Los Angeles Lakers 128 @ 134 Dallas Mavericks

April 05, 2026 | American Airlines Center | Final

Grade: F Prediction Recap
Winner: Wrong

This one didn't go great. We'll get 'em next time.

LAL DAL Total
Predicted 116 112 228
Actual 128 134 262
Diff -12 -22 -34
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Bronny James Pred: 4/0/1 | Actual: 5/0/1
Klay Thompson Pred: 11/2/2 | Actual: 11/0/2
Kobe Bufkin Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Daniel Gafford Pred: 9/7/1 | Actual: 7/7/0
P.J. Washington Pred: 16/8/1 | Actual: 15/6/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Cooper Flagg Pred: 22pts | Actual: 45pts (off by 23)
Jaxson Hayes Pred: 12pts | Actual: 23pts (off by 10)

Los Angeles Lakers

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jake LaRavia SG 35:43 14 5 1 2 0 2 6 3-11 27.3 1-5 20.0 7-8 87.5 -3.0
LeBron James SF 38:43 30 9 15 1 0 4 1 12-22 54.5 1-6 16.7 5-9 55.6 1.0
Luke Kennard PG 41:10 15 16 11 1 0 3 3 5-17 29.4 1-5 20.0 4-4 100.0 8.0
Rui Hachimura PF 39:02 21 7 1 1 0 0 1 9-13 69.2 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 5.0
Deandre Ayton C 19:26 13 4 1 0 1 0 2 5-9 55.6 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 0.0
Kobe Bufkin 3:20 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Luka DončiΔ‡ DNP - Inactive
Jaxson Hayes 27:12 23 4 2 0 0 3 4 8-10 80.0 0-0 0.0 7-8 87.5 -5.0
Bronny James 8:45 5 0 1 0 0 0 3 2-3 66.7 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Maxi Kleber 12:42 2 1 3 1 0 0 2 1-2 50.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Dalton Knecht DNP - Coach's Decision
Chris MaΓ±on DNP - Inactive
Austin Reaves DNP - Inactive
Marcus Smart DNP - Inactive
Nick Smith Jr. 2:21 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Adou Thiero DNP - Coach's Decision
Drew Timme DNP - Inactive
Jarred Vanderbilt 11:36 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 2-2 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0

Dallas Mavericks

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Max Christie SG 25:12 8 1 2 2 0 1 0 2-6 33.3 2-6 33.3 2-2 100.0 2.0
Cooper Flagg SF 38:31 45 8 9 2 1 2 2 14-27 51.9 2-4 50.0 15-17 88.2 11.0
Naji Marshall PG 31:37 13 6 7 2 0 2 2 5-9 55.6 0-2 0.0 3-6 50.0 -5.0
P.J. Washington PF 29:34 15 6 0 0 0 2 2 6-10 60.0 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Daniel Gafford C 19:54 7 7 0 2 2 0 3 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 3-4 75.0 19.0
Marvin Bagley III 21:29 9 4 0 1 1 0 1 4-7 57.1 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -10.0
Moussa Cisse DNP - Inactive
Kyrie Irving DNP - Inactive
AJ Johnson DNP - Coach's Decision
Dereck Lively II DNP - Inactive
Caleb Martin DNP - Inactive
Khris Middleton 17:39 8 2 0 0 0 0 4 3-5 60.0 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 6.0
Ryan Nembhard DNP - Coach's Decision
Dwight Powell 6:21 0 2 2 0 1 0 4 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Klay Thompson 18:09 11 0 2 0 0 0 0 4-8 50.0 3-6 50.0 0-0 0.0 4.0
Brandon Williams 24:36 13 2 5 2 0 0 2 4-7 57.1 0-1 0.0 5-7 71.4 10.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: LAL @ DAL
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: F** β€” Missed this one. **Result:** LAL 128 - DAL 134 (Winner: DAL βœ—) **Prediction:** LAL 116 - DAL 112 Score error: 12/22 | Total: pred 228, actual 262 (+34) **Standout Players:** Jaxson Hayes (LAL): 23p actual vs 12.5p pred (-10.5) Cooper Flagg (DAL): 45p actual vs 21.8p pred (-23.2) **Value Bet Results:** βœ— MONEYLINE LAL -122 β€” LOST βœ— MONEYLINE LAL -126 β€” LOST βœ— TOTAL UNDER 233.5 β€” LOST βœ— TOTAL UNDER 232.5 β€” LOST βœ— SPREAD LAL -1.5 β€” LOST βœ— SPREAD LAL -1.5 β€” LOST
General Slate Analysis: LAL @ DAL
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** LAL 116 - DAL 112 (LAL by 4, total 228) **Confidence:** 84% **LAL** 47-26 (#3) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 115.8 | Def: 114.3 | Rest: 2d rest **DAL** 23-50 (#13) | Net: -5.0 | Off: 108.5 | Def: 113.5 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.3 **Injuries:** LAL: Luka DončiΔ‡ (Out), Austin Reaves (Out), Marcus Smart (Out), Jarred Vanderbilt (Day-To-Day) (impact: -10.0 pts) DAL: Marvin Bagley III (Out), Kyrie Irving (Out), Dereck Lively II (Out), Caleb Martin (Out) (impact: -3.4 pts) **Key Players:** LAL: LeBron James 24.7p/8.4r/9.2a | Deandre Ayton 15.3p/9.7r/0.7a | Rui Hachimura 13.0p/3.7r/0.6a DAL: Cooper Flagg 21.8p/6.7r/4.6a | Naji Marshall 19.2p/5.3r/3.3a | Brandon Williams 16.7p/3.0r/5.2a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE LAL -122 (strong, EV $0.532/dollar) MONEYLINE LAL -126 (strong, EV $0.510/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 233.5 (moderate, EV $0.217/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 β€” Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred