MEM @ DEN - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	MEM	DEN	Total
Predicted	106	131	237
Actual	119	136	255
Diff	-13	-5	-18

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Curtis Jones Pred: 1/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/0

Jalen Pickett Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 5/0/1

Tim Hardaway Jr. Pred: 15/2/1 | Actual: 13/4/2

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Nikola Jokić Pred: 32pts | Actual: 14pts (off by 17)

Memphis Grizzlies

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Cedric Coward	SG	21:54	27	6	2	1	0	0	2	10-17	58.8	3-7	42.9	4-5	80.0	14.0
Jahmai Mashack	SF	32:49	9	3	7	0	0	1	3	4-12	33.3	1-4	25.0	0-2	0.0	-30.0
Walter Clayton Jr.	PG	21:54	15	2	3	0	0	1	0	5-10	50.0	2-5	40.0	3-3	100.0	14.0
Toby Okani	PF	32:49	15	0	2	1	0	0	1	5-10	50.0	4-7	57.1	1-4	25.0	-30.0
Taylor Hendricks	C	21:54	16	6	1	1	1	1	3	6-8	75.0	2-3	66.7	2-2	100.0	14.0
Santi Aldama	DNP - Inactive
Adama Bal		38:49	12	6	5	2	0	1	1	3-10	30.0	2-6	33.3	4-4	100.0	-18.0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	DNP - Inactive
Brandon Clarke	DNP - Inactive
Zach Edey	DNP - Inactive
Taj Gibson		4:57	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	1.0
GG Jackson	DNP - Coach's Decision
Ty Jerome	DNP - Inactive
Ja Morant	DNP - Inactive
Scotty Pippen Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Olivier-Maxence Prosper	DNP - Coach's Decision
Rayan Rupert	DNP - Inactive
Javon Small	DNP - Inactive
Cam Spencer	DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaylen Wells	DNP - Inactive
Dariq Whitehead		28:16	7	7	3	0	0	0	5	2-10	20.0	2-10	20.0	1-2	50.0	-30.0
Lucas Williamson		36:38	16	6	1	0	0	2	4	6-12	50.0	3-8	37.5	1-1	100.0	-20.0

Denver Nuggets

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Christian Braun	SG	26:35	14	2	1	1	0	1	0	7-10	70.0	0-2	0.0	0-1	0.0	21.0
Cameron Johnson	SF	29:43	18	3	2	1	0	1	1	8-12	66.7	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	7.0
Jamal Murray	PG	34:47	26	7	5	0	0	3	0	8-17	47.1	5-10	50.0	5-5	100.0	18.0
Aaron Gordon	PF	22:16	6	2	6	0	1	0	3	2-6	33.3	0-2	0.0	2-2	100.0	17.0
Nikola Jokić	C	31:02	14	16	10	2	0	2	0	5-8	62.5	0-1	0.0	4-5	80.0	24.0
Bruce Brown		26:06	13	7	2	2	1	1	4	5-7	71.4	0-1	0.0	3-5	60.0	4.0
Tim Hardaway Jr.		19:28	13	4	2	0	0	0	1	5-10	50.0	3-8	37.5	0-0	0.0	13.0
DaRon Holmes II		3:14	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Curtis Jones		3:14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Tyus Jones	DNP - Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones	DNP - Inactive
Zeke Nnaji		6:55	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0-1	0.0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	-9.0
Jalen Pickett		5:56	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	2-3	66.7	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-2.0
David Roddy	DNP - Inactive
KJ Simpson		3:14	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Julian Strawther		14:45	10	2	1	0	1	0	3	4-6	66.7	2-3	66.7	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Jonas Valančiūnas		12:45	14	4	0	0	2	3	5	6-6	100.0	0-0	0.0	2-3	66.7	0.0
Peyton Watson	DNP - Inactive

Add Analysis Entry

General Slate Analysis: MEM @ DEN

Apr 08, 2026 at 09:18 AM

**Prediction:** MEM 106 - DEN 131 (DEN by 25, total 237)
**Confidence:** 97%

**MEM** 25-54 (#12) | Net: -4.8 | Off: 110.1 | Def: 115.0 | Rest: 1d rest
**DEN** 51-28 (#3) | Net: 4.6 | Off: 119.2 | Def: 114.5 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 102.5

**Injuries:**
  MEM: Santi Aldama (Out), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Out), Brandon Clarke (Out), Zach Edey (Out), GG Jackson (Out), Ty Jerome (Out), Jahmai Mashack (Out), Ja Morant (Out), Scotty Pippen Jr. (Out), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Day-To-Day), Javon Small (Out), Cam Spencer (Out), Jaylen Wells (Out) (impact: -9.6 pts)
  DEN: Spencer Jones (Out), Peyton Watson (Out) (impact: -3.6 pts)

**Key Players:**
  MEM: Olivier-Maxence Prosper 20.5p/4.8r/1.1a | Cedric Coward 17.6p/5.9r/3.1a | Walter Clayton Jr. 11.4p/2.4r/6.9a
  DEN: Nikola Jokić 31.7p/16.2r/11.7a | Jamal Murray 29.4p/4.9r/9.9a | Cameron Johnson 16.3p/5.8r/2.8a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 244.5 (moderate, EV $0.312/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 244.5 (moderate, EV $0.285/dollar)
  SPREAD DEN -22.5 (slight, EV $0.107/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 

Memphis Grizzlies 119 @ 136 Denver Nuggets