CLE @ CHI - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	CLE	CHI	Total
Predicted	124	117	241
Actual	115	110	225
Diff	+9	+7	+16

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Patrick Williams Pred: 7/2/1 | Actual: 6/1/1

Sam Merrill Pred: 12/3/3 | Actual: 13/1/3

Leonard Miller Pred: 8/5/1 | Actual: 10/4/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Max Strus Pred: 17pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 17)

Josh Giddey Pred: 22pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 13)

Collin Sexton Pred: 20pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 11)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Sam Merrill	SG	31:13	13	1	3	1	2	0	3	5-12	41.7	3-8	37.5	0-0	0.0	1.0
Jaylon Tyson	SF	23:10	18	11	3	1	1	2	0	8-14	57.1	2-4	50.0	0-2	0.0	1.0
James Harden	PG	36:30	36	7	9	2	1	5	5	10-23	43.5	7-13	53.8	9-11	81.8	9.0
Dean Wade	PF	18:51	0	7	1	0	0	0	0	0-3	0.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	2.0
Evan Mobley	C	36:24	26	14	3	1	0	0	1	12-19	63.2	0-1	0.0	2-6	33.3	11.0
Jarrett Allen	DNP - Inactive
Thomas Bryant		15:56	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	2-5	40.0	1-2	50.0	0-2	0.0	4.0
Keon Ellis		26:52	8	2	3	3	1	4	4	2-6	33.3	0-3	0.0	4-4	100.0	-6.0
Tristan Enaruna	DNP - Coach's Decision
Donovan Mitchell	DNP - Inactive
Larry Nance Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Tyrese Proctor	DNP - Inactive
Dennis Schröder		16:00	9	2	3	1	0	2	3	1-4	25.0	1-3	33.3	6-6	100.0	7.0
Max Strus		23:58	0	6	1	2	0	1	1	0-5	0.0	0-5	0.0	0-0	0.0	-7.0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin		11:05	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	3.0

Chicago Bulls

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Tre Jones	SG	31:53	20	4	3	3	0	2	3	6-12	50.0	2-4	50.0	6-8	75.0	4.0
Collin Sexton	SF	18:42	9	4	2	0	0	2	3	3-11	27.3	1-5	20.0	2-2	100.0	-12.0
Josh Giddey	PG	36:40	9	6	19	1	2	5	5	4-11	36.4	1-5	20.0	0-0	0.0	-5.0
Matas Buzelis	PF	32:59	13	5	0	3	3	2	0	5-13	38.5	2-9	22.2	1-2	50.0	-20.0
Nick Richards	C	29:58	16	8	0	0	0	1	3	7-11	63.6	1-2	50.0	1-4	25.0	11.0
Zach Collins	DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham		21:08	17	4	1	1	0	0	5	7-14	50.0	3-7	42.9	0-0	0.0	-9.0
Noa Essengue	DNP - Inactive
Jaden Ivey	DNP - Inactive
Yuki Kawamura	DNP - Inactive
Mac McClung	DNP - Inactive
Leonard Miller		19:11	10	4	0	0	0	2	1	4-9	44.4	1-3	33.3	1-1	100.0	-2.0
Isaac Okoro	DNP - Coach's Decision
Lachlan Olbrich	DNP - Coach's Decision
Anfernee Simons	DNP - Inactive
Jalen Smith	DNP - Coach's Decision
Patrick Williams		20:10	6	1	1	1	0	2	4	2-5	40.0	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	5.0
Guerschon Yabusele		29:17	10	11	1	2	2	0	0	4-8	50.0	2-5	40.0	0-0	0.0	3.0

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General Post-Game Review: CLE @ CHI

Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** CLE 115 - CHI 110 (Winner: CLE ✓)
**Prediction:** CLE 124 - CHI 117
Score error: 9/7 | Total: pred 241, actual 225 (-16)

**Standout Players:**
  Collin Sexton (CHI): 9p actual vs 20.2p pred (+11.2)
  Max Strus (CLE): 0p actual vs 17.1p pred (+17.1)
  Josh Giddey (CHI): 9p actual vs 22.2p pred (+13.2)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ SPREAD CHI 13.5 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD CHI 13.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: CLE @ CHI

Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM

**Prediction:** CLE 124 - CHI 116 (CLE by 7, total 240)
**Confidence:** 92%

**CLE** 33-21 (#4) | Net: 3.5 | Off: 115.0 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest
**CHI** 24-30 (#11) | Net: -3.4 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 115.7 | Rest: B2B
Projected pace: 103.7

**Injuries:**
  CLE: Jarrett Allen (Out), Craig Porter Jr. (Out), Tyrese Proctor (Out) (impact: -3.3 pts)
  CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Jaden Ivey (Out), Isaac Okoro (Out), Anfernee Simons (Out) (impact: -4.2 pts)

**Key Players:**
  CLE: Donovan Mitchell 27.2p/3.7r/6.4a | James Harden 26.6p/5.2r/8.1a | Evan Mobley 25.3p/11.8r/3.9a
  CHI: Josh Giddey 20.2p/8.8r/10.9a | Matas Buzelis 19.1p/6.1r/1.5a | Collin Sexton 18.4p/2.0r/3.0a

**Value Bets:**
  SPREAD CHI 13.5 (moderate, EV $0.305/dollar)
  SPREAD CHI 13.5 (moderate, EV $0.284/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Cleveland Cavaliers 115 @ 110 Chicago Bulls