LAC @ SAC - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	LAC	SAC	Total
Predicted	122	110	232
Actual	138	109	247
Diff	-16	+1	-15

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Cam Christie Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 2/2/1

Daeqwon Plowden Pred: 15/3/2 | Actual: 15/2/3

TyTy Washington Jr. Pred: 1/0/1 | Actual: 0/1/0

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Bennedict Mathurin Pred: 24pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 18)

DeMar DeRozan Pred: 23pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 14)

Kobe Sanders Pred: 7pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Clippers

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Darius Garland	SG	24:26	17	4	6	1	0	2	4	7-14	50.0	2-7	28.6	1-1	100.0	10.0
Derrick Jones Jr.	SF	25:13	6	3	1	1	0	1	0	3-4	75.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	21.0
Kris Dunn	PG	26:35	13	6	4	3	0	2	2	5-6	83.3	3-4	75.0	0-1	0.0	16.0
Kawhi Leonard	PF	29:51	26	6	3	0	0	1	1	9-18	50.0	3-9	33.3	5-5	100.0	26.0
Brook Lopez	C	19:06	9	2	0	0	0	1	2	2-5	40.0	1-3	33.3	4-4	100.0	15.0
Nicolas Batum	DNP - Coach's Decision
Bradley Beal	DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović		2:34	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-2	0.0	0-2	0.0	0-0	0.0	-8.0
Cam Christie		7:16	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	1-4	25.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	2.0
John Collins		23:57	25	4	2	2	0	2	3	9-20	45.0	4-6	66.7	3-3	100.0	15.0
Isaiah Jackson	DNP - Inactive
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser	DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin		27:21	5	6	5	3	0	2	0	2-4	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	15.0
Jordan Miller		23:29	13	2	6	1	1	2	2	5-6	83.3	3-3	100.0	0-0	0.0	21.0
Kobe Sanders		20:18	17	0	1	4	0	0	4	5-8	62.5	3-5	60.0	4-4	100.0	14.0
TyTy Washington Jr.		4:57	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	-1.0

Sacramento Kings

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Nique Clifford	SG	38:06	18	5	5	1	1	3	2	8-16	50.0	2-7	28.6	0-0	0.0	-19.0
DeMar DeRozan	SF	10:22	9	0	0	0	1	1	0	4-5	80.0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	2.0
Devin Carter	PG	36:26	21	5	5	1	1	3	4	8-14	57.1	0-5	0.0	5-9	55.6	-13.0
Precious Achiuwa	PF	20:11	8	5	0	0	0	1	3	3-6	50.0	0-0	0.0	2-6	33.3	-22.0
Maxime Raynaud	C	33:12	11	15	2	1	1	2	1	5-12	41.7	0-1	0.0	1-2	50.0	-11.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Dylan Cardwell		27:11	15	8	2	2	4	3	5	7-8	87.5	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	-17.0
Drew Eubanks	DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter	DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine	DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott		10:54	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	1-3	33.3	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	-12.0
Malik Monk		14:25	7	0	1	1	0	3	0	3-5	60.0	1-3	33.3	0-0	0.0	-19.0
Keegan Murray	DNP - Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden		35:42	15	2	3	1	0	1	4	5-13	38.5	3-9	33.3	2-3	66.7	-16.0
Domantas Sabonis	DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens	DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook	DNP - Inactive

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General Post-Game Review: LAC @ SAC

Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** LAC 138 - SAC 109 (Winner: LAC ✓)
**Prediction:** LAC 122 - SAC 110
Score error: 16/1 | Total: pred 232, actual 247 (+15)

**Standout Players:**
  DeMar DeRozan (SAC): 9p actual vs 23.1p pred (+14.1)
  Bennedict Mathurin (LAC): 5p actual vs 23.6p pred (+18.6)
  Kobe Sanders (LAC): 17p actual vs 6.7p pred (-10.3)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ TOTAL OVER 228.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL OVER 228.5 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -800 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -850 — WON

General Slate Analysis: LAC @ SAC

Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM

**Prediction:** LAC 122 - SAC 110 (LAC by 12, total 232)
**Confidence:** 95%

**LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 2d rest
**SAC** 19-55 (#15) | Net: -10.1 | Off: 108.6 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 100.2

**Injuries:**
  LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Isaiah Jackson (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out) (impact: -1.7 pts)
  SAC: Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Day-To-Day), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts)

**Key Players:**
  LAC: Kawhi Leonard 34.0p/7.8r/4.0a | Darius Garland 25.0p/2.4r/7.6a | Bennedict Mathurin 23.6p/5.3r/2.3a
  SAC: DeMar DeRozan 23.1p/4.0r/6.0a | Maxime Raynaud 17.1p/10.1r/1.6a | Malik Monk 15.7p/2.2r/5.0a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL OVER 228.5 (slight, EV $0.142/dollar)
  TOTAL OVER 228.5 (slight, EV $0.132/dollar)
  MONEYLINE LAC -800 (slight, EV $0.068/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Los Angeles Clippers 138 @ 109 Sacramento Kings