Sacramento Kings 105 @ 110 Golden State Warriors

April 07, 2026 | Chase Center | Final

Grade: S Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

SAC GSW Total
Predicted 105 113 217
Actual 105 110 215
Diff 0 +3 +2
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Seth Curry Pred: 8/1/1 | Actual: 9/0/1
Dylan Cardwell Pred: 6/8/2 | Actual: 8/9/2
Nique Clifford Pred: 14/4/4 | Actual: 12/6/2
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Malik Monk Pred: 16pts | Actual: 4pts (off by 11)
Draymond Green Pred: 12pts | Actual: 1pts (off by 10)
Doug McDermott Pred: 5pts | Actual: 16pts (off by 10)

Sacramento Kings

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nique Clifford SG 35:32 12 6 2 2 0 2 4 4-14 28.6 1-4 25.0 3-4 75.0 0.0
Daeqwon Plowden SF 26:26 11 1 1 0 1 0 2 4-7 57.1 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Devin Carter PG 20:38 6 3 5 1 0 1 3 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -7.0
Precious Achiuwa PF 34:12 13 6 4 0 1 2 0 6-14 42.9 0-2 0.0 1-2 50.0 3.0
Maxime Raynaud C 26:11 17 7 1 0 0 2 0 7-14 50.0 0-1 0.0 3-3 100.0 -4.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. DNP - Inactive
Dylan Cardwell 25:55 8 9 2 0 3 0 6 4-4 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 1.0
DeMar DeRozan DNP - Inactive
Drew Eubanks DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine DNP - Coach's Decision
Doug McDermott 28:53 16 4 2 1 1 2 2 5-13 38.5 4-10 40.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Malik Monk 10:33 4 1 1 1 0 2 1 2-3 66.7 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Keegan Murray DNP - Coach's Decision
Domantas Sabonis DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook DNP - Inactive

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
De'Anthony Melton SG 28:40 21 4 5 1 0 1 0 7-12 58.3 4-6 66.7 3-5 60.0 -1.0
Pat Spencer SF 40:34 14 2 3 1 0 3 2 5-16 31.2 3-8 37.5 1-2 50.0 -5.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 29:31 20 1 3 1 0 2 2 5-11 45.5 4-6 66.7 6-6 100.0 8.0
Malevy Leons PF 20:59 2 5 3 0 2 3 3 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Draymond Green C 27:06 1 6 7 1 1 3 3 0-3 0.0 0-3 0.0 1-2 50.0 0.0
Charles Bassey 27:14 14 12 0 2 2 0 2 7-12 58.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer DNP - Inactive
Stephen Curry 25:00 17 5 2 1 0 3 0 5-12 41.7 4-11 36.4 3-3 100.0 6.0
Seth Curry 16:17 9 0 1 0 0 1 3 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 3-4 75.0 16.0
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Moses Moody DNP - Inactive
Gary Payton II 24:37 12 4 3 3 0 1 0 5-7 71.4 0-1 0.0 2-2 100.0 7.0
Kristaps Porziņģis DNP - Coach's Decision
Quinten Post DNP - Inactive
Will Richard DNP - Coach's Decision
Gui Santos DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: SAC @ GSW
Apr 08, 2026 at 09:07 AM
**Grade: S** — Nailed it. **Result:** SAC 105 - GSW 110 (Winner: GSW ✓) **Prediction:** SAC 105 - GSW 113 Score error: 0/3 | Total: pred 217, actual 215 (-2) **Standout Players:** Draymond Green (GSW): 1p actual vs 11.7p pred (+10.7) Doug McDermott (SAC): 16p actual vs 5.4p pred (-10.6) Malik Monk (SAC): 4p actual vs 15.6p pred (+11.6) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL UNDER 233.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAC 14.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD SAC 14.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: SAC @ GSW
Apr 07, 2026 at 08:53 PM
**Prediction:** SAC 105 - GSW 113 (GSW by 8, total 217) **Confidence:** 93% **SAC** 19-55 (#15) | Net: -10.1 | Off: 108.6 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest **GSW** 35-38 (#10) | Net: 0.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.0 **Injuries:** SAC: Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Day-To-Day), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts) GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), LJ Cryer (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Al Horford (Out), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** SAC: DeMar DeRozan 25.4p/2.9r/5.1a | Malik Monk 15.6p/2.5r/5.0a | Daeqwon Plowden 14.3p/3.2r/1.9a GSW: Kristaps Porziņģis 22.6p/7.1r/3.1a | Brandin Podziemski 21.1p/6.6r/5.1a | Gui Santos 16.2p/4.6r/2.5a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.523/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (strong, EV $0.502/dollar) SPREAD SAC 14.5 (moderate, EV $0.327/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred