Dallas Mavericks 99 @ 123 Milwaukee Bucks

March 31, 2026 | Fiserv Forum | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

DAL MIL Total
Predicted 116 109 226
Actual 99 123 222
Diff +17 -14 +4
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Dwight Powell Pred: 3/4/1 | Actual: 3/3/0
Gary Trent Jr. Pred: 13/1/2 | Actual: 13/3/1
Khris Middleton Pred: 10/4/3 | Actual: 8/5/2

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 26:23 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 1-12 8.3 1-9 11.1 0-0 0.0 -26.0
Cooper Flagg SF 31:45 19 10 3 3 1 3 3 6-19 31.6 0-3 0.0 7-8 87.5 -27.0
Ryan Nembhard PG 22:25 9 0 4 2 0 3 1 2-7 28.6 2-5 40.0 3-4 75.0 -2.0
Khris Middleton PF 22:25 8 5 2 0 0 1 3 3-11 27.3 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 -14.0
Daniel Gafford C 11:04 7 4 0 0 1 0 2 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 3-6 50.0 -15.0
Marvin Bagley III DNP - Coach's Decision
Moussa Cisse 22:17 8 13 0 3 2 1 4 4-7 57.1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson 16:15 8 2 3 1 0 0 2 3-8 37.5 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 3.0
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Naji Marshall DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Dwight Powell 14:39 3 3 0 1 0 0 1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -10.0
Klay Thompson DNP - Inactive
P.J. Washington DNP - Inactive
Brandon Williams 25:35 18 2 2 1 0 4 1 6-11 54.5 0-2 0.0 6-6 100.0 -22.0

Milwaukee Bucks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Gary Trent Jr. SG 22:39 13 3 1 0 0 0 0 4-10 40.0 4-9 44.4 1-2 50.0 14.0
Kyle Kuzma SF 23:11 20 6 3 3 1 2 1 9-17 52.9 0-6 0.0 2-3 66.7 17.0
Ryan Rollins PG 35:36 24 7 9 1 0 3 2 8-14 57.1 4-9 44.4 4-4 100.0 33.0
Jericho Sims PF 29:28 8 9 1 0 1 2 4 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 28.0
Myles Turner C 27:20 10 8 2 1 4 1 2 3-8 37.5 3-6 50.0 1-2 50.0 13.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Thanasis Antetokounmpo DNP - Inactive
Alex Antetokounmpo 2:48 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 -2.0
Ousmane Dieng 28:40 11 10 5 1 1 1 2 4-10 40.0 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 6.0
AJ Green 27:42 17 6 2 0 0 3 3 4-8 50.0 4-6 66.7 5-5 100.0 11.0
Gary Harris DNP - Inactive
Andre Jackson Jr. 4:43 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Pete Nance 15:57 11 6 3 1 2 2 3 4-7 57.1 2-5 40.0 1-1 100.0 4.0
Kevin Porter Jr. DNP - Inactive
Bobby Portis DNP - Inactive
Taurean Prince 21:56 6 2 2 0 0 2 2 2-10 20.0 2-9 22.2 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DAL @ MIL
Apr 01, 2026 at 06:40 AM
**Grade: F** — Missed this one. **Result:** DAL 99 - MIL 123 (Winner: MIL ✗) **Prediction:** DAL 116 - MIL 109 Score error: 17/14 | Total: pred 226, actual 222 (-4) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ MONEYLINE DAL -115 — LOST ✗ MONEYLINE DAL -116 — LOST ✓ TOTAL UNDER 228.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 228.5 — WON ✗ SPREAD DAL -1.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DAL -1.0 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: DAL @ MIL
Mar 31, 2026 at 06:52 AM
**Prediction:** DAL 113 - MIL 107 (DAL by 6, total 220) **Confidence:** 91% **DAL** 23-50 (#13) | Net: -5.0 | Off: 108.5 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: B2B **MIL** 29-43 (#11) | Net: -6.0 | Off: 110.4 | Def: 116.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** DAL: Marvin Bagley III (Day-To-Day), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Naji Marshall (Day-To-Day), Caleb Martin (Out), P.J. Washington (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.6 pts) MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Out), Thanasis Antetokounmpo (Out), Gary Harris (Out), Kyle Kuzma (Out), Kevin Porter Jr. (Out), Bobby Portis (Out), Ryan Rollins (Day-To-Day) (impact: -9.7 pts) **Key Players:** DAL: Cooper Flagg 20.4p/6.3r/3.9a | Brandon Williams 13.0p/2.7r/3.9a | P.J. Washington 12.4p/5.8r/0.8a MIL: Ryan Rollins 19.8p/4.4r/7.2a | Myles Turner 14.0p/5.8r/1.3a | Cam Thomas 13.9p/1.6r/2.9a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE DAL -115 (strong, EV $0.701/dollar) MONEYLINE DAL -116 (strong, EV $0.695/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 228.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred