Toronto Raptors 101 @ 115 Boston Celtics

April 05, 2026 | TD Garden | Final

Grade: A Prediction Recap
Winner: Correct

Called the winner and was in the ballpark on the score. Pretty clean.

TOR BOS Total
Predicted 107 117 224
Actual 101 115 216
Diff +6 +2 +8
Nailed It PTS within 3, REB/AST within 2
Jamison Battle Pred: 2/2/0 | Actual: 2/0/0
Jamal Shead Pred: 8/2/6 | Actual: 7/1/5
Alijah Martin Pred: 2/1/0 | Actual: 0/0/0
Ron Harper Jr. Pred: 3/1/1 | Actual: 0/0/0
Jonathan Mogbo Pred: 2/2/1 | Actual: 0/0/0

Toronto Raptors

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
RJ Barrett SG 35:23 15 5 4 0 1 3 2 6-17 35.3 1-4 25.0 2-2 100.0 -15.0
Scottie Barnes SF 32:05 10 6 8 3 0 4 2 5-14 35.7 0-3 0.0 0-0 0.0 -15.0
Ja'Kobe Walter PG 32:03 16 2 1 2 1 0 2 6-9 66.7 4-5 80.0 0-3 0.0 -5.0
Brandon Ingram PF 33:32 15 3 4 0 1 2 1 6-13 46.2 0-1 0.0 3-3 100.0 -13.0
Jakob Poeltl C 20:05 14 2 0 0 0 3 4 7-9 77.8 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -16.0
Jamison Battle 1:08 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-1 100.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Gradey Dick 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Chucky Hepburn DNP - Inactive
Trayce Jackson-Davis 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
A.J. Lawson 5:36 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0-1 0.0 0-1 0.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 24:03 10 6 4 0 0 0 2 2-4 50.0 2-3 66.7 4-4 100.0 -8.0
Alijah Martin 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Jonathan Mogbo 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 2.0
Collin Murray-Boyles 25:52 12 5 5 1 1 1 2 5-8 62.5 0-0 0.0 2-4 50.0 -1.0
Immanuel Quickley DNP - Inactive
Jamal Shead 25:40 7 1 5 0 0 2 1 2-8 25.0 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 -7.0
Garrett Temple DNP - Coach's Decision

Boston Celtics

Player Pos MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV PF FG FG% 3P 3P% FT FT% +/-
Jaylen Brown SG 35:26 26 6 3 2 0 5 2 11-20 55.0 1-3 33.3 3-5 60.0 13.0
Sam Hauser SF 26:29 8 2 1 0 0 1 1 3-7 42.9 1-4 25.0 1-1 100.0 9.0
Derrick White PG 34:53 10 6 6 1 0 1 1 4-7 57.1 2-3 66.7 0-0 0.0 20.0
Jayson Tatum PF 34:00 23 13 7 3 0 5 3 7-15 46.7 2-6 33.3 7-8 87.5 13.0
Neemias Queta C 33:52 18 7 4 0 3 0 4 9-10 90.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 30.0
Luka Garza DNP - Coach's Decision
Hugo González 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Ron Harper Jr. 1:08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 0-0 0.0 -2.0
Payton Pritchard 30:10 17 1 3 3 0 1 2 7-12 58.3 1-3 33.3 2-2 100.0 9.0
Baylor Scheierman 16:47 5 5 0 0 0 0 2 2-8 25.0 1-5 20.0 0-0 0.0 0.0
Max Shulga DNP - Coach's Decision
John Tonje DNP - Coach's Decision
Nikola Vučević 13:00 4 4 1 0 0 2 4 2-5 40.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -14.0
Jordan Walsh 13:07 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 2-4 50.0 0-2 0.0 0-0 0.0 -6.0
Amari Williams DNP - Coach's Decision
Add Analysis Entry
General Post-Game Review: TOR @ BOS
Apr 06, 2026 at 11:11 AM
**Grade: A** — Called the winner, score was close. **Result:** TOR 101 - BOS 115 (Winner: BOS ✓) **Prediction:** TOR 107 - BOS 117 Score error: 6/2 | Total: pred 224, actual 216 (-8) **Value Bet Results:** ✗ TOTAL OVER 219.5 — LOST ✗ TOTAL OVER 220.5 — LOST ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -455 — WON ✓ MONEYLINE BOS -480 — WON
General Slate Analysis: TOR @ BOS
Apr 05, 2026 at 10:32 AM
**Prediction:** TOR 107 - BOS 117 (BOS by 10, total 224) **Confidence:** 94% **TOR** 40-32 (#6) | Net: 1.5 | Off: 112.1 | Def: 110.6 | Rest: 1d rest **BOS** 48-24 (#2) | Net: 7.3 | Off: 116.1 | Def: 108.8 | Rest: 1d rest Projected pace: 99.5 **Injuries:** TOR: Chucky Hepburn (Out), Immanuel Quickley (Day-To-Day) (impact: -0.9 pts) BOS: Nikola Vučević (Out) (impact: -3.0 pts) **Key Players:** TOR: RJ Barrett 18.3p/4.2r/4.2a | Brandon Ingram 18.0p/4.9r/3.2a | Scottie Barnes 14.5p/6.1r/8.4a BOS: Jaylen Brown 29.2p/6.2r/6.0a | Payton Pritchard 23.8p/4.5r/6.1a | Jayson Tatum 22.4p/10.2r/6.7a **Value Bets:** TOTAL OVER 219.5 (slight, EV $0.150/dollar) TOTAL OVER 220.5 (slight, EV $0.147/dollar) MONEYLINE BOS -455 (moderate, EV $0.145/dollar) **Applicable Insights:** - [model] PROP TRAP: Season-avg-based unders on role players from depleted/tanking teams are unreliable. When star players are out - [model] PROP CALIBRATION: 'Strong edge' plays (biggest gap between season avg and book line) are the WORST tier, not the best. M - [model] PROP SIGNAL NOISE: EDGE, REGRESSION, and FADE signal types show extreme day-to-day variance and should not be relied on - [model] USAGE BOOST OVERCORRECTION (Mar 6): First night with usage adjustment. Props 25/64 (39%). Big-boost (>25%) plays 11/28 ( - [model] BLOWOUT MINUTES KILL PROPS: NYK@DEN 142-103 — Murray played 17:36 (adj avg 33.9, actual 12p). Brunson 33:48 but only 9p - [model] GAME MARGIN vs PROP CORRELATION (Mar 6): POR@HOU 7pt game: 7/12 props (58%). LAC@SAS 4pt: 3/9 (33%). IND@LAL 11pt: 3/6 ( - [model] GAME PREDICTIONS STRONG (Mar 6): 6/7 winners (86%), value bets 22/32 (69%). NYK ML best bet hit massively (142-103). Mod - [model] Mar 6 calibration changes validated: props improved from 39% (Mar 6) to 54.8% (Mar 7) after reducing PROP_USAGE_CONFIDEN - [model] Close game prop thesis confirmed 2 nights running: LAC@MEM (pred margin 3, actual margin 3) went 6/8 (75%) on props. Com - [model] Big usage boost (>25%) still underperforms at 36% (4/11) on Mar 7. Keyonte George had +60% boost (adj avg 38.5, scored 2 - [model] REGRESSION_OVER signal hit only 38% (3/8) on Mar 7 vs SEASON_EDGE at 61% (14/23). Two nights of data now show regression - [model] Mar 7 game predictions 4/6 (67%). Two F grades: ORL@MIN predicted MIN by 9, ORL won by 27 (36pt error). BKN@DET predicte - [model] Blowout discount working correctly: BKN@DET (pred margin 18) had 0 prop plays filtered out entirely. Mar 6 NYK@DEN (pred