Dallas Mavericks 103 @ 116 Los Angeles Clippers

April 07, 2026 | Intuit Dome | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

DAL LAC Total
Predicted 109 119 228
Actual 103 116 219
Diff +6 +3 +9
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
TyTy Washington Jr. Pred: 1/0/1 | Actual: 0/1/0
AJ Johnson Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 1/2/0
Klay Thompson Pred: 13/2/2 | Actual: 11/3/2
Cooper Flagg Pred: 24/7/4 | Actual: 25/9/2
Cam Christie Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Naji Marshall Pred: 17pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 10)

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 28:55 12 5 1 1 0 1 0 1-8 12.5 0-5 0.0 10-10 100.0 -12.0
Cooper Flagg SF 33:53 25 9 2 0 1 1 2 9-25 36.0 1-3 33.3 6-6 100.0 -14.0
Naji Marshall PG 19:55 6 2 0 3 0 1 3 3-10 30.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Khris Middleton PF 19:35 2 2 3 0 0 2 0 1-5 20.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -18.0
Dwight Powell C 19:27 4 8 1 0 0 1 4 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 4-4 100.0 -8.0
Marvin Bagley III 26:03 21 9 1 1 2 0 2 8-11 72.7 1-1 100.0 4-4 100.0 -8.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Daniel Gafford DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson 5:15 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -2.0
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Ryan Nembhard 24:34 12 6 7 2 0 1 4 6-12 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Klay Thompson 26:17 11 3 2 0 3 1 2 4-17 23.5 1-10 10.0 2-2 100.0 1.0
P.J. Washington DNP - Coach's Decision
Brandon Williams DNP - Inactive

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Kris Dunn SG 27:11 2 7 3 2 0 2 1 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 18.0
Kawhi Leonard SF 30:09 34 4 3 1 0 3 0 11-19 57.9 6-10 60.0 6-9 66.7 11.0
Darius Garland PG 28:23 22 1 4 1 1 2 4 9-18 50.0 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 22.0
Derrick Jones Jr. PF 23:29 11 10 2 0 1 0 3 4-10 40.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Brook Lopez C 25:16 9 11 3 0 4 1 3 4-8 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-1 0.0 10.0
Nicolas Batum DNP - Coach's Decision
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Christie 2:29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
John Collins 27:54 12 7 1 0 2 3 0 5-11 45.5 1-5 20.0 1-4 25.0 -5.0
Isaiah Jackson DNP - Inactive
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 27:03 9 6 3 1 0 3 1 1-8 12.5 0-2 0.0 7-8 87.5 -1.0
Jordan Miller 16:12 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -1.0
Kobe Sanders 24:26 11 5 2 1 1 0 2 4-8 50.0 3-7 42.9 0-0 0.0 13.0
TyTy Washington Jr. 2:29 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: DAL @ LAC
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:07 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** DAL 103 - LAC 116 (Winner: LAC ✓) **Prediction:** DAL 109 - LAC 119 Score error: 6/3 | Total: pred 228, actual 219 (-9) **Standout Players:** Naji Marshall (DAL): 6p actual vs 16.8p pred (+10.8) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — WON ✗ SPREAD DAL 12.5 — LOST ✗ SPREAD DAL 12.5 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -590 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -625 — WON
General Slate Analysis: DAL @ LAC
Apr 07, 2026 at 08:53 PM
**Prediction:** DAL 109 - LAC 119 (LAC by 9, total 228) **Confidence:** 94% **DAL** 23-50 (#13) | Net: -5.0 | Off: 108.5 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: 1d rest **LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.3 **Injuries:** DAL: Daniel Gafford (Day-To-Day), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out) (impact: -0.6 pts) LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Isaiah Jackson (Day-To-Day), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out) (impact: -1.3 pts) **Key Players:** DAL: Cooper Flagg 24.5p/7.1r/3.7a | Naji Marshall 16.8p/5.1r/3.3a | Brandon Williams 13.1p/2.1r/4.6a LAC: Kawhi Leonard 31.5p/7.3r/3.9a | Darius Garland 24.4p/2.4r/8.3a | John Collins 16.6p/5.5r/0.9a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (strong, EV $0.443/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (strong, EV $0.443/dollar) SPREAD DAL 12.5 (slight, EV $0.136/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred