Dallas Mavericks 107 @ 112 Phoenix Suns

April 08, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

DAL PHX Total
Predicted 108 119 227
Actual 107 112 219
Diff +1 +7 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jordan Goodwin Pred: 9/4/2 | Actual: 9/3/1
Rasheer Fleming Pred: 4/2/0 | Actual: 3/0/0
Khris Middleton Pred: 7/3/2 | Actual: 4/3/2
Amir Coffey Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Jalen Green Pred: 16pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 16)
Dillon Brooks Pred: 16pts | Actual: 28pts (off by 11)
Cooper Flagg Pred: 22pts | Actual: 11pts (off by 11)

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 32:50 18 2 2 1 1 0 0 5-11 45.5 4-9 44.4 4-4 100.0 4.0
Cooper Flagg SF 31:53 11 11 6 1 1 2 0 4-18 22.2 0-4 0.0 3-3 100.0 10.0
Ryan Nembhard PG 31:48 9 5 7 0 0 0 3 4-9 44.4 0-1 0.0 1-1 100.0 3.0
Khris Middleton PF 17:35 4 3 2 0 0 3 1 0-5 0.0 0-2 0.0 4-4 100.0 -9.0
Marvin Bagley III C 26:17 20 8 2 0 1 2 2 8-11 72.7 3-6 50.0 1-2 50.0 -6.0
Moussa Cisse 21:43 11 9 0 0 1 1 1 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 1.0
Daniel Gafford DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson 17:07 4 1 3 1 0 0 0 1-11 9.1 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 -11.0
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Naji Marshall DNP - Coach's Decision
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
John Poulakidas 29:20 23 1 1 0 1 0 4 8-12 66.7 5-8 62.5 2-2 100.0 8.0
Dwight Powell 16:07 4 3 3 1 0 0 3 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Tyler Smith 15:20 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Klay Thompson DNP - Inactive
P.J. Washington DNP - Coach's Decision
Brandon Williams DNP - Inactive

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jalen Green SG 3:50 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Jordan Goodwin SF 13:05 9 3 1 1 0 0 0 3-7 42.9 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
Devin Booker PG 37:00 37 5 9 0 0 4 2 13-27 48.1 2-6 33.3 9-9 100.0 11.0
Dillon Brooks PF 33:23 28 5 3 1 0 0 1 11-22 50.0 4-5 80.0 2-4 50.0 5.0
Khaman Maluach C 30:12 4 14 0 0 3 0 2 2-5 40.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Grayson Allen DNP - Inactive
Jamaree Bouyea 4:05 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Koby Brea DNP - Coach's Decision
Amir Coffey 5:53 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Ryan Dunn 24:26 0 6 2 1 1 1 0 0-3 0.0 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Rasheer Fleming 13:30 3 0 0 1 1 1 1 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Collin Gillespie 33:50 13 7 2 1 0 2 3 5-12 41.7 1-7 14.3 2-2 100.0 4.0
Haywood Highsmith DNP - Inactive
CJ Huntley DNP - Coach's Decision
Oso Ighodaro 17:34 4 1 0 0 2 1 5 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Royce O'Neale 23:10 14 4 1 0 1 0 1 5-7 71.4 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Mark Williams DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Slate Analysis: DAL @ PHX
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:18 AM
**Prediction:** DAL 108 - PHX 119 (PHX by 10, total 227) **Confidence:** 94% **DAL** 25-54 (#13) | Net: -5.4 | Off: 108.1 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: B2B **PHX** 43-36 (#7) | Net: 1.4 | Off: 112.1 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: B2B Projected pace: 102.3 **Injuries:** DAL: Daniel Gafford (Day-To-Day), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Naji Marshall (Day-To-Day), Caleb Martin (Out), P.J. Washington (Day-To-Day), Brandon Williams (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.6 pts) PHX: Haywood Highsmith (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) **Key Players:** DAL: Cooper Flagg 22.2p/6.2r/3.5a | Naji Marshall 12.4p/3.3r/2.2a | Brandon Williams 10.0p/2.1r/3.8a PHX: Devin Booker 26.5p/3.1r/6.5a | Jalen Green 16.5p/2.6r/3.4a | Dillon Brooks 16.2p/2.9r/1.8a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 231.5 (slight, EV $0.145/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (slight, EV $0.132/dollar) MONEYLINE PHX -575 (moderate, EV $0.103/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on