Houston Rockets 119 @ 105 Phoenix Suns

April 07, 2026 | Mortgage Matchup Center | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

HOU PHX Total
Predicted 115 107 222
Actual 119 105 224
Diff -4 +2 -2
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Koby Brea Pred: 2/0/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Jordan Goodwin Pred: 8/4/2 | Actual: 11/4/2
Oso Ighodaro Pred: 7/6/3 | Actual: 8/5/1
Josh Okogie Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 1/3/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Mark Williams Pred: 9pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 10)
Collin Gillespie Pred: 10pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 10)

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 35:37 22 11 8 3 1 4 4 10-16 62.5 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 2.0
Kevin Durant SF 35:40 24 4 3 0 0 2 3 8-20 40.0 5-9 55.6 3-3 100.0 -7.0
Reed Sheppard PG 21:11 12 5 1 1 0 1 3 5-9 55.6 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 0.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 38:44 20 6 1 0 1 0 4 6-18 33.3 5-13 38.5 3-3 100.0 11.0
Alperen Sengun C 28:02 12 14 6 0 0 6 4 5-15 33.3 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 4.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 9:53 2 3 0 0 1 1 3 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Coach's Decision
JD Davison DNP - Coach's Decision
Tari Eason 31:04 12 7 2 3 0 1 3 5-7 71.4 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 29.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 21:19 12 0 0 1 0 1 3 4-6 66.7 2-4 50.0 2-2 100.0 27.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Coach's Decision
Josh Okogie 11:52 1 3 2 0 0 0 1 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 -5.0
Jae'Sean Tate 6:34 2 2 3 0 0 1 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 11.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive

Phoenix Suns

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jalen Green SG 31:31 15 3 1 0 4 3 3 5-14 35.7 0-4 0.0 5-7 71.4 -5.0
Jordan Goodwin SF 25:01 11 4 2 2 0 1 2 4-7 57.1 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Devin Booker PG 38:32 31 4 8 0 0 3 1 7-16 43.8 2-6 33.3 15-16 93.8 2.0
Dillon Brooks PF 32:53 10 3 1 1 0 2 3 3-12 25.0 1-7 14.3 3-4 75.0 4.0
Mark Williams C 27:58 19 8 0 3 0 1 4 7-9 77.8 0-0 0.0 5-6 83.3 10.0
Grayson Allen 25:39 8 4 2 1 1 4 3 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 6-6 100.0 -18.0
Jamaree Bouyea 1:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Koby Brea 1:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Amir Coffey DNP - Coach's Decision
Ryan Dunn 1:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Rasheer Fleming 1:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Collin Gillespie 17:02 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Oso Ighodaro 18:57 8 5 1 1 1 2 3 4-6 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -22.0
Isaiah Livers DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach 1:04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Royce O'Neale 17:04 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -21.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: HOU @ PHX
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:07 AM
**Grade: S** — Nailed it. **Result:** HOU 119 - PHX 105 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** HOU 115 - PHX 107 Score error: 4/2 | Total: pred 222, actual 224 (+2) **Standout Players:** Mark Williams (PHX): 19p actual vs 8.6p pred (-10.4) Collin Gillespie (PHX): 0p actual vs 10.0p pred (+10.0) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -112 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -118 — WON ✓ SPREAD HOU -1.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD HOU -1.0 — WON
General Slate Analysis: HOU @ PHX
Apr 07, 2026 at 08:53 PM
**Prediction:** HOU 115 - PHX 107 (HOU by 8, total 222) **Confidence:** 92% **HOU** 43-29 (#6) | Net: 3.8 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest **PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 99.6 **Injuries:** HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) PHX: Dillon Brooks (Day-To-Day) (impact: -1.4 pts) **Key Players:** HOU: Kevin Durant 25.5p/6.3r/6.2a | Alperen Sengun 19.7p/8.0r/5.3a | Amen Thompson 19.7p/6.3r/5.8a PHX: Devin Booker 24.3p/2.7r/5.4a | Jalen Green 18.4p/3.6r/3.2a | Dillon Brooks 14.1p/2.8r/1.7a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE HOU -112 (strong, EV $0.751/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -118 (strong, EV $0.709/dollar) SPREAD HOU -1.5 (moderate, EV $0.390/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred