Miami Heat 122 @ 123 Houston Rockets

March 21, 2026 | Toyota Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

MIA HOU Total
Predicted 110 115 225
Actual 122 123 245
Diff -12 -8 -20
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Aaron Holiday Pred: 6/1/1 | Actual: 8/0/2
Dorian Finney-Smith Pred: 3/3/1 | Actual: 1/1/3
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Simone Fontecchio Pred: 8pts | Actual: 21pts (off by 13)
Kel'el Ware Pred: 11pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)

Miami Heat

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Tyler Herro SG 38:32 25 6 4 1 0 0 0 10-22 45.5 2-9 22.2 3-3 100.0 12.0
Pelle Larsson SF 31:29 19 5 3 0 0 2 5 7-12 58.3 2-3 66.7 3-5 60.0 2.0
Davion Mitchell PG 37:01 15 1 9 2 0 2 2 6-15 40.0 3-10 30.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Simone Fontecchio PF 37:49 21 3 3 1 0 0 1 8-12 66.7 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 17.0
Bam Adebayo C 45:01 32 21 4 2 0 1 4 12-21 57.1 2-4 50.0 6-8 75.0 5.0
Myron Gardner 20:10 8 2 3 0 0 2 5 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Vladislav Goldin DNP - Inactive
Kasparas Jakučionis 14:31 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. DNP - Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović 3:42 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-3 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Norman Powell DNP - Coach's Decision
Terry Rozier DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith 7:06 2 0 2 0 1 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Kel'el Ware 4:38 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Andrew Wiggins DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young DNP - Inactive

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Reed Sheppard SG 36:37 23 2 14 4 0 0 3 8-12 66.7 5-8 62.5 2-2 100.0 17.0
Jabari Smith Jr. SF 39:53 13 4 4 0 2 1 2 4-13 30.8 2-8 25.0 3-4 75.0 -4.0
Amen Thompson PG 37:56 24 18 4 0 1 3 1 10-17 58.8 1-1 100.0 3-3 100.0 2.0
Kevin Durant PF 36:56 27 3 3 0 0 3 0 9-17 52.9 5-9 55.6 4-4 100.0 -11.0
Alperen Sengun C 32:31 19 12 3 0 0 3 4 9-13 69.2 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -4.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela DNP - Coach's Decision
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Coach's Decision
JD Davison DNP - Inactive
Tari Eason 19:44 7 3 0 0 0 3 1 2-7 28.6 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -9.0
Dorian Finney-Smith 13:56 1 1 3 0 0 0 2 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 9.0
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 13:18 8 0 2 1 0 0 1 3-4 75.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 12.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 2:38 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -3.0
Jae'Sean Tate 6:28 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: MIA @ HOU
Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM
**Grade: B** β€” Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** MIA 122 - HOU 123 (Winner: HOU βœ“) **Prediction:** MIA 110 - HOU 115 Score error: 12/8 | Total: pred 225, actual 245 (+20) **Standout Players:** Simone Fontecchio (MIA): 21p actual vs 7.9p pred (-13.1) Kel'el Ware (MIA): 0p actual vs 11.1p pred (+11.1) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ MONEYLINE HOU -126 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE HOU -135 β€” WON βœ— TOTAL UNDER 229.5 β€” LOST βœ— TOTAL UNDER 229.5 β€” LOST βœ— SPREAD HOU -2.0 β€” LOST βœ— SPREAD HOU -1.5 β€” LOST
General Slate Analysis: MIA @ HOU
Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM
**Prediction:** MIA 109 - HOU 114 (HOU by 5, total 223) **Confidence:** 90% **MIA** 28-27 (#8) | Net: 2.1 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest **HOU** 32-19 (#4) | Net: 5.1 | Off: 114.4 | Def: 109.3 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** MIA: Simone Fontecchio (Day-To-Day), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Out), Pelle Larsson (Day-To-Day), Terry Rozier (Out), Andrew Wiggins (Out) (impact: -5.2 pts) HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Jae'Sean Tate (Day-To-Day), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) **Key Players:** MIA: Bam Adebayo 27.2p/11.2r/2.1a | Tyler Herro 20.1p/4.7r/4.4a | Norman Powell 15.8p/2.8r/2.1a HOU: Kevin Durant 25.2p/5.2r/5.1a | Amen Thompson 20.0p/8.7r/5.0a | Alperen Sengun 15.9p/7.8r/4.5a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE HOU -126 (strong, EV $0.616/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -135 (strong, EV $0.568/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 229.5 (moderate, EV $0.265/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 β€” off by +17. Depleted - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred