0 2 10-12 83.3 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 11.0
David Jones Garcia DNP - Inactive
Luke Kornet 21:31 9 8 4 0 1 0 2 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 2.0
Jordan McLaughlin 17:43 6 0 3 2 0 1 0 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 4.0
Emanuel Miller DNP - Inactive
Kelly Olynyk 4:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -9.0
Devin Vassell DNP - Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III 16:31 6 1 2 0 0 0 1 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: IND @ SAS
Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** IND 119 - SAS 134 (Winner: SAS ✓) **Prediction:** IND 102 - SAS 124 Score error: 17/10 | Total: pred 226, actual 253 (+27) **Standout Players:** De'Aaron Fox (SAS): 14p actual vs 24.1p pred (+10.1) Keldon Johnson (SAS): 24p actual vs 13.6p pred (-10.4) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD SAS -18.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD SAS -18.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: IND @ SAS
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** IND 102 - SAS 123 (SAS by 21, total 225) **Confidence:** 97% **IND** 13-40 (#15) | Net: -7.6 | Off: 106.9 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 2d rest **SAS** 36-16 (#2) | Net: 5.3 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.2 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.8 **Injuries:** IND: Johnny Furphy (Day-To-Day), Tyrese Haliburton (Out), Quenton Jackson (Day-To-Day), T.J. McConnell (Day-To-Day), Andrew Nembhard (Out), Aaron Nesmith (Day-To-Day), Micah Potter (Out), Ben Sheppard (Day-To-Day), Pascal Siakam (Out), Obi Toppin (Day-To-Day), Ivica Zubac (Out) (impact: -9.3 pts) SAS: Stephon Castle (Day-To-Day), David Jones Garcia (Out) (impact: -0.9 pts) **Key Players:** IND: Jarace Walker 14.9p/6.0r/2.7a | Aaron Nesmith 14.3p/3.0r/2.1a | Obi Toppin 10.1p/4.4r/1.7a SAS: Victor Wembanyama 26.7p/12.5r/2.9a | De'Aaron Fox 23.2p/4.9r/5.9a | Stephon Castle 16.7p/5.6r/7.8a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) SPREAD SAS -18.5 (slight, EV $0.079/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred