Charlotte Hornets 122 @ 108 Minnesota Timberwolves

April 05, 2026 | Target Center | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

CHA MIN Total
Predicted 117 112 229
Actual 122 108 230
Diff -5 +4 -1
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Julian Phillips Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 2/0/0
Grant Williams Pred: 7/4/2 | Actual: 8/4/1
Julius Randle Pred: 24/8/4 | Actual: 26/8/4
Pat Connaughton Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/2/0
Joan Beringer Pred: 2/2/0 | Actual: 4/0/0
Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+
LaMelo Ball Pred: 18pts | Actual: 35pts (off by 16)
Brandon Miller Pred: 21pts | Actual: 7pts (off by 14)
Bones Hyland Pred: 7pts | Actual: 18pts (off by 10)

Charlotte Hornets

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Brandon Miller SG 33:57 7 6 3 1 0 1 0 3-15 20.0 1-9 11.1 0-0 0.0 22.0
Kon Knueppel SF 31:22 11 4 3 1 0 3 4 4-14 28.6 1-4 25.0 2-3 66.7 6.0
LaMelo Ball PG 31:23 35 3 8 1 0 4 2 13-22 59.1 7-14 50.0 2-2 100.0 15.0
Miles Bridges PF 33:46 25 8 7 0 0 2 1 10-12 83.3 4-4 100.0 1-1 100.0 16.0
Moussa Diabaté C 24:08 8 9 4 1 1 1 5 3-4 75.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 9.0
Pat Connaughton 3:15 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Tosan Evbuomwan DNP - Inactive
Josh Green 2:30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -4.0
PJ Hall DNP - Inactive
Sion James 22:25 5 5 4 1 0 1 1 2-7 28.6 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 8.0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 16:28 2 5 0 0 0 0 2 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -1.0
Tre Mann DNP - Coach's Decision
Liam McNeeley DNP - Inactive
Antonio Reeves DNP - Inactive
Tidjane Salaün DNP - Inactive
Xavier Tillman 2:17 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 2-2 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Coby White 19:36 17 0 1 0 0 3 3 5-11 45.5 3-5 60.0 4-5 80.0 -5.0
Grant Williams 18:51 8 4 1 2 1 0 2 2-3 66.7 2-3 66.7 2-2 100.0 12.0

Minnesota Timberwolves

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Donte DiVincenzo SG 27:00 6 1 3 2 0 2 3 2-9 22.2 2-8 25.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Ayo Dosunmu SF 34:29 12 4 2 0 0 1 3 4-9 44.4 0-2 0.0 4-4 100.0 -23.0
Julius Randle PF 32:04 26 8 4 0 0 5 2 9-16 56.2 1-5 20.0 7-9 77.8 -17.0
Rudy Gobert C 29:48 12 10 2 1 1 3 0 6-9 66.7 0-0 0.0 0-2 0.0 -13.0
Kyle Anderson 16:59 2 1 3 1 0 0 1 1-3 33.3 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -11.0
Joan Beringer 3:15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 2-2 100.0 6.0
Jaylen Clark 10:55 9 0 2 1 0 0 2 3-4 75.0 3-3 100.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Anthony Edwards DNP - Inactive
Enrique Freeman DNP - Coach's Decision
Bones Hyland 28:41 18 6 6 2 1 2 1 5-11 45.5 5-11 45.5 3-4 75.0 -1.0
Joe Ingles DNP - Coach's Decision
Jaden McDaniels DNP - Inactive
Julian Phillips 3:15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Naz Reid 24:44 6 7 1 0 1 1 3 3-14 21.4 0-4 0.0 0-0 0.0 -12.0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 4:40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 6.0
Rocco Zikarsky DNP - Inactive
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: CHA @ MIN
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** CHA 122 - MIN 108 (Winner: CHA ✓) **Prediction:** CHA 117 - MIN 112 Score error: 5/4 | Total: pred 229, actual 230 (+1) **Standout Players:** LaMelo Ball (CHA): 35p actual vs 18.1p pred (-16.9) Bones Hyland (MIN): 18p actual vs 7.4p pred (-10.6) Brandon Miller (CHA): 7p actual vs 21.1p pred (+14.1) **Value Bet Results:** ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -125 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE CHA -130 — WON ✓ SPREAD CHA -1.5 — WON ✓ SPREAD CHA -2.5 — WON
General Slate Analysis: CHA @ MIN
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** CHA 117 - MIN 112 (CHA by 6, total 229) **Confidence:** 91% **CHA** 39-34 (#9) | Net: 4.6 | Off: 114.6 | Def: 110.0 | Rest: 1d rest **MIN** 45-28 (#5) | Net: 3.7 | Off: 114.5 | Def: 110.8 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 101.9 **Injuries:** CHA: Moussa Diabaté (Day-To-Day), PJ Hall (Out) (impact: -0.4 pts) MIN: Anthony Edwards (Day-To-Day), Jaden McDaniels (Out) (impact: -3.9 pts) **Key Players:** CHA: Miles Bridges 21.3p/6.3r/2.7a | Brandon Miller 21.1p/5.4r/3.2a | LaMelo Ball 18.1p/5.0r/8.2a MIN: Julius Randle 23.6p/7.5r/4.2a | Anthony Edwards 23.3p/3.8r/3.7a | Donte DiVincenzo 14.9p/2.9r/3.3a **Value Bets:** MONEYLINE CHA -125 (strong, EV $0.636/dollar) MONEYLINE CHA -130 (strong, EV $0.608/dollar) SPREAD CHA -1.5 (moderate, EV $0.192/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred