LAL @ MIA - NBA Local

Grade: F Prediction Recap

Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

	LAL	MIA	Total
Predicted	118	122	240
Actual	134	126	260
Diff	-16	-4	-20

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Jaxson Hayes Pred: 7/4/1 | Actual: 6/5/1

Kasparas Jakučionis Pred: 8/3/3 | Actual: 7/2/3

Norman Powell Pred: 19/3/2 | Actual: 20/2/3

Marcus Smart Pred: 11/3/3 | Actual: 13/2/4

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Luka Dončić Pred: 30pts | Actual: 60pts (off by 29)

Los Angeles Lakers

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Austin Reaves	SG	39:59	18	5	4	0	0	2	2	5-12	41.7	2-7	28.6	6-10	60.0	13.0
LeBron James	SF	37:52	19	15	10	0	0	3	2	8-12	66.7	0-0	0.0	3-5	60.0	4.0
Luka Dončić	PG	37:36	60	7	3	5	0	2	1	18-30	60.0	9-17	52.9	15-19	78.9	7.0
Marcus Smart	PF	27:31	13	2	4	2	0	2	2	2-6	33.3	1-4	25.0	8-9	88.9	15.0
Deandre Ayton	C	29:10	6	4	0	0	0	1	5	3-5	60.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	13.0
Kobe Bufkin	DNP - Coach's Decision
Rui Hachimura		17:33	7	1	0	1	0	1	3	3-6	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-5.0
Jaxson Hayes		18:48	6	5	1	0	2	0	0	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	2-2	100.0	-7.0
Bronny James	DNP - Coach's Decision
Luke Kennard		13:21	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0-1	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-5.0
Maxi Kleber	DNP - Inactive
Dalton Knecht	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jake LaRavia		18:08	5	6	1	0	1	0	5	2-3	66.7	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	5.0
Chris Mañon	DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Adou Thiero	DNP - Coach's Decision
Drew Timme	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jarred Vanderbilt	DNP - Coach's Decision

Miami Heat

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Tyler Herro	SG	32:43	21	8	5	0	0	4	3	8-19	42.1	4-10	40.0	1-1	100.0	-12.0
Pelle Larsson	SF	33:19	11	2	5	0	0	4	3	3-8	37.5	0-2	0.0	5-6	83.3	-16.0
Davion Mitchell	PG	32:22	16	3	6	1	1	1	1	7-10	70.0	2-5	40.0	0-0	0.0	-14.0
Simone Fontecchio	PF	19:24	7	3	2	0	0	1	2	3-6	50.0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	-9.0
Bam Adebayo	C	37:47	28	10	2	1	0	0	3	9-19	47.4	3-8	37.5	7-10	70.0	-12.0
Myron Gardner	DNP - Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin	DNP - Inactive
Kasparas Jakučionis		15:39	7	2	3	1	0	0	3	3-5	60.0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	3.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	DNP - Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson	DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović	DNP - Coach's Decision
Norman Powell		32:31	20	2	3	1	1	1	6	7-13	53.8	1-5	20.0	5-5	100.0	6.0
Terry Rozier	DNP - Inactive
Dru Smith		15:38	2	2	4	0	0	0	4	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Kel'el Ware		20:36	14	9	1	0	0	0	1	7-11	63.6	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	8.0
Andrew Wiggins	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young	DNP - Inactive

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General Post-Game Review: LAL @ MIA

Mar 20, 2026 at 07:38 AM

**Grade: F** — Missed this one.
**Result:** LAL 134 - MIA 126 (Winner: LAL ✗)
**Prediction:** LAL 118 - MIA 122
Score error: 16/4 | Total: pred 240, actual 260 (+20)

**Standout Players:**
  Luka Dončić (LAL): 60p actual vs 30.2p pred (-29.8)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ MONEYLINE MIA -134 — LOST
  ✗ MONEYLINE MIA -142 — LOST
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 241.5 — LOST

General Slate Analysis: LAL @ MIA

Mar 19, 2026 at 08:07 AM

**Prediction:** LAL 117 - MIA 121 (MIA by 4, total 238)
**Confidence:** 83%

**LAL** 32-20 (#5) | Net: 0.1 | Off: 115.1 | Def: 114.9 | Rest: B2B
**MIA** 28-27 (#8) | Net: 2.1 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 103.8

**Injuries:**
  LAL: Maxi Kleber (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.1 pts)
  MIA: Bam Adebayo (Day-To-Day), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Day-To-Day), Terry Rozier (Out), Andrew Wiggins (Out) (impact: -4.2 pts)

**Key Players:**
  LAL: Luka Dončić 32.0p/8.4r/9.2a | Austin Reaves 24.7p/4.1r/7.4a | LeBron James 19.4p/5.6r/5.7a
  MIA: Tyler Herro 23.9p/5.2r/4.9a | Bam Adebayo 18.6p/8.2r/2.6a | Norman Powell 18.1p/2.8r/2.3a

**Value Bets:**
  MONEYLINE MIA -134 (strong, EV $0.453/dollar)
  MONEYLINE MIA -142 (strong, EV $0.418/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 241.5 (slight, EV $0.122/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] 3PM PROPS CATASTROPHIC (Mar 6): 3/15 (20%) hit rate. Usage boost inflates 3PM predictions but shooting is high-variance 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] OVER BIAS EXTREME (Mar 6): 62/65 props were OVERs (95%). Usage adjustment inflates all averages upward, turning everythi
  - [model] TOTAL UNDER SYSTEMATIC MISS (Mar 6): Under bets went 2/7. Avg predicted total 218, avg actual 235 — off by +17. Depleted
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Los Angeles Lakers 134 @ 126 Miami Heat