PHX @ CHI - NBA Local

Grade: S Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Nailed it. Called the winner and basically the exact score. You're welcome.

	PHX	CHI	Total
Predicted	123	108	231
Actual	120	110	230
Diff	+3	-2	+1

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Yuki Kawamura Pred: 2/2/3 | Actual: 3/1/2

Devin Booker Pred: 30/4/6 | Actual: 30/3/4

Dillon Brooks Pred: 16/3/2 | Actual: 15/4/3

Patrick Williams Pred: 5/3/1 | Actual: 5/1/3

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

Grayson Allen Pred: 19pts | Actual: 6pts (off by 13)

Phoenix Suns

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Jalen Green	SG	36:15	25	4	4	1	0	6	4	11-21	52.4	2-7	28.6	1-2	50.0	8.0
Jordan Goodwin	SF	24:23	12	7	1	0	0	1	1	5-5	100.0	2-2	100.0	0-0	0.0	0.0
Devin Booker	PG	35:41	30	3	4	1	0	1	5	9-22	40.9	3-7	42.9	9-10	90.0	3.0
Dillon Brooks	PF	33:28	15	4	3	2	1	2	2	6-15	40.0	1-4	25.0	2-2	100.0	10.0
Mark Williams	C	25:44	14	8	1	0	1	2	1	6-8	75.0	0-0	0.0	2-2	100.0	7.0
Grayson Allen		16:10	6	5	2	3	0	1	5	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	3-4	75.0	1.0
Jamaree Bouyea	DNP - Coach's Decision
Koby Brea	DNP - Coach's Decision
Amir Coffey	DNP - Coach's Decision
Ryan Dunn	DNP - Coach's Decision
Rasheer Fleming	DNP - Coach's Decision
Collin Gillespie		24:10	9	3	3	1	1	0	0	3-11	27.3	3-8	37.5	0-0	0.0	13.0
Oso Ighodaro		22:16	6	4	2	2	3	0	2	3-3	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-2	0.0	3.0
Isaiah Livers	DNP - Inactive
Khaman Maluach	DNP - Coach's Decision
Royce O'Neale		21:51	3	3	2	0	0	2	2	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	5.0

Chicago Bulls

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Collin Sexton	SG	30:44	18	9	1	3	0	5	5	5-15	33.3	3-6	50.0	5-6	83.3	-10.0
Isaac Okoro	SF	36:27	10	4	5	2	1	3	4	5-10	50.0	0-5	0.0	0-0	0.0	-3.0
Tre Jones	PG	31:03	29	3	6	2	0	2	3	12-20	60.0	1-4	25.0	4-4	100.0	-1.0
Leonard Miller	PF	32:54	17	10	2	0	0	3	2	7-14	50.0	2-5	40.0	1-1	100.0	-10.0
Guerschon Yabusele	C	31:37	8	9	1	0	0	2	0	3-9	33.3	2-6	33.3	0-0	0.0	-12.0
Matas Buzelis	DNP - Inactive
Zach Collins	DNP - Inactive
Rob Dillingham		20:08	10	4	2	0	0	2	1	4-8	50.0	1-4	25.0	1-2	50.0	-4.0
Noa Essengue	DNP - Inactive
Josh Giddey	DNP - Coach's Decision
Yuki Kawamura		5:57	3	1	2	0	0	0	1	1-2	50.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	-1.0
Mac McClung		10:37	9	0	1	1	0	0	1	2-4	50.0	0-2	0.0	5-7	71.4	0.0
Lachlan Olbrich		16:23	1	5	3	1	0	0	3	0-1	0.0	0-0	0.0	1-2	50.0	2.0
Nick Richards	DNP - Coach's Decision
Anfernee Simons	DNP - Inactive
Jalen Smith	DNP - Inactive
Patrick Williams		24:08	5	1	3	1	1	1	3	2-8	25.0	0-5	0.0	1-1	100.0	-11.0

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: PHX @ CHI

Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM

**Grade: S** — Nailed it.
**Result:** PHX 120 - CHI 110 (Winner: PHX ✓)
**Prediction:** PHX 123 - CHI 108
Score error: 3/2 | Total: pred 231, actual 230 (-1)

**Standout Players:**
  Grayson Allen (PHX): 6p actual vs 19.2p pred (+13.2)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 239.5 — WON
  ✓ TOTAL UNDER 239.5 — WON
  ✗ SPREAD PHX -10.0 — LOST
  ✓ SPREAD PHX -9.5 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE PHX -470 — WON
  ✓ MONEYLINE PHX -480 — WON

General Slate Analysis: PHX @ CHI

Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM

**Prediction:** PHX 123 - CHI 108 (PHX by 15, total 231)
**Confidence:** 96%

**PHX** 40-33 (#7) | Net: 1.2 | Off: 111.9 | Def: 110.7 | Rest: 2d rest
**CHI** 29-43 (#12) | Net: -4.3 | Off: 111.1 | Def: 115.4 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 102.1

**Injuries:**
  PHX: Amir Coffey (Out) (impact: -0.3 pts)
  CHI: Zach Collins (Out), Noa Essengue (Out), Josh Giddey (Day-To-Day), Lachlan Olbrich (Day-To-Day), Nick Richards (Out), Collin Sexton (Day-To-Day), Anfernee Simons (Out), Jalen Smith (Out) (impact: -5.8 pts)

**Key Players:**
  PHX: Devin Booker 29.7p/4.0r/5.6a | Grayson Allen 19.2p/2.5r/4.1a | Jalen Green 19.1p/3.7r/3.7a
  CHI: Tre Jones 19.5p/4.6r/6.1a | Collin Sexton 19.4p/2.2r/3.5a | Matas Buzelis 14.6p/6.3r/1.8a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (strong, EV $0.391/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 239.5 (strong, EV $0.360/dollar)
  SPREAD PHX -10.0 (moderate, EV $0.241/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Phoenix Suns 120 @ 110 Chicago Bulls