Oklahoma City Thunder 123 @ 87 Los Angeles Lakers

April 07, 2026 | Crypto.com Arena | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

OKC LAL Total
Predicted 123 98 221
Actual 123 87 210
Diff 0 +11 +11
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Alex Caruso Pred: 7/2/2 | Actual: 6/1/2
Bronny James Pred: 4/0/1 | Actual: 4/2/2
Nikola Topić Pred: 2/2/2 | Actual: 0/1/3
Chris Mañon Pred: 0/1/0 | Actual: 2/2/1
Rui Hachimura Pred: 12/4/1 | Actual: 15/5/1

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ajay Mitchell SG 21:26 9 3 3 1 0 0 1 3-9 33.3 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 7.0
Luguentz Dort SF 22:36 8 1 2 4 0 1 1 3-6 50.0 2-5 40.0 0-0 0.0 28.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 28:02 25 1 8 2 0 3 2 10-15 66.7 2-2 100.0 3-3 100.0 32.0
Chet Holmgren PF 22:00 15 10 0 2 2 2 3 6-10 60.0 1-3 33.3 2-3 66.7 30.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 10:18 0 5 2 1 0 1 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Brooks Barnhizer 5:45 2 4 0 0 0 0 1 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Branden Carlson 7:28 8 2 1 0 0 0 1 3-4 75.0 1-2 50.0 1-2 50.0 -1.0
Alex Caruso 10:09 6 1 2 0 0 2 0 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 0.0
Isaiah Joe 18:14 18 2 0 0 0 1 1 6-9 66.7 6-9 66.7 0-0 0.0 31.0
Jared McCain 15:51 15 2 1 0 0 1 3 5-8 62.5 3-4 75.0 2-2 100.0 7.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić 9:31 0 1 3 1 0 0 1 0-4 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Cason Wallace 22:43 5 2 3 3 0 0 4 1-4 25.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 27.0
Aaron Wiggins 19:57 10 2 0 1 0 1 2 4-7 57.1 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Jaylin Williams 13:58 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 14.0
Jalen Williams DNP - Inactive
Kenrich Williams 12:00 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 1-7 14.3 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 5.0

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jake LaRavia SG 19:51 2 7 1 2 1 2 2 1-7 14.3 0-4 0.0 0-2 0.0 -19.0
Drew Timme SF 26:32 11 3 2 0 0 3 3 4-9 44.4 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 -26.0
Luke Kennard PG 23:10 10 2 9 1 0 0 0 4-7 57.1 0-2 0.0 2-3 66.7 -23.0
Rui Hachimura PF 25:34 15 5 1 0 1 2 1 7-10 70.0 1-1 100.0 0-3 0.0 -24.0
Deandre Ayton C 22:50 3 3 0 0 1 1 2 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 1-2 50.0 -26.0
Kobe Bufkin 18:19 9 3 4 0 0 1 1 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 3-4 75.0 0.0
Luka Dončić DNP - Inactive
Jaxson Hayes DNP - Coach's Decision
Bronny James 22:43 4 2 2 1 0 1 0 2-9 22.2 0-5 0.0 0-0 0.0 -25.0
LeBron James DNP - Inactive
Maxi Kleber 13:10 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Dalton Knecht 18:31 5 4 0 0 0 3 1 2-6 33.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -3.0
Chris Mañon 12:00 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Austin Reaves DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr. 12:00 11 0 2 0 0 0 1 4-6 66.7 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 -5.0
Adou Thiero 20:39 10 4 2 1 0 2 0 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 5-10 50.0 -15.0
Jarred Vanderbilt 4:41 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1-1 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-3 0.0 -4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: OKC @ LAL
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:07 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** OKC 123 - LAL 87 (Winner: OKC ✓) **Prediction:** OKC 123 - LAL 98 Score error: 0/11 | Total: pred 221, actual 210 (-11) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ SPREAD OKC -18.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD OKC -18.0 — WON
General Slate Analysis: OKC @ LAL
Apr 07, 2026 at 08:53 PM
**Prediction:** OKC 123 - LAL 98 (OKC by 25, total 221) **Confidence:** 97% **OKC** 57-16 (#1) | Net: 10.7 | Off: 115.9 | Def: 105.2 | Rest: 1d rest **LAL** 47-26 (#3) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 114.3 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.0 **Injuries:** OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) LAL: Luka Dončić (Out), Austin Reaves (Out), Marcus Smart (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 31.5p/4.4r/6.8a | Jalen Williams 16.5p/4.5r/5.6a | Isaiah Joe 13.5p/1.7r/1.2a LAL: LeBron James 20.4p/8.3r/8.3a | Rui Hachimura 12.1p/4.4r/0.7a | Deandre Ayton 10.2p/8.4r/0.6a **Value Bets:** SPREAD OKC -18.5 (moderate, EV $0.357/dollar) SPREAD OKC -18.0 (strong, EV $0.333/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred