Utah Jazz 111 @ 146 Oklahoma City Thunder

April 05, 2026 | Paycom Center | Final

Grade: C Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner at least. The scores... we don't talk about the scores.

UTA OKC Total
Predicted 99 129 228
Actual 111 146 257
Diff -12 -17 -29
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Ace Bailey Pred: 14/4/2 | Actual: 14/4/2
Isaiah Joe Pred: 11/2/1 | Actual: 9/2/1
Isaiah Hartenstein Pred: 10/10/4 | Actual: 10/8/3
Nikola Topić Pred: 4/2/2 | Actual: 2/2/4
Kenrich Williams Pred: 6/3/1 | Actual: 8/1/1
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Pred: 41pts | Actual: 20pts (off by 20)
Brice Sensabaugh Pred: 15pts | Actual: 34pts (off by 18)
Aaron Wiggins Pred: 11pts | Actual: 0pts (off by 11)

Utah Jazz

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Ace Bailey SG 33:27 14 4 2 1 2 3 2 6-14 42.9 2-6 33.3 0-0 0.0 -47.0
Cody Williams SF 36:23 8 4 5 3 0 1 1 3-11 27.3 0-2 0.0 2-2 100.0 -27.0
Brice Sensabaugh PG 43:14 34 4 5 1 0 2 2 11-19 57.9 6-10 60.0 6-6 100.0 -26.0
Oscar Tshiebwe PF 20:10 4 4 2 0 0 2 2 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -39.0
Kyle Filipowski C 37:34 20 14 6 0 1 2 4 10-25 40.0 0-5 0.0 0-1 0.0 -17.0
Isaiah Collier DNP - Coach's Decision
Keyonte George DNP - Inactive
Elijah Harkless DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaren Jackson Jr. DNP - Inactive
Walker Kessler DNP - Inactive
John Konchar 25:56 9 9 3 5 0 2 0 3-7 42.9 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 -13.0
Kevin Love DNP - Coach's Decision
Lauri Markkanen DNP - Inactive
Svi Mykhailiuk 23:28 17 4 1 1 0 3 1 6-16 37.5 5-14 35.7 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Jusuf Nurkić DNP - Inactive

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Luguentz Dort SG 21:13 13 4 2 1 1 1 1 5-7 71.4 3-5 60.0 0-0 0.0 24.0
Jalen Williams SF 25:40 15 2 7 0 0 1 0 5-9 55.6 1-2 50.0 4-4 100.0 31.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PG 23:37 20 4 7 1 0 3 0 7-10 70.0 2-3 66.7 4-5 80.0 26.0
Chet Holmgren PF 22:13 21 7 1 0 4 1 1 8-11 72.7 4-5 80.0 1-2 50.0 30.0
Isaiah Hartenstein C 18:58 10 8 3 0 1 1 0 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 19.0
Brooks Barnhizer DNP - Inactive
Branden Carlson 8:06 11 2 0 0 1 0 0 5-6 83.3 1-2 50.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Alex Caruso 13:16 5 4 0 1 0 1 1 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 7.0
Isaiah Joe 14:26 9 2 1 1 0 2 2 3-5 60.0 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 10.0
Jared McCain 15:05 3 1 2 1 0 1 1 1-4 25.0 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Ajay Mitchell 18:47 7 1 7 1 0 2 1 3-9 33.3 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 15.0
Thomas Sorber DNP - Inactive
Nikola Topić 8:06 2 2 4 0 0 1 1 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 -4.0
Cason Wallace 21:57 16 5 1 2 0 0 0 6-10 60.0 4-5 80.0 0-0 0.0 20.0
Aaron Wiggins 8:06 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0-3 0.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Jaylin Williams 12:23 6 3 3 0 0 0 3 2-5 40.0 2-4 50.0 0-0 0.0 10.0
Kenrich Williams 8:06 8 1 1 0 0 1 1 3-3 100.0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: UTA @ OKC
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: C** — Got the winner at least. **Result:** UTA 111 - OKC 146 (Winner: OKC ✓) **Prediction:** UTA 99 - OKC 129 Score error: 12/17 | Total: pred 228, actual 257 (+29) **Standout Players:** Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 20p actual vs 40.9p pred (+20.9) Aaron Wiggins (OKC): 0p actual vs 11.3p pred (+11.3) Brice Sensabaugh (UTA): 34p actual vs 15.3p pred (-18.7) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL UNDER 238.5 — LOST ✓ SPREAD OKC -24.0 — WON ✓ SPREAD OKC -24.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: UTA @ OKC
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** UTA 99 - OKC 129 (OKC by 29, total 228) **Confidence:** 97% **UTA** 21-52 (#14) | Net: -7.4 | Off: 111.3 | Def: 118.7 | Rest: 1d rest **OKC** 57-16 (#1) | Net: 10.7 | Off: 115.9 | Def: 105.2 | Rest: 2d rest Projected pace: 103.0 **Injuries:** UTA: Isaiah Collier (Out), Keyonte George (Out), Elijah Harkless (Out), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Out), Walker Kessler (Out), Lauri Markkanen (Day-To-Day), Jusuf Nurkić (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts) OKC: Thomas Sorber (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts) **Key Players:** UTA: Lauri Markkanen 21.6p/8.2r/1.6a | Kyle Filipowski 15.9p/10.3r/2.4a | Brice Sensabaugh 15.3p/4.0r/2.6a OKC: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 40.9p/3.9r/7.1a | Jalen Williams 20.8p/4.4r/7.0a | Chet Holmgren 17.9p/9.0r/1.4a **Value Bets:** TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (strong, EV $0.489/dollar) TOTAL UNDER 238.5 (strong, EV $0.456/dollar) SPREAD OKC -24.0 (moderate, EV $0.241/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [team] Utah's young core (Bailey, Collier, Filipowski, Sensabaugh) can massively exceed season averages when given the keys. Ba - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred