WAS @ BKN - NBA Local

Grade: B Prediction Recap

Winner: Correct

Picked the right winner. Score was a bit off, but that's what matters.

	WAS	BKN	Total
Predicted	105	112	217
Actual	115	121	236
Diff	-10	-9	-19

Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2

Chaney Johnson Pred: 10/4/3 | Actual: 9/5/1

Drake Powell Pred: 10/3/2 | Actual: 13/1/2

Missed By a Mile PTS off by 10+

E.J. Liddell Pred: 2pts | Actual: 15pts (off by 12)

Will Riley Pred: 18pts | Actual: 30pts (off by 11)

Jalen Wilson Pred: 8pts | Actual: 19pts (off by 11)

Washington Wizards

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Jamir Watkins	SF	43:44	20	8	2	0	2	4	4	7-11	63.6	2-5	40.0	4-6	66.7	-5.0
Bub Carrington	PG	17:13	13	3	3	0	0	4	1	6-8	75.0	1-2	50.0	0-0	0.0	6.0
Anthony Gill	PF	40:57	17	5	3	0	1	0	3	8-10	80.0	0-1	0.0	1-1	100.0	-5.0
Justin Champagnie	DNP - Coach's Decision
Sharife Cooper		3:23	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	1-1	100.0	0-0	0.0	0-0	0.0	1.0
Bilal Coulibaly	DNP - Coach's Decision
Anthony Davis	DNP - Inactive
Kyshawn George	DNP - Inactive
Jaden Hardy		13:37	8	0	3	0	0	2	2	2-8	25.0	1-4	25.0	3-4	75.0	3.0
Tre Johnson	DNP - Coach's Decision
Will Riley		35:06	30	4	6	0	0	4	4	9-16	56.2	3-7	42.9	9-12	75.0	-7.0
D'Angelo Russell	DNP - Inactive
Alex Sarr	DNP - Inactive
Tristan Vukcevic	DNP - Coach's Decision
Cam Whitmore	DNP - Inactive
Trae Young	DNP - Inactive

Brooklyn Nets

Player	Pos	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	+/-
Drake Powell	SG	29:26	13	1	2	3	0	0	2	5-10	50.0	1-3	33.3	2-2	100.0	13.0
Jalen Wilson	SF	25:41	19	5	4	1	0	1	4	6-9	66.7	2-4	50.0	5-6	83.3	10.0
Nolan Traore	PG	28:13	23	2	7	0	0	3	0	7-18	38.9	5-11	45.5	4-4	100.0	6.0
E.J. Liddell	PF	29:42	15	5	2	0	2	3	4	5-7	71.4	2-2	100.0	3-4	75.0	8.0
Chaney Johnson	C	21:18	9	5	1	1	2	1	1	3-5	60.0	1-1	100.0	2-2	100.0	7.0
Ochai Agbaji		18:18	12	4	2	1	0	0	1	5-11	45.5	2-4	50.0	0-0	0.0	-2.0
Nic Claxton	DNP - Inactive
Noah Clowney	DNP - Inactive
Egor Dëmin	DNP - Inactive
Tyson Etienne		19:47	9	0	4	1	0	1	3	3-6	50.0	1-4	25.0	2-2	100.0	0.0
Terance Mann	DNP - Inactive
Josh Minott		18:18	15	1	1	2	3	1	1	6-11	54.5	1-5	20.0	2-3	66.7	-2.0
Michael Porter Jr.	DNP - Inactive
Ben Saraf	DNP - Coach's Decision
Day'Ron Sharpe	DNP - Inactive
Ziaire Williams	DNP - Coach's Decision
Danny Wolf	DNP - Inactive

Add Analysis Entry

General Post-Game Review: WAS @ BKN

Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM

**Grade: B** — Right winner, scores a bit off.
**Result:** WAS 115 - BKN 121 (Winner: BKN ✓)
**Prediction:** WAS 105 - BKN 112
Score error: 10/9 | Total: pred 217, actual 236 (+19)

**Standout Players:**
  Jalen Wilson (BKN): 19p actual vs 7.7p pred (-11.3)
  E.J. Liddell (BKN): 15p actual vs 2.4p pred (-12.6)
  Jamir Watkins (WAS): 20p actual vs 9.1p pred (-10.9)
  Nolan Traore (BKN): 23p actual vs 11.8p pred (-11.2)
  Will Riley (WAS): 30p actual vs 18.3p pred (-11.7)

**Value Bet Results:**
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 230.5 — LOST
  ✓ MONEYLINE BKN -162 — WON
  ✗ TOTAL UNDER 230.5 — LOST
  ✓ MONEYLINE BKN -170 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD BKN -3.5 — WON
  ✓ SPREAD BKN -3.5 — WON

General Slate Analysis: WAS @ BKN

Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM

**Prediction:** WAS 105 - BKN 112 (BKN by 6, total 217)
**Confidence:** 91%

**WAS** 17-55 (#13) | Net: -10.7 | Off: 108.3 | Def: 119.0 | Rest: B2B
**BKN** 17-56 (#14) | Net: -9.4 | Off: 106.2 | Def: 115.5 | Rest: 1d rest
Projected pace: 101.7

**Injuries:**
  WAS: Anthony Davis (Out), Kyshawn George (Out), D'Angelo Russell (Day-To-Day), Alex Sarr (Out), Tristan Vukcevic (Day-To-Day), Cam Whitmore (Out), Trae Young (Out) (impact: -10.0 pts)
  BKN: Nic Claxton (Out), Noah Clowney (Day-To-Day), Egor Dëmin (Out), Terance Mann (Day-To-Day), Michael Porter Jr. (Out), Ben Saraf (Day-To-Day), Day'Ron Sharpe (Out), Ziaire Williams (Out), Danny Wolf (Out) (impact: -9.7 pts)

**Key Players:**
  WAS: Will Riley 18.3p/3.2r/2.4a | Justin Champagnie 13.3p/5.2r/1.4a | Jaden Hardy 11.7p/1.5r/1.1a
  BKN: Noah Clowney 12.6p/4.5r/1.3a | Nolan Traore 11.8p/2.7r/5.6a | Josh Minott 11.0p/3.8r/1.0a

**Value Bets:**
  TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (strong, EV $0.489/dollar)
  MONEYLINE BKN -162 (strong, EV $0.478/dollar)
  TOTAL UNDER 230.5 (strong, EV $0.458/dollar)

**Applicable Insights:**
  - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out
  - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M
  - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on 
  - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 (
  - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p 
  - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 (
  - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod
  - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN
  - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com
  - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2
  - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression
  - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte
  - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred

Washington Wizards 115 @ 121 Brooklyn Nets