Los Angeles Clippers 138 @ 109 Sacramento Kings

April 05, 2026 | Golden 1 Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

LAC SAC Total
Predicted 122 110 232
Actual 138 109 247
Diff -16 +1 -15
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Cam Christie Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 2/2/1
Daeqwon Plowden Pred: 15/3/2 | Actual: 15/2/3
TyTy Washington Jr. Pred: 1/0/1 | Actual: 0/1/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Bennedict Mathurin Pred: 24pts | Actual: 5pts (off by 18)
DeMar DeRozan Pred: 23pts | Actual: 9pts (off by 14)
Kobe Sanders Pred: 7pts | Actual: 17pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Clippers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Darius Garland SG 24:26 17 4 6 1 0 2 4 7-14 50.0 2-7 28.6 1-1 100.0 10.0
Derrick Jones Jr. SF 25:13 6 3 1 1 0 1 0 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 21.0
Kris Dunn PG 26:35 13 6 4 3 0 2 2 5-6 83.3 3-4 75.0 0-1 0.0 16.0
Kawhi Leonard PF 29:51 26 6 3 0 0 1 1 9-18 50.0 3-9 33.3 5-5 100.0 26.0
Brook Lopez C 19:06 9 2 0 0 0 1 2 2-5 40.0 1-3 33.3 4-4 100.0 15.0
Nicolas Batum DNP - Coach's Decision
Bradley Beal DNP - Inactive
Bogdan Bogdanović 2:34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Cam Christie 7:16 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
John Collins 23:57 25 4 2 2 0 2 3 9-20 45.0 4-6 66.7 3-3 100.0 15.0
Isaiah Jackson DNP - Inactive
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser DNP - Inactive
Bennedict Mathurin 27:21 5 6 5 3 0 2 0 2-4 50.0 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Jordan Miller 23:29 13 2 6 1 1 2 2 5-6 83.3 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 21.0
Kobe Sanders 20:18 17 0 1 4 0 0 4 5-8 62.5 3-5 60.0 4-4 100.0 14.0
TyTy Washington Jr. 4:57 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0

Sacramento Kings

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Nique Clifford SG 38:06 18 5 5 1 1 3 2 8-16 50.0 2-7 28.6 0-0 0.0 -19.0
DeMar DeRozan SF 10:22 9 0 0 0 1 1 0 4-5 80.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Devin Carter PG 36:26 21 5 5 1 1 3 4 8-14 57.1 0-5 0.0 5-9 55.6 -13.0
Precious Achiuwa PF 20:11 8 5 0 0 0 1 3 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 2-6 33.3 -22.0
Maxime Raynaud C 33:12 11 15 2 1 1 2 1 5-12 41.7 0-1 0.0 1-2 50.0 -11.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. DNP - Inactive
Dylan Cardwell 27:11 15 8 2 2 4 3 5 7-8 87.5 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -17.0
Drew Eubanks DNP - Coach's Decision
De'Andre Hunter DNP - Inactive
Zach LaVine DNP - Inactive
Doug McDermott 10:54 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 1-3 33.3 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Malik Monk 14:25 7 0 1 1 0 3 0 3-5 60.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Keegan Murray DNP - Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden 35:42 15 2 3 1 0 1 4 5-13 38.5 3-9 33.3 2-3 66.7 -16.0
Domantas Sabonis DNP - Inactive
Isaiah Stevens DNP - Inactive
Russell Westbrook DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAC @ SAC
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** LAC 138 - SAC 109 (Winner: LAC ✓) **Prediction:** LAC 122 - SAC 110 Score error: 16/1 | Total: pred 232, actual 247 (+15) **Standout Players:** DeMar DeRozan (SAC): 9p actual vs 23.1p pred (+14.1) Bennedict Mathurin (LAC): 5p actual vs 23.6p pred (+18.6) Kobe Sanders (LAC): 17p actual vs 6.7p pred (-10.3) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ TOTAL OVER 228.5 — WON ✓ TOTAL OVER 228.5 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -800 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE LAC -850 — WON
General Slate Analysis: LAC @ SAC
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** LAC 122 - SAC 110 (LAC by 12, total 232) **Confidence:** 95% **LAC** 37-36 (#8) | Net: 1.3 | Off: 114.8 | Def: 113.4 | Rest: 2d rest **SAC** 19-55 (#15) | Net: -10.1 | Off: 108.6 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 100.2 **Injuries:** LAC: Bradley Beal (Out), Isaiah Jackson (Out), Yanic Konan Niederhäuser (Out) (impact: -1.7 pts) SAC: Drew Eubanks (Out), De'Andre Hunter (Out), Zach LaVine (Out), Keegan Murray (Out), Domantas Sabonis (Out), Isaiah Stevens (Day-To-Day), Russell Westbrook (Out) (impact: -7.0 pts) **Key Players:** LAC: Kawhi Leonard 34.0p/7.8r/4.0a | Darius Garland 25.0p/2.4r/7.6a | Bennedict Mathurin 23.6p/5.3r/2.3a SAC: DeMar DeRozan 23.1p/4.0r/6.0a | Maxime Raynaud 17.1p/10.1r/1.6a | Malik Monk 15.7p/2.2r/5.0a **Value Bets:** TOTAL OVER 228.5 (slight, EV $0.142/dollar) TOTAL OVER 228.5 (slight, EV $0.132/dollar) MONEYLINE LAC -800 (slight, EV $0.068/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred