CLE @ NOP - NBA Local

Grade: C Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

	CLE	NOP	Total
Predicted	122	117	239
Actual	111	106	217
Diff	+11	+11	+22

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Dean Wade Pred: 7/5/1 | Actual: 7/5/3

Keon Ellis Pred: 10/2/2 | Actual: 7/2/1

Herbert Jones Pred: 9/4/3 | Actual: 12/3/3

Saddiq Bey Pred: 16/4/3 | Actual: 19/5/4

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Dennis Schröder Pred: 11pts | Actual: 1pts (off by 10)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Donovan Mitchell	SG	39:00	27	7	3	1	0	1	1	9-23	39.1	3-8	37.5	6-7	85.7	-3.0
Sam Merrill	SF	32:05	15	10	2	0	0	1	2	5-9	55.6	3-7	42.9	2-2	100.0	5.0
James Harden	PG	36:16	20	6	10	1	1	2	2	8-17	47.1	4-9	44.4	0-0	0.0	14.0
Dean Wade	PF	23:17	7	5	3	2	0	1	1	3-6	50.0	1-4	25.0	0-0	0.0	11.0
Evan Mobley	C	30:26	18	8	3	1	2	2	3	8-10	80.0	0-1	0.0	2-5	40.0	0.0
Jarrett Allen	DNP - Inactive
Thomas Bryant		14:44	11	8	1	0	1	1	2	5-7	71.4	0-1	0.0	1-2	50.0	-6.0
Keon Ellis		22:43	7	2	1	1	0	1	3	2-6	33.3	0-3	0.0	3-4	75.0	13.0
Tristan Enaruna	DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Proctor	DNP - Inactive
Dennis Schröder		13:22	1	1	1	0	0	3	0	0-4	0.0	0-2	0.0	1-2	50.0	-4.0
Max Strus		24:14	5	8	2	0	0	1	2	2-5	40.0	1-4	25.0	0-0	0.0	-6.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin		3:53	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	1.0
Jaylon Tyson	DNP - Inactive

New Orleans Pelicans

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Trey Murphy III	SG	40:31	10	6	0	1	2	1	2	3-10	30.0	2-8	25.0	2-2	100.0	-6.0
Saddiq Bey	SF	36:23	19	5	4	0	0	1	4	6-14	42.9	4-8	50.0	3-3	100.0	9.0
Dejounte Murray	PG	29:58	12	3	9	1	0	2	0	4-13	30.8	1-6	16.7	3-3	100.0	-2.0
Zion Williamson	PF	32:17	25	6	4	1	0	1	3	10-14	71.4	0-0	0.0	5-9	55.6	-9.0
Herbert Jones	C	31:19	12	3	3	1	1	0	5	4-12	33.3	4-11	36.4	0-0	0.0	-7.0
Trey Alexander	DNP - Inactive
Hunter Dickinson	DNP - Inactive
Jeremiah Fears		18:02	7	3	3	0	0	1	0	3-11	27.3	1-5	20.0	0-0	0.0	-3.0
Jordan Hawkins	DNP - Coach's Decision
DeAndre Jordan	DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney	DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković		12:10	6	1	0	2	1	0	2	3-4	75.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-11.0
Bryce McGowens	DNP - Inactive
Yves Missi		24:11	6	10	3	1	3	1	2	3-7	42.9	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	4.0
Micah Peavy	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jordan Poole	DNP - Coach's Decision
Derik Queen		15:09	9	3	4	3	0	2	1	3-5	60.0	0-1	0.0	3-3	100.0	0.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: CLE @ NOP

Mar 21, 2026 at 11:29 PM

**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least.
**Result:** CLE 111 - NOP 106 (Winner: CLE ✓)
**Prediction:** CLE 122 - NOP 117
Score error: 11/11 | Total: pred 239, actual 217 (-22)

**Standout Players:**
  Dennis Schröder (CLE): 1p actual vs 11.2p pred (+10.2)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -196 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE CLE -198 — WON
  ✗ TOTAL OVER 235.5 — LOST

General Slate Analysis: CLE @ NOP

Mar 21, 2026 at 09:10 AM

**Prediction:** CLE 122 - NOP 117 (CLE by 5, total 239)
**Confidence:** 91%

**CLE** 33-21 (#4) | Net: 3.5 | Off: 115.0 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest
**NOP** 15-40 (#14) | Net: -5.5 | Off: 110.7 | Def: 116.2 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 103.1

**Injuries:**
  CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Donovan Mitchell (Day-To-Day), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Tyrese Proctor (Out), Jaylon Tyson (Day-To-Day) (impact: -4.3 pts)
  NOP: Bryce McGowens (Out) (impact: -1.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  CLE: James Harden 30.2p/5.4r/10.1a | Donovan Mitchell 26.8p/3.6r/5.8a | Evan Mobley 26.1p/12.8r/3.6a
  NOP: Zion Williamson 21.6p/5.5r/2.2a | Trey Murphy III 19.3p/5.5r/4.6a | Dejounte Murray 17.7p/4.3r/5.0a

**Value Bets:**
  MONEYLINE CLE -196 (strong, EV $0.368/dollar)
  MONEYLINE CLE -198 (strong, EV $0.364/dollar)
  TOTAL OVER 235.5 (slight, EV $0.103/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Cleveland Cavaliers 111 @ 106 New Orleans Pelicans