Houston Rockets 117 @ 116 Golden State Warriors

April 05, 2026 | Chase Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

HOU GSW Total
Predicted 121 105 226
Actual 117 116 233
Diff +4 -11 -7
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Seth Curry Pred: 4/1/1 | Actual: 6/0/0
Josh Okogie Pred: 4/2/1 | Actual: 2/2/0
Jae'Sean Tate Pred: 3/2/0 | Actual: 0/2/1
Pat Spencer Pred: 8/3/4 | Actual: 7/1/3
Gui Santos Pred: 12/4/3 | Actual: 15/4/1

Houston Rockets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Amen Thompson SG 39:29 18 3 7 1 0 2 2 8-11 72.7 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 2.0
Kevin Durant SF 37:15 31 8 8 0 3 3 3 10-17 58.8 3-6 50.0 8-9 88.9 -4.0
Reed Sheppard PG 26:03 11 0 2 2 1 1 0 4-8 50.0 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 10.0
Jabari Smith Jr. PF 31:37 23 9 1 0 0 2 4 9-12 75.0 5-7 71.4 0-0 0.0 15.0
Alperen Sengun C 36:54 24 6 7 0 2 2 3 10-19 52.6 1-5 20.0 3-3 100.0 -1.0
Steven Adams DNP - Inactive
Clint Capela 3:55 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Isaiah Crawford DNP - Inactive
JD Davison DNP - Coach's Decision
Tari Eason 19:18 2 4 0 1 0 1 2 1-9 11.1 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Dorian Finney-Smith DNP - Coach's Decision
Jeff Green DNP - Coach's Decision
Aaron Holiday 22:06 6 2 4 0 1 1 1 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Tristen Newton DNP - Inactive
Josh Okogie 12:22 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Jae'Sean Tate 10:57 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Fred VanVleet DNP - Inactive

Golden State Warriors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
De'Anthony Melton SG 22:50 6 1 4 0 1 1 0 2-4 50.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 -7.0
Gui Santos SF 32:04 15 4 1 2 0 3 3 5-15 33.3 2-8 25.0 3-4 75.0 -3.0
Brandin Podziemski PG 36:50 18 2 3 1 0 2 0 7-11 63.6 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 -2.0
Draymond Green PF 34:03 7 6 12 1 0 1 5 3-4 75.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Kristaps Porziņģis C 22:36 9 8 3 0 0 0 6 3-9 33.3 0-3 0.0 3-3 100.0 -10.0
Charles Bassey 9:44 5 4 1 0 2 1 1 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 1-1 100.0 -2.0
Jimmy Butler III DNP - Inactive
LJ Cryer DNP - Inactive
Seth Curry 12:39 6 0 0 1 0 1 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 3-3 100.0 6.0
Stephen Curry 26:08 29 2 4 1 0 1 1 11-21 52.4 5-10 50.0 2-3 66.7 12.0
Al Horford DNP - Inactive
Malevy Leons DNP - Coach's Decision
Moses Moody DNP - Inactive
Gary Payton II 25:20 14 3 2 0 0 0 3 6-11 54.5 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 -3.0
Quinten Post DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Richard 5:36 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Pat Spencer 12:09 7 1 3 1 0 0 0 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 2-2 100.0 10.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: HOU @ GSW
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: A** — Winner right, total was close. **Result:** HOU 117 - GSW 116 (Winner: HOU ✓) **Prediction:** HOU 121 - GSW 105 Score error: 4/11 | Total: pred 226, actual 233 (+7) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -156 — WON ✗ SPREAD HOU -4.0 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE HOU -162 — WON ✗ SPREAD HOU -3.5 — LOST
General Slate Analysis: HOU @ GSW
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** HOU 121 - GSW 105 (HOU by 15, total 226) **Confidence:** 96% **HOU** 43-29 (#6) | Net: 3.8 | Off: 113.5 | Def: 109.6 | Rest: 1d rest **GSW** 35-38 (#10) | Net: 0.2 | Off: 111.7 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 100.7 **Injuries:** HOU: Steven Adams (Out), Fred VanVleet (Out) (impact: -1.2 pts) GSW: Jimmy Butler III (Out), Stephen Curry (Out), Seth Curry (Day-To-Day), Al Horford (Out), Moses Moody (Out), Quinten Post (Out), Gui Santos (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts) **Key Players:** HOU: Kevin Durant 25.0p/6.0r/5.3a | Alperen Sengun 19.4p/8.8r/5.9a | Reed Sheppard 19.0p/3.8r/5.0a GSW: Brandin Podziemski 21.4p/6.6r/4.1a | Kristaps Porziņģis 17.5p/5.6r/2.2a | De'Anthony Melton 13.8p/4.7r/3.0a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE HOU -156 (strong, EV $0.572/dollar) SPREAD HOU -4.0 (strong, EV $0.555/dollar) MONEYLINE HOU -162 (strong, EV $0.549/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] GSW without Curry+Butler is unpredictable for props. Role players (Melton, Podziemski, Horford) can explode beyond seaso - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred