Orlando Magic 112 @ 108 New Orleans Pelicans

April 05, 2026 | Smoothie King Center | Final

Grade: B Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

ORL NOP Total
Predicted 121 114 235
Actual 112 108 220
Diff +9 +6 +15
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Hunter Dickinson Pred: 2/0/0 | Actual: 0/1/0
Desmond Bane Pred: 26/4/5 | Actual: 27/6/4
Herbert Jones Pred: 8/3/2 | Actual: 5/3/1
Jordan Hawkins Pred: 5/2/1 | Actual: 7/3/2
Trey Alexander Pred: 2/1/1 | Actual: 5/2/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
Tristan da Silva Pred: 15pts | Actual: 2pts (off by 12)
Saddiq Bey Pred: 19pts | Actual: 32pts (off by 12)
Yves Missi Pred: 6pts | Actual: 18pts (off by 11)

Orlando Magic

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Desmond Bane SG 34:07 27 6 4 1 1 2 3 8-19 42.1 3-8 37.5 8-11 72.7 8.0
Franz Wagner SF 20:15 11 5 2 0 1 0 1 4-10 40.0 0-1 0.0 3-4 75.0 10.0
Jalen Suggs PG 33:37 11 4 8 1 0 1 4 4-19 21.1 3-12 25.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Paolo Banchero PF 38:02 23 16 6 2 1 5 3 6-14 42.9 0-3 0.0 11-15 73.3 -1.0
Wendell Carter Jr. C 31:45 13 5 1 0 0 1 5 6-7 85.7 0-1 0.0 1-4 25.0 -5.0
Goga Bitadze 16:15 6 8 1 1 2 2 3 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 9.0
Anthony Black DNP - Inactive
Jamal Cain 27:37 8 5 2 0 0 0 2 3-7 42.9 0-3 0.0 2-2 100.0 11.0
Jevon Carter 20:46 11 5 1 0 0 0 1 5-9 55.6 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 2.0
Colin Castleton DNP - Inactive
Tristan da Silva 17:35 2 3 2 1 0 2 1 1-4 25.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -13.0
Jett Howard DNP - Inactive
Jonathan Isaac DNP - Inactive
Noah Penda DNP - Coach's Decision
Jase Richardson DNP - Coach's Decision
Moritz Wagner DNP - Coach's Decision

New Orleans Pelicans

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Herbert Jones SG 8:44 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 2-4 50.0 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 8.0
Saddiq Bey SF 38:46 32 6 1 2 0 1 4 10-24 41.7 3-8 37.5 9-11 81.8 6.0
Jeremiah Fears PG 36:44 19 3 7 2 1 3 4 4-14 28.6 2-7 28.6 9-11 81.8 0.0
Zion Williamson PF 27:48 17 7 2 0 1 1 3 5-11 45.5 0-0 0.0 7-9 77.8 -1.0
Yves Missi C 39:46 18 13 3 0 4 3 4 8-9 88.9 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 1.0
Trey Alexander 11:16 5 2 0 1 0 1 2 2-4 50.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
Hunter Dickinson 4:23 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -8.0
Jordan Hawkins 26:23 7 3 2 0 0 3 1 2-7 28.6 2-6 33.3 1-1 100.0 2.0
DeAndre Jordan DNP - Coach's Decision
Kevon Looney DNP - Coach's Decision
Karlo Matković DNP - Inactive
Bryce McGowens DNP - Inactive
Trey Murphy III DNP - Inactive
Dejounte Murray DNP - Inactive
Micah Peavy 27:51 3 5 1 1 1 1 3 1-6 16.7 1-4 25.0 0-0 0.0 -19.0
Jordan Poole DNP - Coach's Decision
Derik Queen 18:17 2 4 1 1 0 1 4 1-4 25.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -5.0
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: ORL @ NOP
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: B** β€” Right winner, scores a bit off. **Result:** ORL 112 - NOP 108 (Winner: ORL βœ“) **Prediction:** ORL 121 - NOP 114 Score error: 9/6 | Total: pred 235, actual 220 (-15) **Standout Players:** Saddiq Bey (NOP): 32p actual vs 19.4p pred (-12.6) Tristan da Silva (ORL): 2p actual vs 14.7p pred (+12.7) Yves Missi (NOP): 18p actual vs 6.1p pred (-11.9) **Value Bet Results:** βœ“ MONEYLINE ORL -190 β€” WON βœ“ MONEYLINE ORL -198 β€” WON βœ— SPREAD ORL -4.5 β€” LOST βœ— SPREAD ORL -4.5 β€” LOST
General Slate Analysis: ORL @ NOP
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** ORL 121 - NOP 114 (ORL by 8, total 235) **Confidence:** 92% **ORL** 39-34 (#8) | Net: 0.9 | Off: 112.3 | Def: 111.5 | Rest: 1d rest **NOP** 25-49 (#11) | Net: -3.8 | Off: 111.6 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 102.4 **Injuries:** ORL: Anthony Black (Out), Jonathan Isaac (Out), Jalen Suggs (Out) (impact: -4.9 pts) NOP: Karlo Matković (Day-To-Day), Bryce McGowens (Out), Trey Murphy III (Day-To-Day), Dejounte Murray (Day-To-Day) (impact: -2.4 pts) **Key Players:** ORL: Desmond Bane 26.3p/4.4r/5.0a | Paolo Banchero 23.6p/9.4r/6.6a | Franz Wagner 20.9p/5.0r/3.6a NOP: Saddiq Bey 19.4p/4.6r/2.6a | Zion Williamson 19.4p/4.8r/3.0a | Jeremiah Fears 17.1p/3.6r/3.9a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE ORL -190 (strong, EV $0.410/dollar) MONEYLINE ORL -198 (strong, EV $0.391/dollar) SPREAD ORL -4.5 (slight, EV $0.145/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred